{"title":"The lens of the quantity theory of money to disentangle the perceived relationship between money growth and inflation: a PSVAR approach","authors":"A. Focacci, Angelo Focacci, Alessandro Faenza","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00269-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00269-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140991092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A computational model of the effects of borrower default on the stability of P2P lending platforms","authors":"Evangelos Katsamakas, J. Manuel Sanchez-Cartas","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00280-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00280-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has attracted scholarly attention because of its economic significance and potential to democratize access to finance. However, P2P lending platforms face many challenges and failures that we need to understand more clearly. We build a computational model to study how borrower default affects P2P platform lending. We show that borrower default disrupts the P2P network formation process and undermines platform stability. Moreover, we find that defaults increase the inequality in accessing funding and provide a rationale for using curation rules, widely used in P2P platforms, in contrast to P2P insurance, which fosters cascading defaults. We also address a new trend in P2P lending platforms in which large companies (institutional investors) play an increasingly important role. We find that the presence of large companies creates a denser network (more loans) but generates a trade-off between making the platform more resilient to cascading defaults and more dependent on specific players. Overall, we explain how borrower defaults affect platform stability and what makes a platform vulnerable, threatening its survival. We discuss research and managerial insights into platform stability and the economic effect of P2P lending platforms.</p>","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140933828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chiara Oldani, Giovanni S. F. Bruno, Marcello Signorelli
{"title":"Economic policy uncertainty and cryptocurrencies","authors":"Chiara Oldani, Giovanni S. F. Bruno, Marcello Signorelli","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00271-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00271-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper focuses on the relationship between cryptocurrencies and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks by adopting robust econometric techniques. Results on monthly data from 2016 to 2022 confirm that the volumes of cryptos are stationary, and the short- and long-run impacts of uncertainty shocks are significantly positive, and, in most cases, begin to show already in the first six months after the shock. When uncertainty significantly prevails, investors increase their demand for cryptos. The ARDL(12,11) specifications for Bitcoin show a significant increase in volumes of around 1% occurring over a year after a unit increase in economic policy indices. Conclusions from the findings are related to supervision, and monitoring of markets and financial stability.</p>","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140933777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of the European Insider Trading and Market Manipulation Regulation on the volatility and abnormal returns of the stock market in Poland","authors":"Janusz Kudła, Barbara Gajus","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00270-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00270-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article raises the question of whether the European Insider Trading and Market Manipulation Regulation (Market Abuse Regulation—MAR) affected the behaviour of investors around the date of the final financial report announcement. The MAR is a relatively recent regulation in the European Union and provides stricter rules for information disclosure than the previous Market Abuse Directive. One can expect that this regulation should improve the information flow from companies to investors, lowering the volatility of stock returns and abnormal rate of return around the date of the final report. To verify this hypothesis, the panel regressions and ANOVA analysis were applied to the stock prices of 60 medium and large-size companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the years 2013–2018. The analysis demonstrates that implementing the regulation has increased the average volatility of stock prices, whereas prices in the period before and after the publication period of annual financial reports remained unaffected. It indicates that the information provided was of lower quality, despite the increase in the information available to the public. Therefore, the anti-abusive regulation requires a modification of rules applied to small stock markets as they do not meet their objectives.</p>","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140811321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From volatility to stability: understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads","authors":"Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00274-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00274-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper contributes to the understanding of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets by examining the response of CDS spreads to macroeconomic factors and exploring extreme value dependence and its relation to economic cycles. The study focuses on four emerging countries in the Asia–Pacific sovereign CDS markets from 2009 to 2023 and utilises a dynamic quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) approach to account for statistical stylized facts. The findings reveal significant relationships between economic growth, inflation, volatility index (VIX), interest rates and real effective exchange rate on CDS spreads, with varying effects across quantiles and countries. Additionally, the study explores the impact of economic expansion and contraction on CDS spreads, highlighting the significant negative effects of the expansion in certain countries and the positive impacts of contraction phases. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in risk management and policy decision-making, emphasizing the need for policies that promote sustainable growth; manage market risks during volatile periods and consider the implications of interest rates, exchange rates and economic phases on financial stability. The empirical model used is evaluated for dynamic stability, and policy implications are discussed in light of the research outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140803962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An empirical examination of the effect of domestic monetary policy on external commercial borrowings to India","authors":"Virender Kumar, Poonam","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00275-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00275-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140658414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How herding led to a speculative bubble during a period of severely negative macro fundamentals: the case of Istanbul stock market","authors":"Umit Erol, Burak Dogan","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00267-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00267-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140661899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal policy and real exchange rate variations in India","authors":"Biswajit Maitra, Dhritiman Ganguli","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00276-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00276-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140678698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exchange rate spillovers in the CIS","authors":"Salome Giorgadze","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00268-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00268-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper estimates macroeconomic connectedness in the CIS (the Commonwealth of Independent States) through risk spillovers via the exchange rates. We collect high frequency daily data on exchange rates from January 2006 to July 2020 and use the Diebold-Yilmaz method of variance decomposition, as well as the Barunik-Krehlik method of frequency variance decomposition, for the analysis. We find that macroeconomic risk in the region increases significantly during macroeconomic shocks and that it has maintained a higher average level since 2015, a difficult year full of regional and global challenges. Our findings also show that currencies managed by more flexible exchange rate regimes on average transmit macroeconomic risk in the region. Frequency variance decomposition demonstrates that while the majority of risk transmission is smaller-scale and short-lived, spillovers from main regional and global crises are bigger and more persistent. Although short-term connectedness dominates the overall variance of the system, more severe macroeconomic shocks resonate greatly on all time horizons, i.e. they impact the system for a longer period of time and more deeply.</p>","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140587046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Umar Farooq, Adel Ahmed, Mosab I. Tabash, Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy, Yasmeen Elsantil
{"title":"External debt and economic growth: moderating role of governance in South Asia Region","authors":"Umar Farooq, Adel Ahmed, Mosab I. Tabash, Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy, Yasmeen Elsantil","doi":"10.1007/s40822-024-00264-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00264-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The current analysis explores the effect of external debt on economic growth and how better governance interacts with this relationship. For empirical assessment, we sample 20 years of data (2000–2019) of South Asian economies and consider the FMOLS and DOLS models to model the regression among the variables. The statistical analysis reveals a significant negative effect of both long- and short-term external debts, while governance has a significant positive effect on economic growth. In addition, the positive moderating role of governance was also observed in the nexus of external debt and economic growth. Enhancing governance can make external borrowing beneficial for economic progress. The empirical analysis posits multiple policies regarding the reduction of external borrowings, enhancement of the quality of governance, and effective utilization of external debt for development projects through better governance systems. By exploring the empirical relationship between external debt, governance, and economic growth, this study provides original evidence on how to enhance the utilization of external debt to ensure economic growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140587040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}