加息是否会导致货币政策的几个目标--抑制通胀、维护金融稳定和保持产出增长--落空?

IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
Dorothea Schäfer, Willi Semmler
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引用次数: 0

摘要

日冕危机后,乌克兰战争爆发后,美国和欧洲所有商品的价格水平都出人意料地快速持续上涨。美国联邦储备委员会于 2022 年 3 月、欧洲央行于 2022 年 7 月开始了历史上独一无二的加息,以应对尚未开始的工资价格螺旋式上涨。在这篇文章中,我们表明能源、大宗商品和食品是通货膨胀的主要驱动力。因此,央行通过历史上罕见的大幅加息来削弱劳动力需求的目标似乎并不明智。我们认为,目前的措施无法实现所有目标:减缓通胀、稳定金融市场和维持增长。如果利率居高不下,但外部力量出现并产生持久影响,使通胀率居高不下,特别是在较小的新兴国家,那么就很难通过高利率政策和国家对价格和工资-菲利普斯曲线的控制,在国家或地区范围内抵消这种情况。利率上调的巨大负面影响会增加不进行必要投资的风险,尤其会削弱特别弱势就业群体的议价能力。还需要其他工具来抑制和控制通货膨胀,例如对供应中断的部门进行更多投资,大规模扩大对可再生能源的投资。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?

Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?

After the corona crisis, and even more so when the war in Ukraine struck, the price levels of all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. The FED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interest rate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article we show that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason, central banks' goal of weakening demand for labor through historically large interest rate hikes seems unwise. We argue that the current measures cannot achieve all of their objectives: slowing inflation, stabilizing financial markets and sustaining growth. If interest rates remain high, but external forces emerge with a lasting effect and keep inflation rates high, especially in smaller emerging countries, it will be difficult to counteract this on a country or regional basis through high interest rate policy and national control of the price- and wage-Phillips curve. Significant negative side effects of interest rate hikes increase the risk of not making the necessary investments and, in particular, weaken the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Other tools are needed to curb inflation and keep it under control, for example more investment in sectors with supply disruptions and a massive expansion of investment in renewable energy.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
2.90%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The mission of Eurasian Economic Review is to publish peer-reviewed empirical research papers that test, extend, or build theory and contribute to practice. All empirical methods - including, but not limited to, qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, and any combination of methods - are welcome. Empirical, theoretical and methodological articles from all fields of finance and applied macroeconomics are featured in the journal. Theoretical and/or review articles that integrate existing bodies of research and that provide new insights into the field are highly encouraged. The journal has a broad scope, addressing such issues as: financial systems and regulation, corporate and start-up finance, macro and sustainable finance, finance and innovation, consumer finance, public policies on financial markets within local, regional, national and international contexts, money and banking, and the interface of labor and financial economics. The macroeconomics coverage includes topics from monetary economics, labor economics, international economics and development economics. Eurasian Economic Review is published quarterly. To be published in Eurasian Economic Review, a manuscript must make strong empirical and/or theoretical contributions and highlight the significance of those contributions to our field. Consequently, preference is given to submissions that test, extend, or build strong theoretical frameworks while empirically examining issues with high importance for theory and practice. Eurasian Economic Review is not tied to any national context. Although it focuses on Europe and Asia, all papers from related fields on any region or country are highly encouraged. Single country studies, cross-country or regional studies can be submitted.
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