{"title":"加息是否会导致货币政策的几个目标--抑制通胀、维护金融稳定和保持产出增长--落空?","authors":"Dorothea Schäfer, Willi Semmler","doi":"10.1007/s40822-023-00256-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>After the corona crisis, and even more so when the war in Ukraine struck, the price levels of all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. The FED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interest rate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article we show that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason, central banks' goal of weakening demand for labor through historically large interest rate hikes seems unwise. We argue that the current measures cannot achieve all of their objectives: slowing inflation, stabilizing financial markets and sustaining growth. If interest rates remain high, but external forces emerge with a lasting effect and keep inflation rates high, especially in smaller emerging countries, it will be difficult to counteract this on a country or regional basis through high interest rate policy and national control of the price- and wage-Phillips curve. Significant negative side effects of interest rate hikes increase the risk of not making the necessary investments and, in particular, weaken the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Other tools are needed to curb inflation and keep it under control, for example more investment in sectors with supply disruptions and a massive expansion of investment in renewable energy.</p>","PeriodicalId":45064,"journal":{"name":"Eurasian Economic Review","volume":"2013 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?\",\"authors\":\"Dorothea Schäfer, Willi Semmler\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s40822-023-00256-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>After the corona crisis, and even more so when the war in Ukraine struck, the price levels of all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. The FED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interest rate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article we show that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason, central banks' goal of weakening demand for labor through historically large interest rate hikes seems unwise. We argue that the current measures cannot achieve all of their objectives: slowing inflation, stabilizing financial markets and sustaining growth. If interest rates remain high, but external forces emerge with a lasting effect and keep inflation rates high, especially in smaller emerging countries, it will be difficult to counteract this on a country or regional basis through high interest rate policy and national control of the price- and wage-Phillips curve. Significant negative side effects of interest rate hikes increase the risk of not making the necessary investments and, in particular, weaken the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Other tools are needed to curb inflation and keep it under control, for example more investment in sectors with supply disruptions and a massive expansion of investment in renewable energy.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45064,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Eurasian Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"2013 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Eurasian Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-023-00256-6\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Eurasian Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-023-00256-6","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Is interest rate hiking a recipe for missing several goals of monetary policy—beating inflation, preserving financial stability, and keeping up output growth?
After the corona crisis, and even more so when the war in Ukraine struck, the price levels of all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. The FED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interest rate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article we show that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason, central banks' goal of weakening demand for labor through historically large interest rate hikes seems unwise. We argue that the current measures cannot achieve all of their objectives: slowing inflation, stabilizing financial markets and sustaining growth. If interest rates remain high, but external forces emerge with a lasting effect and keep inflation rates high, especially in smaller emerging countries, it will be difficult to counteract this on a country or regional basis through high interest rate policy and national control of the price- and wage-Phillips curve. Significant negative side effects of interest rate hikes increase the risk of not making the necessary investments and, in particular, weaken the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Other tools are needed to curb inflation and keep it under control, for example more investment in sectors with supply disruptions and a massive expansion of investment in renewable energy.
期刊介绍:
The mission of Eurasian Economic Review is to publish peer-reviewed empirical research papers that test, extend, or build theory and contribute to practice. All empirical methods - including, but not limited to, qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, and any combination of methods - are welcome. Empirical, theoretical and methodological articles from all fields of finance and applied macroeconomics are featured in the journal. Theoretical and/or review articles that integrate existing bodies of research and that provide new insights into the field are highly encouraged. The journal has a broad scope, addressing such issues as: financial systems and regulation, corporate and start-up finance, macro and sustainable finance, finance and innovation, consumer finance, public policies on financial markets within local, regional, national and international contexts, money and banking, and the interface of labor and financial economics. The macroeconomics coverage includes topics from monetary economics, labor economics, international economics and development economics.
Eurasian Economic Review is published quarterly. To be published in Eurasian Economic Review, a manuscript must make strong empirical and/or theoretical contributions and highlight the significance of those contributions to our field. Consequently, preference is given to submissions that test, extend, or build strong theoretical frameworks while empirically examining issues with high importance for theory and practice. Eurasian Economic Review is not tied to any national context. Although it focuses on Europe and Asia, all papers from related fields on any region or country are highly encouraged. Single country studies, cross-country or regional studies can be submitted.