OPEC Energy Review最新文献

{"title":"Exploring the impact of oil revenue on Nigeria's economic growth: A non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag model","authors":"Olufunke Mercy Popoola, Noah Cheruiyot Mutai, Valdrin Dervishaj, Cuong Manh Nguyen, Sushma Kumari, Gunjan Bhatia","doi":"10.1111/opec.12314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12314","url":null,"abstract":"The influence of oil proceeds on an economy remains a subject of debate among scholars. Most scholars agree that income from oil has direct effect on economic expansion. We explore the impact of revenue from oil on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2016. Data were collected from the Nigerian Central Bank and the World Data Indicators. We employed a non‐linear autoregressive distributive lag approach to analyse the data. The outcome exposes a direct and significant association between revenue from oil and GDP both in the short and long term. Trade openness exhibits a significant negative effect on GDP from both short‐ and long‐term perspectives. Gross capital formation directly influences GDP in the short and long run, with significant impacts primarily in the long term. The study suggests that revenue from oil has a direct and significant impact on the Nigerian economy during the period from 1981 to 2016. We recommend that the Nigerian government create a conducive environment for private investment to thrive, thereby sustaining the nation's growth potential. Additionally, the government should wisely utilise revenue from oil to revitalise non‐booming productive sectors in the economy, thus diversifying revenue sources.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142193481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The contribution of technological innovation, trade and economic development to renewable energy use in the United Kingdom, Germany and Turkey","authors":"Mounir El‐Karimi, Karim Belcaid","doi":"10.1111/opec.12313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12313","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the causal impact of the technological innovation, trade openness and economic growth on the renewable energy use (RE) in Germany, the United Kingdom and Turkey. To this end, Breitung and Candelon (<jats:italic>Journal of Econometrics</jats:italic>, 2006, 132, 363) causality test linked to Toda and Yamamoto (<jats:italic>Journal of Econometrics</jats:italic>, 1995, 66, 225) procedure is applied on data for the period 1985–2021. Our results indicate that the German RE is mainly affected by the technological innovation and economic growth, but over the long‐term. Regarding the United Kingdom, its RE dynamics is found to be significantly impacted by the technological progress, trade openness and output growth all together, but only during the long‐run. However, in Turkey, the RE long‐term pattern is mainly led by the technological innovation, while the RE short‐term dynamics is primarily drown by the trade openness. This study provides policymakers a better understanding of RE pattern to formulate appropriate policies dealing with energy security, sustainable development and environmental pollution.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141932067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling and projecting regional electricity demand for Saudi Arabia","authors":"Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary","doi":"10.1111/opec.12312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12312","url":null,"abstract":"We address the shortcomings associated with modelling national aggregate electricity consumption in a large and diverse country with unique regional characteristics. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, we employ an econometric approach to analyse the distinct responses of its regions to electricity prices and income levels. The study employs a general to specific modelling approach, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019 within the conventional energy demand theoretical framework. Our region‐specific estimations reveal income and price as the primary drivers, with the southern region exhibiting a higher sensitivity to income, while the eastern region shows a comparatively smaller response to prices attributed to its significant industrial presence. Elasticities for the central and western regions align with previous research, while eastern and southern regions exhibit larger elasticities. Weather impacts are observed only in the warmest western region, characterised by a substantial share of residential electricity consumption. Furthermore, we utilise our estimated model to project a regional baseline demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia and demonstrate how prices affect regions differently. This information is important for an oil‐exporting country like Saudi Arabia, considering the diverse fuel mix used for electricity generation across regions. Assuming moderate economic growth and no price change, our baseline projections indicate a total electricity demand of 366 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"476 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141739935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of Kuwait long‐run and short‐run economic growth","authors":"Ahmad Alawadhi, Siddig Salih, Abdullah Aljaber, Sulayman Al‐Qudsi","doi":"10.1111/opec.12304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12304","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examined the relationship between growth and its demand side determinants in Kuwait from 1970 to 2020. A set of autoregressive distributed lag models were applied to estimate the long‐ and short‐run relationships between economic growth and its determinants. The results suggest that exports, gross fixed capital formation (investment), imports and household spending exhibit a long‐run relationship with economic growth. While exports, gross fixed capital formation, share of government spending in GDP and household spending exhibit short‐run relationship with growth. Moreover, the results suggest that long‐ and short‐run economic growth in Kuwait is mainly driven by exports and to a lesser extent household spending. As Kuwaiti exports are dominated by oil exports and oil production is limited to the organisation of petroleum exporting countries quota this limits the policy makers from the most effective tool to stimulate growth. In this context Kuwait needs to enact policies to diversify exports, build a local industrial base, utilise imports to feed into non‐oil export sectors, direct investment spending to develop non‐oil industries and encourage FDI to facilitate innovation and technology transfers and spill overs to progress from a volatile oil‐based economy to a more diversified and sustainable growth path.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140800501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CO2 emissions–economic growth nexus: Validity of EKC in oil‐exporting and oil‐importing countries","authors":"Joseph Tuakolon Tokpah, Andisheh Saliminezhad, Huseyin Ozdeser","doi":"10.1111/opec.12301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12301","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to examine and compare the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve and the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, per capita GDP, fossil fuel consumption, oil prices and foreign direct investment in advanced oil‐importing and oil‐exporting countries from 1970 to 2020. The researchers consider these nations for their dependency on oil resources and their different economic characteristics. The Westerlund (<jats:italic>Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics</jats:italic>, 2007, 69, 709) co‐integration test shows that the studied variables are co‐integrated in the long run in both panels of the countries. The pooled mean group‐autoregressive distributed lag (PMG‐ARDL) model established by Pesaran et al. (<jats:italic>Journal of the American Statistical Association</jats:italic>, 1999, 94, 621), which assesses the short‐ and long‐run nexus between the variables of interest, detects statistically significant associations, providing evidence to support the hypothesis of EKC in both groups. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and fossil fuel consumption have long‐term positive effects on CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emissions. The main difference between both groups of countries is that oil price has a positive effect on CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emissions in oil‐exporting countries, while it has a negative effect on environmental degradation in oil‐importing countries. The study suggests increasing investment in renewable energy infrastructure by encouraging research and development, providing subsidies and tax incentives for renewable energy companies and promoting large‐scale renewable energy projects as they contribute to environmental quality.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140602407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Explaining the GDP trend of oil‐exporting countries during COVID‐19 period: The role of governance, adaptive stringency and fiscal policy","authors":"Mahieddine Adnan Ghecham","doi":"10.1111/opec.12300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12300","url":null,"abstract":"This paper brings to light the factors that played major role in explaining the trend of the economic growth of a number of oil‐exporting countries during the pandemic period, specifically, during the years 2020–2021 and 2022. The results show that the institutional factors, <jats:italic>adaptive</jats:italic> restrictions as well as the degree of trade openness and the size of government fiscal intervention were major determinants of the trend of the GDP of the countries in question. Based on the findings, the paper recommends some policy measures and highlights important future challenges that test efforts of globalization.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140074340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oil price shocks pass-through to domestic prices in Nigeria","authors":"Samuel Orekoya, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, Idris Tijani","doi":"10.1111/opec.12298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12298","url":null,"abstract":"The study investigated the potential non-linear impacts of fluctuations in oil prices on domestic prices in Nigeria. Utilising the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the study revealed the presence of asymmetry in the behaviour of domestic prices. Both forms of oil price shocks were observed to have a negative influence on domestic prices in the short term, with only positive oil price shocks demonstrating statistical significance. However, in the long run, a distinct pattern emerged where a decrease in oil prices significantly affected domestic prices. Additionally, analysis of VAR impulse response showed a consistently negative reaction of domestic prices to oil price shocks, falling below the steady-state equilibrium. The study concluded that changes in oil prices, in conjunction with other macroeconomic variables, affected the prices of domestic goods in Nigeria, whether in the short or long term. This underscored the complexity of Nigeria's economic landscape. Consequently, it is advisable to prudently invest excess revenue generated from rising oil prices to mitigate the adverse impacts of negative oil shocks on the economy.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139950306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global uncertainties, geopolitical risks and price exuberance: Evidence from international energy market","authors":"Suleiman O. Mamman, Jamilu Iliyasu, Umar A. Ahmed, Felicity Salami","doi":"10.1111/opec.12297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12297","url":null,"abstract":"The interaction of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks with energy price fluctuations has remained a critical global issue. This interaction can impact several regions' macroeconomic performance and welfare by making fundamental energy price forecasting more difficult, which may lead to exuberant behaviour. To help producers, consumers, and regulators make informed decisions in the face of volatile and uncertain energy markets, it is critical to highlight how these uncertainties influence price exuberance. In this light, this study examines the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on international energy price exuberance using monthly data from January 1990 to October 2022. The study employs supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) and generalised augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) tests to identify energy price exuberance. Firstly, consistent with exuberant behaviour, the tests identify seven episodes of explosive behaviour in the international energy prices within the sample. Secondly, this study applies the Logit model to estimate the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on price exuberance. The estimates suggest that the heightening of global uncertainty may deflate the price exuberance. This study also observes that adverse geopolitical risks (threats and acts) in the world and Ukraine amplify the likelihood of price exuberance in the market. However, adverse geopolitical risk (GPR) in Russia negatively impacted the formation of price exuberance. This finding implies that policymakers can use global uncertainty and geopolitical risks as early warning indicators of probable price exuberance in the international energy market. The findings also indicate the need for a buffer system and safe passage for the flow of energy supply in a geopolitical conflict or a major global event. The study further shows the need for a coordinated effort in innovation, research, and development to enhance energy efficiency and minimise reliance on fossil fuels, which these uncertainties may not significantly influence.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139950641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does energy consumption improve human capital development? Empirical evidence from panel non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag in Africa","authors":"John Bosco Dramani, Bright Tetteh, Mahawiya Sulemana, Godfred Aawarr","doi":"10.1111/opec.12294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12294","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The contributions of human capital to improvement in socio‐economic outcomes have generated significant interest in its determinants. On one hand, there is the orthodox view which states that energy consumption does not promote human capital development. In contrast, the heterodoxies argue that energy consumption is an essential driver of human capital development. Thus, we explore the asymmetric effects of energy consumption on human capital development for 22 African countries from 2000 to 2018 within the framework of panel non‐linear ARDL (NARDL). The long‐run results indicate that energy consumption is vital for human capital development. Specifically, in the long‐run, positive and negative shocks to energy consumption significantly improve human development. In addition, we find that economic growth, government effectiveness and foreign direct investment improve human capital only in the long‐run, while carbon dioxide emission retards it in both the long‐ and short‐runs. We found similar results for oil and non‐oil producing countries, ECOWAS, SADC, CEN‐SAD and COMESA countries.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135878217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does price of oil and inflation have an impact on the GDP of Africa's largest net oil importers? Evidence from a non‐linear heterogeneous panel ARDL","authors":"M. T. Saidu","doi":"10.1111/opec.12293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12293","url":null,"abstract":"The article explores the non‐linear relationship between oil prices, inflation, and GDP in eight African countries that import oil from other nations. The study uses various econometric techniques, including symmetric and asymmetric dynamic panel ARDL models, mean group, and pooled mean group approaches, to examine quarterly data from 1983 Q2 to 2020 Q4. The analysis looks at both short‐term and long‐term variations to measure the positive and negative effects of oil prices and inflation on GDP. The findings reveal that the variables are related, but there are significant non‐linearities in the long run. While both rising oil prices and inflation have a positive impact on GDP in most instances, lower oil prices and inflation might have a neutral or negative impact.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42504248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}