OPEC Energy Review最新文献

{"title":"A multiplicative log mean Divisia index decomposition analysis of energy‐related carbon emissions in Pakistan: From the perspective of economic development phases","authors":"Asma Jabeen","doi":"10.1111/opec.12299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12299","url":null,"abstract":"To successfully implement mitigation policies, it is first needed to identify the factors that contribute to carbon emissions. Based on the extended Kaya identity approach, this study investigates the driving factors of energy‐related carbon emissions in Pakistan from 1990 to 2019 using the multiplicative LMDI‐I decomposition technique with no residual term. The decomposition results reveal that the population and affluence contributed significantly to accelerating carbon emissions from energy consumption across all the sub‐periods. The cumulative effect of population size increased to 2.286 times in 2019, far greater than the impact of other factors. The cumulative effect of economic activity per person reached 1.566 in 2019. The impact of fuel quality and energy intensity is relatively minor (as the index value is less than one) most of the time. The cumulative effect of renewable energy penetration has increased from 0.998 in 1990 to 1.034 in 2019 due to the country's less mature renewable energy technologies. Fossil fuel switching is a factor that reduces carbon emissions, as the index value decreased from 0.945 in 1990 to 0.918 in 2019. The results of the study contain helpful information for lowering carbon emissions.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140084579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oil price shocks pass-through to domestic prices in Nigeria","authors":"Samuel Orekoya, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, Idris Tijani","doi":"10.1111/opec.12298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12298","url":null,"abstract":"The study investigated the potential non-linear impacts of fluctuations in oil prices on domestic prices in Nigeria. Utilising the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the study revealed the presence of asymmetry in the behaviour of domestic prices. Both forms of oil price shocks were observed to have a negative influence on domestic prices in the short term, with only positive oil price shocks demonstrating statistical significance. However, in the long run, a distinct pattern emerged where a decrease in oil prices significantly affected domestic prices. Additionally, analysis of VAR impulse response showed a consistently negative reaction of domestic prices to oil price shocks, falling below the steady-state equilibrium. The study concluded that changes in oil prices, in conjunction with other macroeconomic variables, affected the prices of domestic goods in Nigeria, whether in the short or long term. This underscored the complexity of Nigeria's economic landscape. Consequently, it is advisable to prudently invest excess revenue generated from rising oil prices to mitigate the adverse impacts of negative oil shocks on the economy.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139950306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global uncertainties, geopolitical risks and price exuberance: Evidence from international energy market","authors":"Suleiman O. Mamman, Jamilu Iliyasu, Umar A. Ahmed, Felicity Salami","doi":"10.1111/opec.12297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12297","url":null,"abstract":"The interaction of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks with energy price fluctuations has remained a critical global issue. This interaction can impact several regions' macroeconomic performance and welfare by making fundamental energy price forecasting more difficult, which may lead to exuberant behaviour. To help producers, consumers, and regulators make informed decisions in the face of volatile and uncertain energy markets, it is critical to highlight how these uncertainties influence price exuberance. In this light, this study examines the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on international energy price exuberance using monthly data from January 1990 to October 2022. The study employs supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) and generalised augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) tests to identify energy price exuberance. Firstly, consistent with exuberant behaviour, the tests identify seven episodes of explosive behaviour in the international energy prices within the sample. Secondly, this study applies the Logit model to estimate the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on price exuberance. The estimates suggest that the heightening of global uncertainty may deflate the price exuberance. This study also observes that adverse geopolitical risks (threats and acts) in the world and Ukraine amplify the likelihood of price exuberance in the market. However, adverse geopolitical risk (GPR) in Russia negatively impacted the formation of price exuberance. This finding implies that policymakers can use global uncertainty and geopolitical risks as early warning indicators of probable price exuberance in the international energy market. The findings also indicate the need for a buffer system and safe passage for the flow of energy supply in a geopolitical conflict or a major global event. The study further shows the need for a coordinated effort in innovation, research, and development to enhance energy efficiency and minimise reliance on fossil fuels, which these uncertainties may not significantly influence.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139950641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of skilled labour migration on energy, environment and economic growth in home and host countries: A computable general equilibrium analysis","authors":"Shujaat Abbas, Mehdi Nejati, Fatemeh Taleghani","doi":"10.1111/opec.12296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12296","url":null,"abstract":"Migration of both skilled labour force can alter economic conditions and environmental sustainability of both host and home countries. Therefore, this study aims to explore the effect of skilled labour force migration on economic growth, energy demand and environmental sustainability of home and host countries. This objective is realised by constructing a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for developed and developing countries. Furthermore, developing countries are subcategorized into four groups such as high income, upper middle‐income, lower middle‐income and low‐income countries. The results of policy simulations indicate that skilled labour migration can reduce the gross domestic product, welfare, energy consumption and carbon emissions in home countries, and the reverse is true for the host countries. Whereas the inflow of remittances to home counties can enhance their economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, while reverse trend of remittances outflow is observed in host countries. Similarly, reverse migration can increase economic increase in developing countries along with increasing energy demand and carbon emissions. The study urges for developed countries for utilise skilled immigrants in environment friendly manufacturing industries.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139615232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling and forecasting India's electricity consumption using artificial neural networks","authors":"A. Bandyopadhyay, Bishal Dey Sarkar, M. Hossain, Soumen Rej, Mohidul Alam Mallick","doi":"10.1111/opec.12295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12295","url":null,"abstract":"Precise electricity forecasting is a pertinent challenge in effectively controlling the supply and demand of power. This is due to the inherent volatility of electricity, which cannot be stored and must be utilised promptly. Thus, this study develops a framework integrating canonical cointegrating regressions (CCR), time series artificial neural network (ANN) and a multilayer perceptron ANN model for analysing and projecting India's gross electricity consumption to 2030. Annual data for the years 1961–2020 have been collected for variables like gross domestic product (GDP), population, inflation GDP deflator (annual %), annual average temperature and electricity consumption. The study was conducted in three phases. In the first phase of the study, the CCR method was used to check the significance of the selected variables. In the second phase, the projected values of independent variables (GDP, population, inflation GDP deflator [annual %] and annual average temperature) were predicted using the time series ANN model. Finally, a multilayer perceptron ANN model with independent variables was used to forecast the gross electricity consumption in India by 2030. The result shows that the electricity consumption in India will increase by around 50% in the next 10 years, reaching over 1800 TWh in 2030. The proposed approach can be utilised to effectively implement energy policies, as an accurate prediction of energy consumption can help capture future demand.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139527180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does energy consumption improve human capital development? Empirical evidence from panel non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag in Africa","authors":"John Bosco Dramani, Bright Tetteh, Mahawiya Sulemana, Godfred Aawarr","doi":"10.1111/opec.12294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12294","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The contributions of human capital to improvement in socio‐economic outcomes have generated significant interest in its determinants. On one hand, there is the orthodox view which states that energy consumption does not promote human capital development. In contrast, the heterodoxies argue that energy consumption is an essential driver of human capital development. Thus, we explore the asymmetric effects of energy consumption on human capital development for 22 African countries from 2000 to 2018 within the framework of panel non‐linear ARDL (NARDL). The long‐run results indicate that energy consumption is vital for human capital development. Specifically, in the long‐run, positive and negative shocks to energy consumption significantly improve human development. In addition, we find that economic growth, government effectiveness and foreign direct investment improve human capital only in the long‐run, while carbon dioxide emission retards it in both the long‐ and short‐runs. We found similar results for oil and non‐oil producing countries, ECOWAS, SADC, CEN‐SAD and COMESA countries.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135878217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does price of oil and inflation have an impact on the GDP of Africa's largest net oil importers? Evidence from a non‐linear heterogeneous panel ARDL","authors":"M. T. Saidu","doi":"10.1111/opec.12293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12293","url":null,"abstract":"The article explores the non‐linear relationship between oil prices, inflation, and GDP in eight African countries that import oil from other nations. The study uses various econometric techniques, including symmetric and asymmetric dynamic panel ARDL models, mean group, and pooled mean group approaches, to examine quarterly data from 1983 Q2 to 2020 Q4. The analysis looks at both short‐term and long‐term variations to measure the positive and negative effects of oil prices and inflation on GDP. The findings reveal that the variables are related, but there are significant non‐linearities in the long run. While both rising oil prices and inflation have a positive impact on GDP in most instances, lower oil prices and inflation might have a neutral or negative impact.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42504248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attaining environmental sustainability amidst the interacting forces of natural resource rent and foreign direct investment: Is Norway any different?","authors":"E. Udemba, Vishal Dagar, Xuhui Peng, Leila Dagher","doi":"10.1111/opec.12292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12292","url":null,"abstract":"This is a study of Norway's sustainable environment development amidst the interactions of natural resources, external investment (FDI) and economic development. Much has been done with respect to the study of Norway's economic performance in relation to the link between the natural resources and FDI with little emphasis on the environmental performance of the resource‐based economy. Also, Norway is classified as among the top countries in Europe with a greater percentage of adopting renewable energy, and no study has done a critical review of the impact of natural resources and FDI which are part of drivers of carbon emission that can counter the positive impact of renewable energy towards the Norway's sustainable environment. On this basis, this study adopts a time series data of Norway, 1970 to 2018 to study its environmental performance. Approaches such as structural break analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)‐bound testing and Granger causality estimations are utilised in this study for in‐depth analysis of the subject. Findings from ARDL confirmed a positive association between fuels and carbon emission, other indicators (economic growth and natural resources) are improving the quality of the country's environment. FDI even though shows positive sign remains insignificant in impacting the environmental performance in the short run reverted to a significant negative relationship with carbon emissions. This confirms the pollution halo hypothesis and rejects the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) for Norway, and this trend can be sustained with the constant implementation of environmental rules in the country. Granger test confirms, a one‐way transition from fossil fuels to carbon emission, from carbon emission to growth, and from economic growth to fossil fuels. Also, a two‐way transmission is found between fossil fuels and FDI. These findings from Granger causality are consistent with the findings from ARDL, hence, two ways interactions between FDI and fossil fuel energy source consumption from Granger causality and the two variables (fossil fuels and FDI) are seen impacting on Norway's environmental performance. Findings from the estimates suggest that natural resources and FDI are mitigating pollution, hence, Norway's policy is expected to be resources and FDI driven in sustainable environment development.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46732345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of remittance outflows: The case of Saudi Arabia","authors":"Muhammad Javid, Fakhri J. Hasanov","doi":"10.1111/opec.12291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12291","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Saudi Arabian economy heavily uses foreign labour and hence, ranks among the top countries not only in the Gulf Cooperation Council region, but also globally in terms of remittance outflows. This study develops a theoretical model to investigate the determinants of remittance outflows from Saudi Arabia. The cointegration and equilibrium correction methods, and adjustments for small sample bias, are applied to the data for 1970‐2021 using the theoretical model developed. In the long run, keeping other factors unchanged, Saudi Arabia's gross domestic and non‐Saudi employment have positive and statistically significant impacts on the remittance outflows, while the impacts of the price level and expatriate levy are negative and statically significant. This study's findings may be useful for macroeconomic policymaking, as the remittance outflows have numerous implications for the development of the Saudi economy. Particularly, remittances are a primary channel for leaking money from Saudi Arabia, reducing the economic growth effects of fiscal spending multipliers.","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135553894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Testing the effects of banking development, economic growth and foreign direct investment on renewable energy in South Africa","authors":"A. Samour, Hariem Abdullah, D. Moyo, Mumtaz Ali, Turgut Tursoy","doi":"10.1111/opec.12289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12289","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44992,"journal":{"name":"OPEC Energy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42054936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}