Determinants of Kuwait long‐run and short‐run economic growth

Abstract

This paper examined the relationship between growth and its demand side determinants in Kuwait from 1970 to 2020. A set of autoregressive distributed lag models were applied to estimate the long‐ and short‐run relationships between economic growth and its determinants. The results suggest that exports, gross fixed capital formation (investment), imports and household spending exhibit a long‐run relationship with economic growth. While exports, gross fixed capital formation, share of government spending in GDP and household spending exhibit short‐run relationship with growth. Moreover, the results suggest that long‐ and short‐run economic growth in Kuwait is mainly driven by exports and to a lesser extent household spending. As Kuwaiti exports are dominated by oil exports and oil production is limited to the organisation of petroleum exporting countries quota this limits the policy makers from the most effective tool to stimulate growth. In this context Kuwait needs to enact policies to diversify exports, build a local industrial base, utilise imports to feed into non‐oil export sectors, direct investment spending to develop non‐oil industries and encourage FDI to facilitate innovation and technology transfers and spill overs to progress from a volatile oil‐based economy to a more diversified and sustainable growth path.