Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series最新文献

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Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak On U.S. Stock Market 调查新冠肺炎疫情对美国股市的影响
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2021-02-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3784971
Achu Dobgima Destin
{"title":"Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak On U.S. Stock Market","authors":"Achu Dobgima Destin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3784971","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3784971","url":null,"abstract":"SARS-Cov-2 was first reported in Wuhan, a town in Hubei Province of China with a population of 11 million in December 2019, following an outbreak of non-pneumonia a clear cause. The world health organization (WHO) described it as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. On the economic front, COVID-19 has led more than 200 countries partial or totally lockdown. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on U.S stock market. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on U.S stock market. The author uses extreme bound analysis for market interpretation and sourced data from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and Our World in Data COVID-19, from January 2 to November 16 2020. \u0000 \u0000The results of the study show that, Foreign Exchange and Stringency Index are the only determinants of Stock Prices from Leamer EBA approach. Again, the normal model show that, Interest Rate, TED spread (i.e. the difference between the 3 months Treasury bill and the 3-month LIBOR based in U.S. dollars), Foreign Exchange, and Stringency Index are robust determinants of Stock Prices while the generic model highlights the importance of TED spread, Foreign Exchange, Stringency Index, Interest Rate. In addition, the correlation matrix show that, Bitcoin, Interest Rate, Foreign exchange and Gold Price have a Positive Impact on Stock Price while Stringency Index and the TED Spread has a negative significant relationship with stock prices.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127602820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme Valuations and Future Returns of the S&P 500 标准普尔500指数的极端估值和未来回报
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3727447
S. Rowles, Andrew Mitchell
{"title":"Extreme Valuations and Future Returns of the S&P 500","authors":"S. Rowles, Andrew Mitchell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3727447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3727447","url":null,"abstract":"Higher than average Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios and Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratios have been tolerated by investors recently on the basis of low interest and inflation rates. This white paper analyzes what level of returns can reasonably be expected going forward from today’s elevated valuation multiples.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114889601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Countering China in Latin America and Africa on Trade; a United States Foreign Policy Perspective 在拉美和非洲贸易上对抗中国美国外交政策视角
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728355
Johnny Davis, Romaine Miller, Andrew Salzone, Liam Flanagan
{"title":"Countering China in Latin America and Africa on Trade; a United States Foreign Policy Perspective","authors":"Johnny Davis, Romaine Miller, Andrew Salzone, Liam Flanagan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3728355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3728355","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to provide a pragmatic policy approach to countering China's influence on trade and investment in the west. It also examines how the United States should address China's ever-growing threat to regional rights, freedoms, trade, security and democracy.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123260579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Fiscal Policy News Shocks Affect JGB Yield? Evidence from COVID-19 财政政策冲击会影响日本国债收益率吗?来自COVID-19的证据
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-10-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3707985
Takahiro Hattori, Motoki Katano
{"title":"Do Fiscal Policy News Shocks Affect JGB Yield? Evidence from COVID-19","authors":"Takahiro Hattori, Motoki Katano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3707985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3707985","url":null,"abstract":"This is a pioneering study that investigates how fiscal news affects the yield of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB), by using intraday data. Since the Japanese government is the largest spender in the world, during the COVID-19 pandemic, this period provides the ideal situation or setting to test how fiscal news affects JGB yield. Taking advantage of the minute by minute data about fiscal news during this pandemic, we find that negative fiscal news significantly but temporarily increased JGB yield, although it is not a persistent effect. We also find that investors do care about negative news but not about the positive news. These results suggest that the JGB is considered a risk-free asset among investors, but the result also signals to the Japanese government to work on sound management of debt sustainability from a long-term perspective.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116623033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
How Long is Going to Take a Full Economic Recovery of the World Economy from COVID-19? 新冠肺炎疫情后,世界经济全面复苏需要多长时间?
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-07-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3660714
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
{"title":"How Long is Going to Take a Full Economic Recovery of the World Economy from COVID-19?","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3660714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660714","url":null,"abstract":"This research attempts to evaluate how long the world economy takes for its economic recovery from the Post-COVID-19 period under the application of two new indicators called \"COVID-19 Waves Oscillations (µ) and COVID-19 Openness Behaviour (ϔ).\" The main objective is to evaluate the world economy recovery time framework from COVID-19, respectively. Firstly, the calculation of COVID-19 waves oscillation requests a holistic mathematical approach under the creation of a simple formula. This formula uses the interval of COVID-19 cases daily to elaborate a series of waves from Nano-Waves until Mega-Waves. At the same time, we will demonstrate how the COVID-19 waves oscillation can significantly impact COVID-19 openness behaviour (full business and financial activities reactivation in a month). Finally, we can elaborate on many simulations to evaluate how long it can take the world economy to full economic recovery from COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132688962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Application of The Economic Sustainable Accelerators (TESA) in the COVID-19 Crisis 经济可持续加速器(TESA)在新冠肺炎危机中的应用
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2020-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3609809
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
{"title":"The Application of The Economic Sustainable Accelerators (TESA) in the COVID-19 Crisis","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3609809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3609809","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes an alternative production, distribution, and consumption platform for the case of COVID-19 crisis, this new platform is entitled \"The Economic Sustainable Accelerators (TESA).\" The TESA is based on a strategical plan to reactivate the production, distribution, and consumption of any country in the present COVID-19 crisis. Before we proceed to implement TESA in any country, it is necessary to use twelve different modules of evaluation follow by (i) Module-1: COVID-19 infection cases geographical location; (ii) Module-2: Movement Control Order perimeters size; (iii) Module-3: Labour concentration and mobility systems, (iv) Module-4: Production priority plan; (v) Module-5: Transportation systems integral mobility; (vi) Module-6: Suppliers distribution; (vii) Module-7: Sanitation and Prevention strategic points; (viii) Module-8: Agriculture and Food Security; (ix) Module-9: COVID-19 Private and Public Partnership (public transportation controls, free health support, welfare programs, taxation exoneration), government spending controls; (x) Module-10: Industrial restructuration; (xi) Module-11: Services dynamicity; (xii) Module-12: COVID-19 Consumers opening levels mobility. The main objective of TESA is to offer policy-makers a new proposal to help countries to recovery faster from the COVID-19 crisis. The application of TESA is not limited to the study of a select group of cities. TESA, in effect, is a flexible and straightforward production, distribution, and consumption alternative platform. The third part of this paper shows a multidimensional diagram to explain how TESA can work in any country.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127549258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public Expenditure Management in Indonesia: Islamic Economic Review on State Budget 2017 印度尼西亚公共支出管理:2017年国家预算伊斯兰经济评论
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2018-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3185800
Aan Jaelani
{"title":"Public Expenditure Management in Indonesia: Islamic Economic Review on State Budget 2017","authors":"Aan Jaelani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3185800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3185800","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the management of public expenditures in Indonesia in State Budget 2017. The data collected from fiscal policy documents, especially about government spending plans in 2017, and then be reviewed by policy analysis, the theory of public expenditures, and the theory of public goods, and compared with the theory of public expenditure in Islamic economics. Public expenditure management in Indonesia has implemented a distribution system that divided public expenditure for central government expenditures, transfers to the regions, and the village fund. In terms of fiscal policy, public expenditure priorities to support the achievement of sustainable economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, and the reduction of gaps in the welfare of the whole community. In Islamic economics, public expenditure is used to meet the needs of the community based on the principles of general interest derived from the shari'a. Public expenditure on Indonesia's government as an effective tool to divert economic resources and increase the income of society as a whole, and focused on the embodiment of the people's welfare.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131413596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Critical Diagnosis of the Success/Failure of Economic Policies in Zimbabwe during the Banana (1980 – 1987) and the Mugabe (1988 – 2017) Administrations: Learning the Hard Way 对香蕉(1980 - 1987)和穆加贝(1988 - 2017)政府期间津巴布韦经济政策成功/失败的关键诊断:学习艰难的道路
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2018-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3133565
Thabani Nyoni
{"title":"A Critical Diagnosis of the Success/Failure of Economic Policies in Zimbabwe during the Banana (1980 – 1987) and the Mugabe (1988 – 2017) Administrations: Learning the Hard Way","authors":"Thabani Nyoni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3133565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3133565","url":null,"abstract":"The status of paralysis in which Zimbabwe has slipped throughout the past 37 years might be traced back to the Banana Administration. Since 1980, a number of economic policies have been formulated and subsequently implemented in Zimbabwe and yet the economy is still under intensive care. This puzzle has raised the eye – brows of many economists in Zimbabwe and abroad. Who is to blame? This is the question that is probably lingering in the hearts of many Zimbabweans. It is not easy to come to a point where we may be 100% sure about the one who significantly contributed to the failure/success of any economic policy in Zimbabwe or else where. Thank God, this analysis does not seek to address issues to do with the “blame – game”, but rather attempts to demystify Zimbabwean economic policy dynamics by critically examining the success/failure of economic policies implemented in Zimbabwe since 1980. The researcher also attempts to highlight the important role played by the political economy in the success/failure of any economic policy at disposal. The study unpacks some important lessons in light of the new political dispensation. Amongst the main policy prescriptions, the study recommends the new government to maintain a credible and predictable economic policy landscape.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"249 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122057961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The Role of Oil Price Fluctuations on the USD/EUR Exchange Rate: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration 油价波动对美元/欧元汇率的影响:一种协整的ARDL边界检验方法
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-10-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3050999
Nagmi Aimer
{"title":"The Role of Oil Price Fluctuations on the USD/EUR Exchange Rate: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration","authors":"Nagmi Aimer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3050999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3050999","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the impact of global oil price fluctuations on global exchange rates of the dollar against the euro (USD/EUR), using the bounds testing approach method to test co-integration, error correction model, in the framework of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) by Pesaran et al. (2001) during the period from 1990 to 2016. Moreover, the results of the analysis showed a positive balance relationship between the two variables in the long and short term. On the other hand, our estimates suggest that, 1% depreciation in the dollar leads to 0.58 rises in the oil price in the long run. The error correction results show that coefficient of (ECM) = -0.43, imply that deviation from the long-term exchange rate is corrected by 43% by the following year. Based on the findings of the study, the researcher recommended the need for coordination between movements of oil prices and financial policy for what needs economic political mechanism of delicate balance.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125286449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Explaining Gender Differences in Confidence and Overconfidence in Math 解释数学自信和过度自信的性别差异
Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series Pub Date : 2017-01-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2902717
Seo-Young Cho
{"title":"Explaining Gender Differences in Confidence and Overconfidence in Math","authors":"Seo-Young Cho","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2902717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2902717","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates empirically how and why men and women are different in their confidence levels. In the analysis, confidence is disentangled into two dimensions: confidence in correct math knowledge and overconfidence in false knowledge. Using the data of the PISA test in math, the findings highlight that math abilities have different effects on boys and girls. Overall, math abilities increase confidence and decrease overconfidence. However, the positive effect on confidence is smaller for girls, and the negative effect on overconfidence is larger for them. This gender-asymmetric effect implies that well-performing girls are more constrained from gaining confident attitudes through their abilities, compared to well-performing boys. The empirical evidence further indicates that the gender-asymmetric effect of abilities can be explained by gender socialization that undermines women’s achievements and limit their opportunities.","PeriodicalId":448796,"journal":{"name":"Universidad Icesi - School of Management & Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132926602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
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