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Reinstating fiscal policy for normal times: Public investment and Public Jobs Programmes 恢复正常时期的财政政策:公共投资和公共就业计划
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2021-06-07 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643/17483
Simone Gasperin, R. Skidelsky
{"title":"Reinstating fiscal policy for normal times: Public investment and Public Jobs Programmes","authors":"Simone Gasperin, R. Skidelsky","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643/17483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/17483","url":null,"abstract":"This paper upholds the classical Keynesian position that a laissez-faire market economy lacks a spontaneous tendency to full employment. Focusing on the UK case, it argues that monetary policy could not prevent the economic collapse of 2008-9 or achieve full recovery from the Great Recession that followed. The paper then outlines the case for fiscal policy to regain a permanent status of primacy in modern macroeconomic management, beyond the pandemic emergency. It distinguishes between public investment and automatic stabilisers, reducing discretionary actions to a minimum. It presents the case for re-empowering the State’spublic investment function and for reforming the system of automatic counter-cyclical stabilisers by means of public jobs programmes. \u0000  \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000JEL codes:E32, E52, E61, E62, E63, H54, J68 \u0000Keywords:monetary policy, fiscal policy, public investment, job programmes","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44614161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
On two recent attempts to introduce animal spirits in macroeconomics: Heresy or enlightened church reform? 关于最近在宏观经济学中引入动物精神的两种尝试：异端还是开明的教会改革？
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2021-06-07 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643/17485
T. Togati
{"title":"On two recent attempts to introduce animal spirits in macroeconomics: Heresy or enlightened church reform?","authors":"T. Togati","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643/17485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643/17485","url":null,"abstract":"As noted by Alan Greenspan in 2008, one key flaw in standard models is that they treat animal spirits as a simple ‘add factor’ rather than as a structural one. This paper evaluates the extent to which two recent approaches placing the emphasis on animal spirits – namely Farmer’s ‘Neo-Paleo-Keynesian’ (NPK) project and Akerlof and Shiller’s behavioural approach – manage to overcome this flaw. By following the powerful religious metaphor introduced by Farmer, according to which general equilibrium theory underlying standard models should be regarded as a ‘church’, this paper stresses two points. First, animal spirits turn out to be devilish features that are inconsistent with the church’s commandments. Second, by trying to reconcile them with the church, these two approaches are unable to truly reform it as required by Greenspan; rather, they appear to be heretical stances that are forced to violate some fundamental dogmas of the church. \u0000  \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000JEL codes: \u0000E12, E13, E32 \u0000Keywords:Animal spirits, general equilibrium, research programmes, Keynesian economics, macroeconomic models","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42982808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields 加拿大政府证券收益率的凯恩斯主义分析
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_3
A. Das, Tanweer Akram
{"title":"A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields","authors":"A. Das, Tanweer Akram","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_3","url":null,"abstract":"Keynes argued that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate on government bonds. This paper empirically models the relationship between the short-term interest rate and long-term government securities yields in Canada, after controlling for other important financial variables. The statistical analysis uses high-frequency daily data from 1990 to 2018 to examine the behavioral dynamics of the long-term interest rate. The empirical results show that the actions of the Bank of Canada are key drivers of Canadian government securities yields in the long run, which supports the Keynesian perspective. There is a positive association between long-term bond yields and the Canadian federal government’s net debt to GDP ratio, but the effect is fairly modest. An important implication of these findings is that the Bank of Canada’s actions can have a decisive effect on the long-term interest rate over the long horizon. JEL codes : E43, E50, E60, G10, G12","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44042498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Infrastructure and manufacturing in Sub-Saharan Africa: An empirical analysis using dynamic panel data models 撒哈拉以南非洲的基础设施和制造业:使用动态面板数据模型的实证分析
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_4
Bovick Wandja Yemba, R. Ribeiro, Victor Medeiros
{"title":"Infrastructure and manufacturing in Sub-Saharan Africa: An empirical analysis using dynamic panel data models","authors":"Bovick Wandja Yemba, R. Ribeiro, Victor Medeiros","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_4","url":null,"abstract":"The provisioning of adequate infrastructure may be seen as a key contributing factor in the industrialization process as well as economic development across the globe. While there is a vast empirical literature assessing the impact of infrastructure on economic growth, productivity and income inequality, estimates of the effect on infrastructure on manufacturing sector, in particular, are rather scant. Using dynamic panel data models, we empirically investigate the impact of investments in power, transportation and telecommunication sectors on the manufacturing industry for a sample of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries over the 1980-2012 period. Our findings suggest a positive effect of infrastructure provisioning on industrialization in the region. JEL codes : H54, O14, O55","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46556183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe 国际货币基金组织内部的“认错”:一个关于欧洲增长预测错误和凯恩斯乘数的小组分析
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2
E. Brancaccio, Fabiana De Cristofaro
{"title":"Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe","authors":"E. Brancaccio, Fabiana De Cristofaro","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2","url":null,"abstract":"The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fatas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term. JEL codes :E23, E27, E62","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41322146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Monetary Policy Responses to Exogenous Perturbations: The Case of a Small Open Economy (2007-2018) 外生扰动下的货币政策响应:以小型开放经济体为例(2007-2018)
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_5
Christopher E. S. Warburton, Emerson Abraham Jackson
{"title":"Monetary Policy Responses to Exogenous Perturbations: The Case of a Small Open Economy (2007-2018)","authors":"Christopher E. S. Warburton, Emerson Abraham Jackson","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_5","url":null,"abstract":"While autonomous central banks in large open economies are usually predisposed to use monetary rules to target inflation, output, and long-term interest rates, central banks in small open economies face peculiar challenges in their attempts to attain and maintain liquidity, stable prices and full employment. This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy in the case of Sierra Leone, assuming that information for rule-based monetary policy is insufficient and imprecise. We use the Bayesian model to evaluate primitive (priors), posterior enhancements and responses of key variables to exogenous perturbations based on information from 2007 to 2018. We find that the effects of disturbances that are associated with crude oil prices have a more persistent effect on national output than the dominant monetary instrument (T-Bills). The response of monetary policy to exogenous perturbations is generally weak and less persistent. Granger-causality tests reveal that internal conditions make it less likely for the central bank to robustly react to external shocks. JEL codes : E42, E 47, E50, E52","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43649534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Julio López Gallardo (1941-2020) 胡里奥·洛佩斯·加拉多（1941-2020）
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_1
Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, Carlo Panico, M. P. Anyul
{"title":"Julio López Gallardo (1941-2020)","authors":"Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, Carlo Panico, M. P. Anyul","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_1","url":null,"abstract":"This obituary recalls the personal and intellectual trajectory of Julio Lopez Gallardo, who recently passed away. A friend of the authors and this Review, Julio contributed widely to the literature on the development of Latin American countries, to Kaleckian models, and to structuralism. His main contributions concern  the effective demand in the semi-industrialized economies, the different roles of fiscal and trade deficits in economic growth, and the structural role of the distribution of income on the development process. JEL codes:  B32, E11, O11","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48543585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
France: The political economy of discontent. The “Gilets Jaunes” movement 法国：不满的政治经济学。“Gilets Jaunes”运动
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_2
J. Gallardo
{"title":"France: The political economy of discontent. The “Gilets Jaunes” movement","authors":"J. Gallardo","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_2","url":null,"abstract":"The author comments on the months of protest by the “yellow jackets” movement, to provide a diagnosis of the reasons of economic malaise in France. It is claimed that France only really started loosing ground relative to Germany since adhering to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). A reform of the EMU would be needed for the country to recover lost ground, but the current political conditions at the European level do make such a reform likely. The author concludes by predicting a continuation of the status quo, matched by growth of the radical right in France and other EMU countries. JEL codes : O11, O23, N14","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46786875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stock market volatility, speculation and unemployment: A Granger-causality analysis 股市波动、投机与失业：Granger因果分析
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_3
Bernardina Algieri, E. Brancaccio, Damiano Buonaguidi
{"title":"Stock market volatility, speculation and unemployment: A Granger-causality analysis","authors":"Bernardina Algieri, E. Brancaccio, Damiano Buonaguidi","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_3","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the possible Granger-causal relations between stock price volatility and dividend dynamics on the one hand, and speculation and unemployment on the other. The analysis is carried out for the US over the period 1982-2018. Stock price volatility is calculated in terms of “conditional” volatility and in terms of the so-called “Shiller ratio”, while speculative trading is expressed as “scalping” activities. We find that there is a causal positive relation from speculation to stock price volatility. Furthermore, we show that there is an inverse causal relationship ranging from stock prices to unemployment, while there is no causal relationship between dividends and unemployment. These results corroborate the empirical analyses by Shiller and other authors which deny the traditional Present Value Model (PVM), provide new elements on the possible determinants of stock price volatility, and offer new interpretations of the potential links between the stock market and macroeconomic dynamics . JEL codes : C10; E39; G15","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47889403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Employment, innovation, and interfirm networks 就业、创新和企业间网络
IF 0.7
PSL Quarterly Review Pub Date : 2020-06-27 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_4
Andrea Fabrizi, Giuseppe Garofalo, G. Guarini, V. Meliciani
{"title":"Employment, innovation, and interfirm networks","authors":"Andrea Fabrizi, Giuseppe Garofalo, G. Guarini, V. Meliciani","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.293_4","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the employment impact of business network agreements, an innovative policy instrument introduced in Italy in 2010 to stimulate interfirm cooperation, with the aim of increasing innovative capacity and market competitiveness. We estimate the impact of these networks on employment for a panel of Italian firms using a system generalized method of moments and considering the literature on the employment impact of innovation. We find that networks, which can be interpreted as a form of open innovation, have a positive impact on employment; moreover, this impact appears positively influenced by sectoral and regional heterogeneity of firms and the region’s innovation capacities. Overall, the results suggest that participation in networks where firms share industrial, commercial, and technical knowledge improves firm performance, creating synergies that help firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to manage the growing complexity of knowledge and the fierce competition arising from increasingly globalized markets. JEL codes : D85, J2, O36","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45988912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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