{"title":"国际货币基金组织内部的“认错”:一个关于欧洲增长预测错误和凯恩斯乘数的小组分析","authors":"E. Brancaccio, Fabiana De Cristofaro","doi":"10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fatas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term. JEL codes :E23, E27, E62","PeriodicalId":44488,"journal":{"name":"PSL Quarterly Review","volume":"73 1","pages":"225-239"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2020-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe\",\"authors\":\"E. Brancaccio, Fabiana De Cristofaro\",\"doi\":\"10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fatas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term. JEL codes :E23, E27, E62\",\"PeriodicalId\":44488,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"PSL Quarterly Review\",\"volume\":\"73 1\",\"pages\":\"225-239\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-10-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"PSL Quarterly Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PSL Quarterly Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
摘要
Blanchard和Leigh (2013;本文将IMF, 2012)和Fatas and Summers(2018)扩展为一个小组框架,以评估欧元区危机期间低估凯恩斯乘数的所谓IMF“认错”的实证基础。欧洲央行(ecb)、欧盟委员会(European Commission)和其他作者对“低估”理论提出的反对意见得到了检验和驳斥。研究结果支持了“认错论”,并强调了乘数的低估可能涉及短期和长期。JEL代码:E23, E27, E62
Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe
The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fatas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term. JEL codes :E23, E27, E62