ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Agricultural Productivity and Poverty Reduction in Nepal","authors":"Satis Devkota, Mukti P. Upadhyay","doi":"10.1111/rode.12062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12062","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides for the first time a clear quantitative link between agricultural productivity and poverty among rural households in Nepal. Using data from a nationwide Nepal Living Standard Survey 2004, we first estimate household‐specific productivity per worker under both Cobb–Douglas and translog production functions. Second, the paper identifies the determinants of productivity. Third, we explore a theoretical link between productivity and poverty using Sen's poverty index and find empirically that productivity growth substantially helps poverty reduction. Finally, the integrated effects of changes in productivity determinants are found to be stronger than the outcomes of sectoral policies taken in isolation.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"2 8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122834788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consumption and Cash-Flow Taxes in an International Setting","authors":"Alan J. Auerbach, Michael P. Devereux","doi":"10.3386/W19579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W19579","url":null,"abstract":"We model the effects of consumption-type taxes which differ according to the base and location of the tax. Our model incorporates a monopolist producing and selling in two countries with three sources of rent, each in a different location: a fixed factor (located with production), mobile managerial skill, and a monopoly mark-up (located with consumption). In the general case, we show that for national governments, there are tradeoffs in choosing between alternative taxes. In particular, a cash-flow tax on a source basis creates welfare-impairing distortions to production and consumption, but is incident on the owners of domestic production who may be non-resident. By contrast, a destination-based cash-flow tax does not distort behavior, but is incident only on domestic residents. In the alternative case of perfect competition, with the returns to the fixed factor accruing to domestic residents, the only distortion from the source-based tax is through the allocation of the mobile managerial skill. In this case, the sourcebased tax is also incident only on domestic residents, and is dominated by an equivalent tax on a destination basis, or by a sales tax.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127188028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Patterns of Welfare Dependence Before and after a Reform: Evidence from First Generation Immigrants and Natives in Germany","authors":"R. Riphahn, Christoph Wunder","doi":"10.1111/j.1475-4991.2012.00518.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2012.00518.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the patterns of welfare dependence among first generation immigrants and natives in Germany before and after a substantial recent reform of the welfare system. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study, the analysis presents life cycle trajectories of transfer receipt for immigrants and natives and studies the correlation between contextual factors and transfer receipt. We find no statistically significant differences in the probability of transfer receipt between immigrants and natives once socioeconomic characteristics are taken into account. Being a single parent, labor market status, and human capital are most closely correlated with the incidence of transfer receipt for both natives and immigrants. Interestingly, recent welfare reforms did not reverse prior patterns of welfare dependence.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123472694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Dynamics of Expansion to Emerging Markets: Evidence from Canadian Exporters","authors":"Sui Sui, Zhihao Yu","doi":"10.1111/rode.12046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12046","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the expansion patterns of Canadian firms towards emerging markets. A unique large‐scale longitudinal (1997–2004) dataset which includes 2600 Canadian exporters is constructed by linking multiple administrative databases at Statistics Canada. Our results suggest traditional sequential exporting patterns do not apply to all Canadian exporters. Since 2001, there has been an increasing trend among a new generation of exporters to target emerging markets as their initial export destination; and both macroeconomic and firm‐specific factors seem to account for this development. Compared with foreign‐controlled firms, Canadian‐controlled firms are less likely to export to the emerging markets. In order to successfully expand into emerging markets, Canadian firms have had to improve their productivity and reduce their labor costs.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134298199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mining Big Data Using Parsimonious Factor and Shrinkage Methods","authors":"Hyun Hak Kim, Norman R. Swanson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2294110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2294110","url":null,"abstract":"A number of recent studies in the economics literature have focused on the usefulness of factor models in the context of prediction using \"big data\". In this paper, our over-arching question is whether such \"big data\" are useful for modelling low frequency macroeconomic variables such as unemployment, inflation and GDP. In particular, we analyze the predictive benefits associated with the use dimension reducing independent component analysis (ICA) and sparse principal component analysis (SPCA), coupled with a variety of other factor estimation as well as data shrinkage methods, including bagging, boosting, and the elastic net, among others. We do so by carrying out a forecasting \"horse-race\", involving the estimation of 28 different baseline model types, each constructed using a variety of specification approaches, estimation approaches, and benchmark econometric models; and all used in the prediction of 11 key macroeconomic variables relevant for monetary policy assessment. In many instances, we find that various of our benchmark specifications, including autoregressive (AR) models, AR models with exogenous variables, and (Bayesian) model averaging, do not dominate more complicated nonlinear methods, and that using a combination of factor and other shrinkage methods often yields superior predictions. For example, simple averaging methods are mean square forecast error (MSFE) \"best\" in only 9 of 33 key cases considered. This is rather surprising new evidence that model averaging methods do not necessarily yield MSFE-best predictions. However, in order to \"beat\" model averaging methods, including arithmetic mean and Bayesian averaging approaches, we have introduced into our \"horse-race\" numerous complex new models involve combining complicated factor estimation methods with interesting new forms of shrinkage. For example, SPCA yields MSFE-best prediction models in many cases, particularly when coupled with shrinkage. This result provides strong new evidence of the usefulness of sophisticated factor based forecasting, and therefore, of the use of \"big data\" in macroeconometric forecasting.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115530104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multidimensional Poverty and Material Deprivation with Discrete Data","authors":"S. Chakravarty, C. D’Ambrosio","doi":"10.1111/j.1475-4991.2012.00519.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2012.00519.x","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a characterization of a popular index of multidimensional poverty which, as a special case, generates a measure of material deprivation. This index is the weighted sum of the functioning failures. The important feature of the variables that may be relevant for poverty assessments is that they are discrete in nature. Thus, poverty measures based on continuous variables are not suitable in this setting and the assumption of a discrete domain is mandatory. We apply the measure to European Union member states where the concept of material deprivation was initiated and illustrate how its recommendations differ from those obtained from poverty measures based exclusively on income considerations.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128785165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of the Money Demand Function in Russia","authors":"K. Sosunov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2191941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2191941","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper following Ball (2012) I estimate the demand function for narrow money aggregate M1 in Russia for 2003-2012. I show that after inclusion of cash foreign exchange and relevant interest rate the money demand is stable in the long- and the short-run and estimated long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics of the money demand yields sensible values for the simple functional form. I also show that most of the short-run volatility of the money holding can be attributed to the slow speed of adjustment of the demand not to the unexplained shocks.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134010620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Term Structure Dynamics with Macro Factors Using High Frequency Data","authors":"Hwagyun Kim, Hail Park","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2234162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2234162","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically studies the role of macro-factors in explaining and predicting daily bond yields. In general, macro-finance models use low-frequency data to match with macroeconomic variables available only at low frequencies. To deal with this, we construct and estimate a tractable no-arbitrage affine model with both conventional latent factors and macro-factors by imposing cross-equation restrictions on the daily yields of bonds with different maturities, credit risks, and inflation indexation. The estimation results using both the US and the UK data show that the estimated macro-factors significantly predict actual inflation and the output gap. In addition, our daily macro-term structure model forecasts better than no-arbitrage models with only latent factors as well as other statistical models.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133874552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shadow Economy and Entrepreneurial Entry","authors":"T. Mickiewicz","doi":"10.1111/rode.12004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12004","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze theoretically and empirically the impact of the shadow economy on entrepreneurial entry, utilising 1998-2005 individual-level Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data merged with macro level variables. A simple correlation coefficient suggests a positive linear link between the size of the shadow economy and entrepreneurial entry. However, this masks more complex relationships. With appropriate controls and instrumenting for potential endogeneity where required, the impact of the shadow economy on entry is found to be negative, based on a linear specification. Moreover, there is also evidence of nonlinearity: entrepreneurial entry is least likely when the shadow economy is of medium size. We attribute the negative effects of shadow economy on entry to perceived strong competition faced by new entrants when the shadow economy is widespread. At the individual level, an extensive shadow economy has a more negative impact on respondents who are risk averse. In addition, in the economies where property rights are strong, the negative impact of the shadow economy is weaker.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129276235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time-Varying Combinations of Predictive Densities Using Nonlinear Filtering","authors":"Monica Billio, R. Casarin, F. Ravazzolo, H. V. Dijk, Vu, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Bedrijfskunde","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2172254","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2172254","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a Bayesian combination approach for multivariate predictive densities which relies upon a distributional state space representation of the combination weights. Several specifications of multivariate time-varying weights are introduced with a particular focus on weight dynamics driven by the past performance of the predictive densities and the use of learning mechanisms. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete, meaning that all models can be individually misspecified. A Sequential Monte Carlo method is proposed to approximate the filtering and predictive densities. The combination approach is assessed using statistical and utility-based performance measures for evaluating density forecasts of simulated data, US macroeconomic time series and surveys of stock market prices. Simulation results indicate that, for a set of linear autoregressive models, the combination strategy is successful in selecting, with probability close to one, the true model when the model set is complete and it is able to detect parameter instability when the model set includes the true model that has generated subsamples of data. Also, substantial uncertainty appears in the weights when predictors are similar; residual uncertainty reduces when the model set is complete; and learning reduces this uncertainty. For the macro series we find that incompleteness of the models is relatively large in the 1970’s, the beginning of the 1980’s and during the recent financial crisis, and lower during the Great Moderation; the predicted probabilities of recession accurately compare with the NBER business cycle dating; model weights have substantial uncertainty attached. With respect to returns of the S&P 500 series, we find that an investment strategy using a combination of predictions from professional forecasters and from a white noise model puts more weight on the white noise model in the beginning of the 1990’s and switches to giving more weight to the professional forecasts over time. Information on the complete predictive distribution and not just on some moments turns out to be very important, above all during turbulent times such as the recent financial crisis. More generally, the proposed distributional state space representation offers great flexibility in combining densities.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"50 9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124531787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}