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Foreign Capital, Spillovers and Export Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Indian it Firms 新兴经济体的外资、溢出效应与出口绩效:来自印度it企业的证据
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12111
David M. Kemme, Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, D. Mukherjee
{"title":"Foreign Capital, Spillovers and Export Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Indian it Firms","authors":"David M. Kemme, Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, D. Mukherjee","doi":"10.1111/rode.12111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12111","url":null,"abstract":"The role of foreign capital inflow, foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI), on export behavior of both recipients and non-recipient competing firms in the same sector often guides economic development policy. By using panel data of Indian IT firms over 2000–2006, we show that FDI reduces the sunk costs of entering foreign markets and therefore positively effects both the decision to export and the export propensity of recipient firms. Foreign portfolio investment has no effect on the decision to export, but it does marginally increase the volume of exports. Further, these positive FDI and FPI recipient effects do not spill-over to non-recipients.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132233688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Multinational Enterprises, Absorptive Capacity and Export Spillovers: Evidence from Polish Firm‐Level Data 跨国企业、吸收能力和出口溢出:来自波兰企业层面数据的证据
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12113
A. Cieślik, J. Hagemejer
{"title":"Multinational Enterprises, Absorptive Capacity and Export Spillovers: Evidence from Polish Firm‐Level Data","authors":"A. Cieślik, J. Hagemejer","doi":"10.1111/rode.12113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12113","url":null,"abstract":"An important benefit attributed to the activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in developing and transition countries is its effect on international market access. Through a variety of channels the presence of MNEs is expected to reduce the costs faced by indigenous firms in breaking into international markets and in turn boost their export prospects. In this paper we use an extensive Polish firm-level dataset for the period 2000–2008 to verify whether MNEs have positively contributed to the export performance of indigenous firms. We track not only sectoral and geographical spillovers stemming from the activity of MNEs but also control for firm-specific characteristics that affect indigenous firms' decisions to export including their absorptive capacity. Our empirical results support the existence of positive spillovers (related to MNE export activity) at the sectoral level but not at the regional level. Finally, we find that individual absorptive capacity determines the size of export spillovers.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"249 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115633981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
Self‐Assessed Social Position and Poverty 自我评估的社会地位和贫困
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12036
Hikaru Hasegawa, K. Ueda
{"title":"Self‐Assessed Social Position and Poverty","authors":"Hikaru Hasegawa, K. Ueda","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12036","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we use microlevel data extracted from the 2006 Japanese General Social Surveys to analyze the relationships between self-assessed social position and socioeconomic factors such as income and poverty. We provide the posterior results of the estimation of the Bayesian multivariate ordered probit model and propose an inequality measure for self-assessed social position on the basis of the posterior results. We call the inequality measure “regret” and show that the distributions of regret differ for people above and below the poverty line.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121999329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Financial Development, Long-Term Finance and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Secondary Markets 金融发展、长期金融与宏观经济:二级市场的作用
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-08-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2488385
Burak R. Uras
{"title":"Financial Development, Long-Term Finance and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Secondary Markets","authors":"Burak R. Uras","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2488385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2488385","url":null,"abstract":"The paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of financial markets and macroeconomy. In the model, long-term debt is extended to firms in a primary market and then traded in a secondary market among financiers. Two financial frictions that are ex-ante and ex-post with respect to the secondary market trading date raise the cost of debt finance. In stationary equilibrium, while ex-ante frictions are always counterproductive, financing costs that are ex-post could promote macroeconomic growth. I show that a model consistent with the U.S. financial development experience of the last 30 years is likely to exhibit declining ex-post frictions","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117138669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating Volatility Shocks 估计波动率冲击
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2518472
Carlos Montes-Galdón
{"title":"Estimating Volatility Shocks","authors":"Carlos Montes-Galdón","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2518472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2518472","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a framework and a model-consistent estimation approach for the analysis of the dynamic consequences of changes in volatility. The proposed model is a Vector Autoregression in which time-varying volatility has a first-order impact on the observable variables. The volatility process is estimated within the model, and therefore, the proposed estimation approach does not rely on proxy measures of aggregate uncertainty as it has been generally done in the literature extant. Estimates of the proposed model using data from the United States show important quantitative and qualitative departures from estimates incorporating non-model-consistent measures of volatility. In particular, an increase in overall volatility similar to the one experienced during the Great Recession is predicted to have a strong negative and persistent impact on key macroeconomic indicators, including output, investment and the unemployment rate, and to worsen financial conditions. Moreover, a decomposition of the estimated volatility time series shows that fiscal volatility shocks are associated with important deflationary pressures, have a strong crowding out effect on investment and increase the cost of borrowing. Finally, the estimated model predicts that volatility has an asymmetric effect on the economy so that only rare shocks matter.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122092317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013 1859 - 2013年美国原油与股票市场价格的制度转换模型
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-06-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2502152
M. Balcılar, Rangan Gupta, S. Miller
{"title":"Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013","authors":"M. Balcılar, Rangan Gupta, S. Miller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2502152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2502152","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between US crude oil and stock market prices, using a Markov-Switching vector error-correction model and a monthly data set from 1859 to 2013. The sample covers the entire modern era of the petroleum industry, which typically begins with the first drilled oil well in Titusville, Pennsylvania in 1858. We estimate a two regime model that divides the sample into high- and low-volatility regimes based on the variance-covariance matrix of the oil and stock prices. We find that the high-volatility regime more frequently exists prior to the Great Depression and after the 1973 oil price shock caused by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The low-volatility regime occurs more frequently when the oil markets fell largely under the control of the major international oil companies from the end of the Great Depression to the first oil price shock in 1973. Using the National Bureau of Economic research business cycle dates, we also find that the high-volatility regime more likely occurs when the economy experiences a recession.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121494906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 46
Measuring Economic Insecurity in Rich and Poor Nations 衡量富国和穷国的经济不安全感
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12114
L. Osberg, A. Sharpe
{"title":"Measuring Economic Insecurity in Rich and Poor Nations","authors":"L. Osberg, A. Sharpe","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12114","url":null,"abstract":"Worrying about possible future economic dangers subtracts from the present well-being of individuals, which is why affluent societies have complex systems of private insurance and public social protection to provide a degree of economic security. However, such protections are largely unavailable to the citizens of poor nations (i.e., most of humanity). How can one measure economic security in these very different contexts? This paper examines trends in the IEWB Economic Security Index for four affluent OECD countries and compares a cross-section of 70 rich and poor countries in 2007/08. To reflect better the reality of developing countries, it revises the IEWB index to: (1) include the volatility of food production in the risk of loss of livelihood; (2) adjust the risks of health care costs to consider the proportion of household spending on food (which is non-discretionary, and large in poor countries); and (3) add adult male mortality to the risk of divorce in calculation of the risk of single parent poverty.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132207264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 56
Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate — The Case of Brazil 时变中性利率——以巴西为例
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-05-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484385210.001.A001
Roberto A. Perrelli, S. Roache
{"title":"Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate — The Case of Brazil","authors":"Roberto A. Perrelli, S. Roache","doi":"10.5089/9781484385210.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484385210.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil’s time-varying neutral rate based on a range of structural and econometric models. We assess the implications of incorrectly estimating a time-varying neutral rate using a small structural model with a simple monetary policy instrument rule. We find that policy prescriptions are very different when facing uncertainty of neutral rate and of output gap. Our result contrasts sharply with Orphanides (2002), suggesting that the best response to neutral rate uncertainty is to ensure policy remains highly sensitive to inflation and output variations.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133946654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 26
Перспективы использования современной версии СНС при формировании информационной базы макроэкономического анализа и прогнозирования (Prospects for the Use of Modern Versions of the SNA in the Formation of an Information Base for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting)
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-03-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2407925
A. Abroskin
{"title":"Перспективы использования современной версии СНС при формировании информационной базы макроэкономического анализа и прогнозирования (Prospects for the Use of Modern Versions of the SNA in the Formation of an Information Base for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting)","authors":"A. Abroskin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2407925","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2407925","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: Статья посвящена вопросам использования современной версии Системы национальных счетов (СНС) при формировании информационной базы макроэкономического анализа и прогнозирования. В статье рассматриваются основные новации, представленные в методологии СНС 2008 и обеспечивающие дальнейшее развитие информационной базы для разработки аналитических оценок и кратко-, средне- и долгосрочных макроэкономических прогнозов.В статье подробно исследуются особенности использования современной версии СНС при анализе элементов нефинансовых активов, сферы финансовых услуг и внешнеэкономических связей в условиях глобализации экономики. Также рассмотрены перспективы расширения системы аналитических показателей и развития новых направлений макроэкономического анализа и прогнозирования на основе методологии СНС 2008.English Abstract: The article concerns the topical questions of the use of the System of National Accounts (SNA) modern version in the development the information base for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. The paper examines the main innovations presented in the methodology of the SNA 2008 and supporting further extension of the data base for the development of analytical estimates and short-, medium- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts.The paper investigates in detail the distinctive features of use of the SNA modern version in analyzing the elements of non-financial assets, financial services and international relations in globalized economy. As well are discussed the prospects for the expansion of the analytical indicators system and the development of new aspects of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting based on the methodology of the 2008 SNA.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130252892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bubbles and Leverage: A Simple and Unified Approach 泡沫和杠杆:一个简单而统一的方法
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2013-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2366942
Robert B. Barsky, Theodore Bogusz
{"title":"Bubbles and Leverage: A Simple and Unified Approach","authors":"Robert B. Barsky, Theodore Bogusz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2366942","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2366942","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we lay out a simple framework that captures much of what the theoretical literature has to say about the role of credit in systemically important asset booms and busts. In addition, we suggest ways in which to incorporate physical investment in the bubble asset as well as monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129311830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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