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Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and More Inequality? 将税收从劳动转移到消费:更多的就业和更多的不平等?
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12232
N. Pestel, E. Sommer
{"title":"Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and More Inequality?","authors":"N. Pestel, E. Sommer","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12232","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value‐added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue‐neutral reductions in income‐related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131459650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
A Default System with Overspilling Contagion 具有溢出传染的违约体系
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-07-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3041348
Delia Coculescu
{"title":"A Default System with Overspilling Contagion","authors":"Delia Coculescu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3041348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3041348","url":null,"abstract":"In classical contagion models, default systems are Markovian conditionally on the observation of their stochastic environment, with interacting intensities. This necessitates that the environment evolves autonomously and is not influenced by the history of the default events. We extend the classical literature and allow a default system to have a contagious impact on its environment. In our framework, contagion can either be contained within the default system (i.e., direct contagion from a counterparty to another) or spill from the default system over its environment (indirect contagion). This type of model is of interest whenever one wants to capture within a model possible impacts of the defaults of a class of debtors on the more global economy and vice versa.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130622651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Catch‐Up Cycle: A General Equilibrium Framework 追赶周期:一般均衡框架
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12330
Peilin Liu, Shen Jia, Xun Zhang
{"title":"Catch‐Up Cycle: A General Equilibrium Framework","authors":"Peilin Liu, Shen Jia, Xun Zhang","doi":"10.1111/rode.12330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12330","url":null,"abstract":"Successful economic latecomers have certain stylized facts: an inverse U-shaped growth rate, high growth rates of per capita output with high capital returns, and rapid structural changes. In this paper, we document for the first time a catch-up cycle that successful latecomers likely experience. The economic growth literature is inadequate to explain economies’ catching-up. We argue that technology imitation, together with diminishing marginal return of capital are the two driving forces of the catch-up cycle. This paper also sheds light on the different policy choices in various stages of the catch-up cycle.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125812663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey 股票流动一致的宏观经济模型:综述
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-05-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2973485
M. Nikiforos, G. Zezza
{"title":"Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey","authors":"M. Nikiforos, G. Zezza","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2973485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2973485","url":null,"abstract":"The stock-flow consistent (SFC) modeling approach, grounded in the pioneering work of Wynne Godley and James Tobin in the 1970s, has been adopted by a growing number of researchers in macroeconomics, especially after the publication of Godley and Lavoie (2007), which provided a general framework for the analysis of whole economic systems, and the recognition that macroeconomic models integrating real markets with flow-of-funds analysis had been particularly successful in predicting the Great Recession of 2007–9. We introduce the general features of the SFC approach for a closed economy, showing how the core model has been extended to address issues such as financialization and income distribution. We next discuss the implications of the approach for models of open economies and compare the methodologies adopted in developing SFC empirical models for whole countries. We review the contributions where the SFC approach is being adopted as the macroeconomic closure of microeconomic agent-based models, and how the SFC approach is at the core of new research in ecological macroeconomics. Finally, we discuss the appropriateness of the name “stock-flow consistent” for the class of models we survey.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114498952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Land Use in the 21st Century: Contributing to the Global Public Good 21世纪的土地利用:为全球公共利益做出贡献
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12295
T. Hertel
{"title":"Land Use in the 21st Century: Contributing to the Global Public Good","authors":"T. Hertel","doi":"10.1111/rode.12295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12295","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on the evolution of global public goods related to the world's land resources over the course of the 21st century, their potential impacts on the world's poorest households, as well as prospects for policy interventions aimed at enhancing these outcomes. It begins with global scale projections to 2100 of land use and associated goods and services, including food, fuel, timber, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. This is followed by in-depth discussion of each of these services and the challenges of providing these public goods in sufficient quantities to advance societal welfare—especially that of the world's poorest households. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies aimed at promoting the provision of land-based public goods and how they could be altered to be more pro-poor. Within this context, the paper argues that access to geospatial analysis tools and information on climate, land use and tenure, poverty and environmental indicators will become increasingly valuable to both public and private decision makers.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116997984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Closing the Small Open Economy Model: A Demographic Approach 关闭小型开放经济模式:一种人口统计学方法
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12255
David Oxborrow, S. Turnovsky
{"title":"Closing the Small Open Economy Model: A Demographic Approach","authors":"David Oxborrow, S. Turnovsky","doi":"10.1111/roie.12255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12255","url":null,"abstract":"Closing the small open economy model has been a stumbling block in studying the dynamic evolution of such models. The typical procedure of equating the after‐tax return on traded bonds to the rate of time preference involves imposing an arbitrary and constraining knife‐edge condition. This paper replaces the infinitely lived representative agent framework with a plausible demographic structure. This yields a well‐behaved macrodynamic equilibrium without imposing any knife‐edge conditions. The equilibrium dynamics generated by the Rectangular survival function, characteristic of the Samuelson–Diamond model, closely track those corresponding to an empirically estimated survival function. However, the Blanchard survival function tracks the data poorly in terms of absolute levels, while the closeness of its relative dynamics (following a structural change) depends on the source of the structural change.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130936134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Can Elected Minority Representatives Affect Health Worker Visits? Evidence from India 当选的少数民族代表会影响卫生工作者的访问吗?来自印度的证据
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12255
Elizabeth Kaletski, Nishith Prakash
{"title":"Can Elected Minority Representatives Affect Health Worker Visits? Evidence from India","authors":"Elizabeth Kaletski, Nishith Prakash","doi":"10.1111/rode.12255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12255","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between elected minority representatives, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, and health worker visits in rural India. We estimate the effect of minority representation on the frequency of visits to villages by health workers by exploiting the state variation in the share of seats reserved for the two groups in state legislative assemblies mandated by the Constitution of India. Using data from state and village level surveys on fifteen major Indian states, we find that Schedule Tribe representatives increase the frequency of visits by both doctors and mobile medical units. On the other hand, Scheduled Caste representatives have a tendency to decrease the frequency of visits by mobile medical units. Potential explanations for the differential impact of SC and ST representatives are also explored, including geographic isolation, support for the Congress Party, and relative population shares.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126267900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence 黄金主义之争:理论与新证据
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-12-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2806404
Joshua R. Hendrickson
{"title":"The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence","authors":"Joshua R. Hendrickson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2806404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2806404","url":null,"abstract":"The Bullionist Controversy in the United Kingdom is one of the first debates about the determination of the price level and the exchange rate under a paper money standard. Despite the importance of the debate in the development of monetary theory, there remains little empirical evidence that uses modern, multivariate time series techniques. The evidence that does exist provides support for the Anti-Bullionist position that the balance of trade determines the exchange rate and thereby the price level. The purpose of this paper is to review the debate and develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of capturing key features of the 19th-century British financial system. The model is estimated using Bayesian estimation to test the competing hypotheses. The paper provides support for the Bullionist position.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114595799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Einstein’s Criterion Applied to Logical Macro-Economics’ Modeling 爱因斯坦准则在逻辑宏观经济学建模中的应用
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2865571
D. Chester
{"title":"Einstein’s Criterion Applied to Logical Macro-Economics’ Modeling","authors":"D. Chester","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2865571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2865571","url":null,"abstract":"A fully comprehensive representative model of our national macroeconomics is derived from first principles, using the absolutely minimum necessary amount of analytic logic. Two vital features of the procedure for portraying our society are that it is to be modeled by using a diagram, and that it is in the form of a system. This presentation of the structure is essential, for us to properly understand about how our whole macroeconomics system works and to explain and analyze it. Two basic assumptions are necessary to reduce the otherwise undefined complex society to a manageable model. These are firstly that the system connects a number of particular types of traded exchanges of goods, services, access rights, legal documents, etc., and secondly that they pass between various pairs of discrete unique role-playing agents or entities. The many similar exchange activities are idealized aggregates within the paths of the system. It is found that only a limited number of kinds of these exchanges are needed, and that an even smaller number of the entities suffice to cover the whole system. Derived from the general nature of our society, there are but 10 necessarily different kinds of these exchanges and they are sub-divided and included in a table of 19 specific mutual flows of money, being exchanged for goods, services, etc. It is found that these flows need to pass between only 6 entities. From the resulting tabulated list, a block-and-flow diagram or model is drawn. Since the minimum number of activities were logically determined and incorporated using the least number of individual entities, it is concluded that this system is the simplest possible, yet still being a sufficiently complete model of our society, arranged in an absolutely ideal, logical and best scientific form, for further use.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133186850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of Inflation on Stock Market Performance in Pakistan 通货膨胀对巴基斯坦股市表现的影响
ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3425133
Imran Ramzan
{"title":"Impact of Inflation on Stock Market Performance in Pakistan","authors":"Imran Ramzan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3425133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3425133","url":null,"abstract":"The paper attempts to determine the connection of inflation rate with stock market performance in Pakistan. The number of observations ranges from 2009 to 2015, which have been collected from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Economic survey of Pakistan. ADF method is used to test the stationary level, while, co-integration is determined through Johansen test. However, relationship is breakdown through VAR model and direction is examined with the help of Granger test. The results indicate that inflation has negative association with stock market performance. Further, inflation rate cause on stock market performance as indicated by Granger Causality. Therefore, there is need to reduce the inflation rate with the help of monetary policy in order to gain the confidence of local and international investors.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131513539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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