{"title":"Macroeconomic Regime Identification Using a Two-Step Approach With Independent Component Analysis and Hidden Markov Models","authors":"R. Rundle, F. Medda","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3391292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3391292","url":null,"abstract":"Hidden Markov models are often used to identify different regimes. However, in a multivariate setting, correlations between variables may skew the results, leading to potentially flawed analyses. This paper proposes a two-step approach to better identify hidden regimes in macroeconomic time series. In the first step, independent components are extracted from nine macroeconomic time series using second order blind identification (SOBI). In the second step, the independent components are used in a hidden Markov model to identify macroeconomic regimes. The results from the two-step process show increased regime persistence compared with a pure hidden Markov model, suggesting clearer identification of regimes when dealing with correlated time series. The paper also introduces two new measures of the quality of regime classification.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"13 6 Suppl 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116784859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Using Paradata to Collect Better Survey Data: Evidence from a Household Survey in Tanzania","authors":"J. Choumert-Nkolo, H. Cust, Callum Taylor","doi":"10.1111/rode.12583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12583","url":null,"abstract":"Data are a key component in the design, implementation, and evaluation of economic and social policies. Monitoring data quality is an essential part of any serious, large‐scale data collection process. The purpose of this article is to show how paradata should be used before, during, and after data collection to monitor and improve data quality. To do this we use timestamps, global positioning system (GPS) coordinates, and other paradata collected from an 800‐household survey conducted in Tanzania in 2016. We demonstrate how key paradata can be used during each phase of a research project to identify and prevent issues in the data and the methods used to collect it. Our results corroborate the importance of collecting and analyzing paradata to monitor fieldwork and ensuring data quality for micro data collection in developing countries. Based on these findings we also make recommendations as to how researchers can make better use of paradata in the future to manage and improve data quality. We argue for an expansion in the understanding and use of varied paradata among researchers, and a greater focus on its use for improving data quality.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"224 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127186368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Eye of the Beholder. Reconsidering the Notions of Pro‐Poor Growth and Progressivity, with an Application to Vietnam","authors":"G. Erreygers, T. Bui","doi":"10.1111/rode.12576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12576","url":null,"abstract":"Both policymakers and economists have tried to find criteria to assess whether economic growth is pro‐poor. In this paper we reconsider the inequality‐oriented approach originally proposed by Jenkins and Van Kerm. They look at the changes in the whole income distribution, and decompose the change in income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, into a progressivity and a reranking component. They define a pro‐poor (or progressive) change as one where the changes in income are more to the benefit of those who are initially poor than to the benefit of those who are initially rich. We challenge this assumption, and maintain that also the point of view of the finally poor and the finally rich should be taken into account when evaluating whether growth is pro‐poor. We suggest a new decomposition method, based on an inequality index of the generalized entropy family, which allows the change in income inequality to be decomposed exactly into a forward‐looking and a backward‐looking progressivity component. Our empirical illustration, using data from household surveys in Vietnam, shows that economic growth in Vietnam has been pro‐poor from a forward‐looking perspective, but not from a backward‐looking perspective.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130737285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income or Consumption: Which Better Predicts Subjective Well‐Being?","authors":"Tom Carver, A. Grimes","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12414","url":null,"abstract":"The positive relationship between income and subjective well‐being has been well documented. However, work assessing the relationship of alternative material well‐being metrics to subjective well‐being (SWB) is limited. Consistent with the permanent income hypothesis, we find that a consumption‐based measure out‐performs (surveyed) income in predicting subjective well‐being. When objective measures of consumption are combined with self‐assessments of a household’s standard of living, income becomes insignificant altogether. We obtain our result utilizing household‐level data from Statistics New Zealand’s New Zealand General Social Survey which contains measures of income, SWB and a measure of material well‐being called the Economic Living Standard Index that combines measures of consumption flows and self‐assessments of material well‐being.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116866989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Roles of Job and Worker Restructuring in Aggregate Wage Growth Dynamics","authors":"A. Kauhanen, M. Maliranta","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12315","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an approach for measuring and analyzing the dynamics of the standard aggregate wage growth of macro statistics with micro data. Our method decomposes the aggregate wage growth into the wage growth of job stayers and into various terms related to job and worker restructuring. This method produces explicit expressions with clear interpretations for the various restructuring components. Using comprehensive longitudinal employer–employee data, we study how job and worker restructuring influence the aggregate wage growth and its cyclicality. The results highlight the importance of drawing a sharp distinction between job and worker restructuring in the analysis of aggregate wage growth dynamics.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"169 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132392330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income Level and Income Inequality in the Euro‐Mediterranean Region, C. 14–700","authors":"Branko Milanovic","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12329","url":null,"abstract":"Was the Euro-Mediterranean region at the time of the Roman Empire and its Western successor states more unequal than the European Union today? We use some scant evidence on personal income distribution within the Empire and differences in average regional incomes to conclude that the Empire was more homogeneous, in terms of regional incomes, than today's EU, and inter-personal inequality was low. Moreover, income inequality was likely less around year 700 than in Augustus's time. The latter finding contrasts with a view of rising inequality as the Western Roman Empire dissolved.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121920779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR","authors":"","doi":"10.24149/gwp351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp351","url":null,"abstract":"The paper contributes to the growing global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national shocks can be identified within a GVAR framework. The usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of the interactions between public debt and real output growth in a multicountry setting, and the results are compared to those obtained from standard single country VAR analysis. We find that on average (across countries) global shocks explain about one third of the long-horizon forecast error variance of output growth, and about one fifth of the long run variance of the rate of change of debt-to-GDP. Evidence on the degree of cross-sectional dependence in these variables and their innovations are exploited to identify the global shocks, and priors are used to identify the national shocks within a Bayesian framework. It is found that posterior median debt elasticity with respect to output is much larger when the rise in output is due to a fiscal policy shock, as compared to when the rise in output is due to a positive technology shock. The cross country average of the median debt elasticity is 1.58 when the rise in output is due to a fiscal expansion as compared to 0.75 when the rise in output follows from a favorable output shock.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124756476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Vintage Effects in Human Capital: Europe Versus the United States","authors":"R. Inklaar, Maria Papakonstantinou","doi":"10.1111/roiw.12382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12382","url":null,"abstract":"The standard assumption in growth accounting is that an hour worked by a worker of given type delivers a constant quantity of labor services over time. This assumption may be violated due to vintage effects, which were shown to be important in the United States since the early 1980s, leading to an underestimation of the growth of labor input (Bowlus and Robinson, 2012). We apply their method for identifying vintage effects to a comparison between the United States and six European countries. We find that vintage effects led to increases of labor services per hour worked by high-skilled workers in the United States and United Kingdom and decreases in Continental European countries between 1995 and 2005. Rather than productivity growth advantage of the US and UK, the primary difference with Continental European countries was human capital vintage effects instead.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115061432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Timing and Duration of Paternal Migration and the Educational Attainment of Left‐Behind Children: Evidence from Rural China","authors":"S. Wang","doi":"10.1111/rode.12572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12572","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between the migration of men from rural China and the educational attainment of their left‐behind children. The importance of migratory timing and duration are addressed. Using survey data, the study found that compared with rural children of nonmigrant parents, rural children of migrant fathers have a lower probability of being enrolled in school. In addition, the relationship between migratory timing, duration, and school enrollment shows an interesting pattern; children whose fathers migrated when they were infants are more likely to be enrolled in school, but children whose fathers migrated before their birth or after they reached school age are less likely to be enrolled in school. Possible explanations for this pattern are provided.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"68 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113997010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Using Sparse Categorical Principal Components to Estimate Asset Indices: New Methods with an Application to Rural Southeast Asia","authors":"G. Merola, B. Baulch","doi":"10.1111/rode.12568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12568","url":null,"abstract":"Asset indices have been used since the late 1990s to measure wealth in developing countries. We extend the standard methodology for estimating asset indices using principal component analysis in two ways: by introducing constraints that force the indices to have increasing value as the number of assets owned increases, and by estimating sparse indices with a few key assets. This is achieved by combining categorical and sparse principal component analysis. We also apply this methodology to the estimation of per capita level asset indices. Using household survey data from northwest Vietnam and northeast Laos, we show that the resulting asset indices improve the prediction and ranking of income both at household and per capita level.","PeriodicalId":443911,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128475194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}