Central Bank Review最新文献_第7页

Card spending dynamics in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间土耳其的信用卡消费动态

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002

Zeynep Kantur , Gülserim Özcan

{"title":"Card spending dynamics in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Zeynep Kantur , Gülserim Özcan","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing conditions of Turkey, the 2018 currency crisis, we observe that the recovery in demand is not that strong. To highlight the underlying reasons for structural change in aggregate demand, we estimate the model with <em>stringency index</em> and <em>unemployment-related search index</em>. The estimated model indicates that containment measures and restrictions and fear of job/income loss mainly explain the overall impact of COVID-19 on aggregate demand. We also examined sectoral data to understand aggregate demand dynamics better. Only stable and delayable sector groups have reached a trend above their pre-pandemic trajectories. However, the social and work-related sectors are far from their respective pre-pandemic trend.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 3","pages":"Pages 71-86"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.07.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86532646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Okun’s law under the demographic dynamics of the Turkish labor market 奥肯定律在土耳其劳动力市场的人口动态下

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002

Evren Erdoğan Coşar, Ayşe Arzu Yavuz

{"title":"Okun’s law under the demographic dynamics of the Turkish labor market","authors":"Evren Erdoğan Coşar, Ayşe Arzu Yavuz","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the asymmetric relationships between demographic characteristics of labor market variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Turkish economy. Both expansions and recessions are considered in a Markov Switching (MS) model, using quarterly data between 1989 and 2019. Okun’s coefficients are estimated for the different age groups, genders and education levels. The results reveal that men are more likely to lose their jobs during recessions in Turkey whereas unemployment rates for 25-39 year-olds and those with at least university degrees are the least affected groups. There is also asymmetry within and between states across the demographic groups due to GDP phases. The study also investigates the gender dynamics of labor force participation rates (LFPR) as a fundamental determinant of unemployment rate. According to the MS models, LFPR responds significantly and positively to GDP expansions for men whereas it is significant and negative for women. That is, as economic activity begins to recover after a recession, Turkish women leave the labor force as secondary income earners.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 59-69"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74376106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Hidden reserves as an alternative channel of firm finance 隐性储备作为企业融资的另一种渠道

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.04.001

İbrahim Yarba

引用次数: 0

A measure of Turkey's sovereign and banking sector credit risk: Asset swap spreads 衡量土耳其主权和银行业信用风险的指标:资产互换价差

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.05.001

Doruk Küçüksaraç, Abdullah Kazdal, Halil İbrahim Korkmaz, Yiğit Onay

{"title":"A measure of Turkey's sovereign and banking sector credit risk: Asset swap spreads","authors":"Doruk Küçüksaraç, Abdullah Kazdal, Halil İbrahim Korkmaz, Yiğit Onay","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The existence of the credit derivatives written on the eurobonds such as credit default swaps or asset swaps allows policymakers and investors to monitor the evolvement of credit risk. However, these instruments are mostly available in advanced economies, whereas the market for credit derivatives in emerging market countries, including Turkey, is limited in terms of liquidity and maturity. In this regard, this study aims to construct a proxy for the credit risk of the Turkish Treasury and banking sector in international markets by calculating asset swap spread for US dollar-denominated fixed coupon eurobonds, which requires a robust estimation of the relevant yield curves. The study firstly presents the estimation of the sovereign and banking sector yield curves and then constructs a synthetic asset swap structure to obtain embedded credit risk premia in the eurobond curves. Our findings show that the proposed credit risk indicator is vastly correlated with credit default swap premium. In addition to this, estimated eurobond curves are also useful for monitoring borrowing cost dynamics of the Turkish Treasury and banking sector in international markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 49-57"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.05.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132726547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The asymmetric J-curve phenomenon: Kenya versus her trading partners 不对称j曲线现象:肯尼亚与其贸易伙伴

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.001

Moses Mutharime Mwito, Beatrice K. Mkenda, Eliab Luvanda

{"title":"The asymmetric J-curve phenomenon: Kenya versus her trading partners","authors":"Moses Mutharime Mwito, Beatrice K. Mkenda, Eliab Luvanda","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines asymmetries in the J-curve effects of real exchange rate on Kenya’s trade balance by using panel data for bilateral trade with 30 trading partners. The data covers the period from 2006q1 to 2018q4 and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique, under both the linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks, is applied. This paper departs from previous studies by using a modified version of the standard trade balance model, which is more suited for bilateral trade analyses, and by incorporating nonlinearities. The findings of the PMG estimation based on the assumption of symmetric exchange rate effects reveal J-curve effects in only 7 bilateral trade relations. However, when the estimation is performed assuming asymmetric effects, the J-curve effects are evident in 13 cases. Long-run and short-run asymmetries are also confirmed and it is established that a simultaneous bilateral real depreciation of the exchange rate boosts the long-run trade balance. The implication of these findings is that a devaluation policy can be used to raise competitiveness of Kenya’s exports in the long-run.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"Pages 25-34"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82547180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles 关于先前发表的文章中缺少竞争利益声明的勘误表

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.004

引用次数: 0

The new investment landscape: Equity crowdfunding 新的投资格局:股权众筹

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.01.001

Burze Yasar

引用次数: 27

Do regional house prices converge? Evidence from a major developing economy 地区房价会趋同吗?来自一个主要发展中经济体的证据

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.001

Aytül Ganioğlu , Ünal Seven

引用次数: 6

Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles 关于先前发表的文章中缺少竞争利益声明的勘误表

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.03.003

引用次数: 0

Revisiting interest rate and lending channels of monetary policy transmission in the light of theoretical prescriptions 从理论处方出发，重新审视货币政策传导的利率和贷款渠道

IF 2.8

Central Bank Review Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.002

Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu, Imhotep Paul Alagidede

{"title":"Revisiting interest rate and lending channels of monetary policy transmission in the light of theoretical prescriptions","authors":"Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu, Imhotep Paul Alagidede","doi":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although theories on channels of monetary policy transmission emphasize indirect monetary policy effect on inflation and output, empirical literature is surprisingly rooted in a direct approach. The use of variants of vector autoregression, with theoretical ordering of variables, does not only fail to quantify the indirect effect, but are also fraught with disagreements on identification of shocks of monetary policy. We revisit the interest rate and lending channels of monetary policy transmission in an approach that is grounded in theory and elicits step-by-step transmission of monetary policy impulses and the eventual effect on inflation in South Africa. We find interest rate and lending channels to be operative in South Africa. For the interest rate channel, a percentage restriction in monetary policy increases lending rate by 0.29%; a percentage increase in the lending rate reduces investment by 0.063%; and a percentage fall in investment reduces inflation by 0.074%. For the lending channel, a percentage restriction of monetary policy reduces banking sector credit by 0.22%; a percentage fall in private sector credit reduces investment by 0.20%; and a percentage decline in investment reduces inflation by 0.086%. These results are robust to different samples and specifications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":43998,"journal":{"name":"Central Bank Review","volume":"20 4","pages":"Pages 183-192"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.09.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74658953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 19