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Finland’s public sector balance sheet 芬兰公共部门的资产负债表
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1585062
M. Brede, Christian Henn
{"title":"Finland’s public sector balance sheet","authors":"M. Brede, Christian Henn","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2019.1585062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2019.1585062","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We construct comprehensive public sector balance sheets for Finland for 2000–2016 by complementing general government statistics with data on public corporations and pensions. These static balance sheets show that Finland’s public sector net worth at end 2016 was −160 percent of GDP, after having registered considerable fluctuations previously, including due to asset holdings’ sensitivity to equity valuations. We then expand the analysis to an intertemporal balance sheet by adding present value estimates of future fiscal flows. This allows performing fiscal stress tests and policy experiments. These suggest that Finland’s public finances will remain sound if ongoing reform efforts to address aging pressures yield their expected savings. Under this assumption, intertemporal financial net worth (IFNW) of the public sector would exceed 50 percent of GDP – well within the 30–85 percent of GDP range derived in stress tests as the needed buffer to maintain positive IFNW in light of a severe shock.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":"176 - 194"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2019.1585062","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46416183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Cyclicality in lending activity of Euro area in pre- and post- 2008 crisis: a local-adaptive-based testing of wavelets 2008年危机前后欧元区贷款活动的周期性:基于局部适应性的小波测试
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2019.1596466
J. Poměnková, E. Klejmova, Z. Kučerová
{"title":"Cyclicality in lending activity of Euro area in pre- and post- 2008 crisis: a local-adaptive-based testing of wavelets","authors":"J. Poměnková, E. Klejmova, Z. Kučerová","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2019.1596466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2019.1596466","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The paper deals with the identification of time-frequency regions describing cyclicality of bank loans before, during and after the 2008 crisis via wavelets. We bring new methods and findings about the short and medium cycles of loans provided to corporates and households in the Euro Area in 2000–2017 using seasonally unadjusted monthly data. We have recognized an impact of the crisis on data volatility which further influences the type of significance testing of wavelet spectrograms. To avoid this influence we propose: (1) an adaptive spectrogram testing based on Torrence and Compo approach and (2) robustness analysis via enhanced spectrogram modelling tested by the MC simulations. Both cross-checked approaches prove the sensitivity of standard wavelet tests on data volatility. The results confirm the usability of the new approaches and show that the crisis in 2008 influenced the cyclical behaviour of both categories of economic sectors, but in a different way.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":"155 - 175"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2019.1596466","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49098965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Business orientation, efficiency, and credit quality across business cycle: Islamic versus conventional banking. Are there any lessons for Europe and Baltic States? 整个商业周期的业务导向、效率和信贷质量：伊斯兰银行与传统银行的对比。欧洲和波罗的海国家有什么教训吗？
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1560947
Nosheen, A. Rashid
{"title":"Business orientation, efficiency, and credit quality across business cycle: Islamic versus conventional banking. Are there any lessons for Europe and Baltic States?","authors":"Nosheen, A. Rashid","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1560947","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1560947","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper empirically investigates the difference between Islamic and conventional banks in terms of business dynamics, cost structure, credit quality, and stability. It also examines the difference in the response of two types of banks during peak and trough phases of the business cycle. The analysis is carried out for a sample of 280 banks in 20 countries over the 1995–2014 period. The results reveal that Islamic banks are more involved in fee-based business, are less cost-efficient, have higher credit quality, and have higher capitalization than conventional banks. We also find that Islamic banks outperformed conventional banks with regard to their credit quality and stability indicators during the trough phase of the business cycle. The improved performance seems to be due to the differences in the provisioning strategies of the two types of banks, the non-aggressive lending profile of Islamic banks, and investment in real assets. Finally, based on the empirical findings, the paper also highlights potential lessons that conventional banks in Baltic States, which were severely hit by the 2007–2008 global financial crisis, can draw from Islamic banking principles.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":"105 - 135"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1560947","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44131895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
How do oil price changes affect inflation in Central and Eastern European countries? A wavelet-based Markov switching approach 石油价格变化如何影响中欧和东欧国家的通货膨胀？一种基于小波的马尔可夫切换方法
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2018-12-25 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1562011
D. Živkov, Jasmina Đurašković, S. Manić
{"title":"How do oil price changes affect inflation in Central and Eastern European countries? A wavelet-based Markov switching approach","authors":"D. Živkov, Jasmina Đurašković, S. Manić","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1562011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1562011","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper investigates how oil price changes affect consumer price inflation in eleven Central and Eastern European countries. We use a wavelet-based Markov switching approach in order to distinguish between the effects at different time horizons. We find that the transmission of oil price changes to inflation is relatively low in the Central and Eastern European countries as an increase in the oil price of 100% is followed by a rise in inflation of 1–6 percentage points. The strongest impact from rising oil price on inflation is found for the longer time-horizons for most of the countries, which means that the indirect spillover effect is more intensive than the direct one. Also, the results indicate that exchange rate is not a significant factor when oil shocks are transmitted towards inflation, except in the occasions when high depreciation occurs. Slovakia and Bulgaria are the countries which experience the highest and most consistent pass-through effect throughout the observed sample, and this may be due to these countries having some of the highest oil import/GDP ratios.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":"104 - 84"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1562011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44549989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 41
Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area 克里米亚与惩罚：制裁对俄罗斯经济和欧元区经济的影响
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2018-12-07 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547566
K. Kholodilin, A. Netšunajev
{"title":"Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area","authors":"K. Kholodilin, A. Netšunajev","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547566","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led Western countries and Russia to impose economic sanctions on each other, including the euro zone members. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of sanctions are analyzed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the effect we are interested in, we include an index that measures the intensity of the sanctions in the model. The sanction shock is identified and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. We find weak evidence that Russian and euro area GDPs declined as a result of the sanctions. The effects of the sanctions are also small for the real effective exchange rate.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":"39 - 51"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547566","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48313415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 38
Do macroprudential policy instruments reduce the procyclical impact of capital ratio on bank lending? Cross-country evidence 宏观审慎政策工具是否降低了资本比率对银行贷款的顺周期影响？跨国证据
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2018-12-06 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547565
M. Olszak, S. Roszkowska, I. Kowalska
{"title":"Do macroprudential policy instruments reduce the procyclical impact of capital ratio on bank lending? Cross-country evidence","authors":"M. Olszak, S. Roszkowska, I. Kowalska","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547565","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this paper, we ask about the capacity of macroprudential policies to reduce the procyclical impact of capital ratio on bank lending. We focus on aggregated macroprudential policy measures and on individual instruments and test whether their effect on the association between lending and capital depends on bank size. Applying the GMM 2-step Blundell and Bond approach to a sample covering over 60 countries, we find that macroprudential policy instruments reduce the procyclical impact of capital on bank lending during both crisis and non-crisis times. This result is stronger in large banks than in other banks. Of individual macroprudential instruments, only borrower-targeted LTV caps and DTI ratio weaken the association between lending and capital and thus act countecyclically. Generally, with our study we are able to support the view that macroprudential policy has the potential to curb the procyclical impact of bank capital on lending and therefore, the introduction of more restrictive international capital standards included in Basel III and of macroprudential policies are fully justified.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":"1 - 38"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547565","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43931023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Network-based macro fluctuations: what about an open economy? 基于网络的宏观波动:开放经济如何?
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2018-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1517997
Mihnea Constantinescu, Kristina Barauskaite
{"title":"Network-based macro fluctuations: what about an open economy?","authors":"Mihnea Constantinescu, Kristina Barauskaite","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1517997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1517997","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Do input–output linkages of intermediate products affect the spread of sectoral shocks at the aggregate level in Lithuania, a small and open economy? What role does openness play in the empirical exercise? We answer these questions by: (i) constructing the Lithuanian input–output transactions tables with domestic-only and domestic and imported sector-by-sector direct requirements, and (ii) applying Acemoglu, Carvalho, Ozdaglar, and Tahbaz-Salehis [(2012). The network origins of aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 80(5), 1977–2016] network-based methodology and Gabaix and Ibragimov's [(2011). Rank-1/2: A simple way to improve the ols estimation of tail exponents. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 29(1), 24–39] modified log rank-log size regression. Our results indicate that the structure of input–output linkages cause aggregate economic volatility to decay at a rate lower than the established theoretical prediction. Indirect linkages play an equally important role for both domestic-only and aggregated domestic and import transactions.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"117 - 95"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1517997","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48321688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Job retention among older workers in central and Eastern Europe 中欧和东欧老年工人的工作保留率
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2018-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1514562
Wojciech Hardy, Aneta Kiełczewska, P. Lewandowski, I. Magda
{"title":"Job retention among older workers in central and Eastern Europe","authors":"Wojciech Hardy, Aneta Kiełczewska, P. Lewandowski, I. Magda","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1514562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1514562","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We study job retention rates – the shares of workers who continue to work in the same job over the next five years – in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Job retention among older workers is key to prolonging careers and increasing employment of older people which in turn is a crucial challenge for these countries. We find that the retention rates among workers aged 55–59 are low and amount to about a half of the retention rates among prime aged workers. Only in Poland the retention rates of older workers have increased for both men and women between 1998 and 2013. The individuals least likely to retain jobs after the age of 60 were women, those with lower education, working in industry, in medium or low-skilled occupations, and those living with a non-working partner. The policies aimed at encouraging job retention in Central and Eastern Europe should focus on these groups of workers.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"69 - 94"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1514562","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46128267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Ragnar Nurkse and the international financial architecture* Ragnar Nurkse与国际金融架构*
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2018-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1540186
Barry Eichengreen
{"title":"Ragnar Nurkse and the international financial architecture*","authors":"Barry Eichengreen","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1540186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1540186","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This lecture discusses the work by the Estonian economist Ragnar Nurkse (1907–1959). It focuses on the early Nurkse, who was concerned with exchange rates, capital flows and what today we call the international financial architecture. It asks how many of the conclusions of International Currency Experience [Nurkse, R. (1944). International Currency Experience. Geneva: League of Nations.] survive. How many of Nurkse’s points about the interwar gold standard are confirmed by subsequent scholarship? How many of his points are still relevant to the international monetary problems of today?","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"118 - 128"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1540186","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42549200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Minimum wages and employment retention: A microeconometric study for Estonia 最低工资和就业保留:爱沙尼亚的微观计量经济学研究
IF 1.1 3区 经济学
Baltic Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1485422
S. Ferraro, Birgit Hänilane, K. Staehr
{"title":"Minimum wages and employment retention: A microeconometric study for Estonia","authors":"S. Ferraro, Birgit Hänilane, K. Staehr","doi":"10.1080/1406099X.2018.1485422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1485422","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper assesses the effect of increases in the Estonian minimum wage in 2013–2016 on the probability of workers at different wage levels retaining employment. The effect is identified by comparing the probability of workers remaining employed after increases in the minimum wage in 2013–2016 with the probability of workers at comparable wage levels remaining employed in the 2009–2011 when the minimum wage was left unchanged. Estimations on data from the Estonian Labour Force Survey show that the increases in the minimum wage in 2013–2016 had no or small and imprecisely estimated effects on employment retention for the directly affected workers and similarly for those indirectly affected. These results are robust to the choice of control variables, to refinements of the treatment group and to changes in the time sample.","PeriodicalId":43756,"journal":{"name":"Baltic Journal of Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":"51 - 67"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/1406099X.2018.1485422","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43733769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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