Topher L. McDougal, Talia Hagerty, Lisa Inks, C. Dowd, S. Conroy
{"title":"Macroeconomic benefits of farmer-pastoralist peace in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: An input-output analysis approach","authors":"Topher L. McDougal, Talia Hagerty, Lisa Inks, C. Dowd, S. Conroy","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.10.1.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.10.1.66","url":null,"abstract":"This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction in farmer-pastoralist violence in four Middle Belt states of Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau). Farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Farmer-pastoralist violence in these states is a relatively low-intensity form of conflict, but it is regionally widespread and chronic, and its incidence is arguably increasing. Using estimates of potential income benefits of peace at the household-level derived from a related study, we herein derive macroeconomic benefits via an input-output model of the Nigerian economy. We estimate these benefits to amount to around 2.8 percent of the nominal Nigerian GDP (or around 0.8 percent of the total Nigerian GDP, inclusive of the informal sector), representing a major macroeconomic opportunity. We break out these benefits by sector, showing that the sectors that stand to gain most from peace are the crop production, food and beverage, livestock, and chemical and petroleum industries.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"66-77"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Political instability and discontinuity in Nigeria: The pre-colonial past and public goods provision under colonial and post-colonial political orders","authors":"Kostadis J. Papaioannou, Angus Dalrymple-Smith","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.10.1.40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.10.1.40","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores the relative importance of pre-colonial institutional capacity and the effects of periods of peace and stability on long-term development outcomes in Nigeria. We use data on education, health, and public works at a provincial level from a variety of colonial and Nigerian state sources to apply a decade-by-decade analysis of public goods provision in Nigeria from 1900 to 2010. Using a newly constructed measure of pre-colonial institutional capacity our results suggest that colonial-era investments were influenced by pre-colonial conditions and that the pax colonia allowed for a strong path dependency until the second world war. Contrary to other studies, which find evidence of pre-colonial centralization affecting current outcomes. In particular, we find that the post-1945 era saw a break in the pattern developed earlier in the century. Rising regionalism from the 1950s led to violent conflict and military dictatorship and caused decades of unstable and unpredictable patterns of investment which ended only with the reestablishment of democracy in the 1990s. Therefore, a key explanatory variable to understanding patterns of public goods provision seems to be the level of political stability which the Nigerian state experienced at different points during the 20th century.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"10 1","pages":"40-53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66908155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sicherheitspolitik im Arktischen Rat? Lieber nicht!","authors":"Christoph Humrich","doi":"10.5771/0175-274X-2015-3-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5771/0175-274X-2015-3-23","url":null,"abstract":"Ongoing political, legal, environmental and economic changes open up the Arctic. This has implications for regional security. The article tackles the question whether the preeminent regional institution, the Arctic Council, should include security-related topics in its portfolio to deal with the emerging challenges. The article argues that the regional security issues will be taken care of better in other institutions for at least two reasons: dealing with security-related topics might negatively impact the Arctic Council’s institutional practice, while at the same time the Arctic Council might not provide the best institutional background needed to cope with the most pertinent issues on the security agenda.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"28 1","pages":"23-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86844811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"External actors’ role in solving local collective action problems in a post-conflict setting: A case study of Turkish Cypriot beekeepers","authors":"Omer Gokcekus, C. Finnegan, H. Çakal","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.19","url":null,"abstract":"In addition to legal constraints and social-psychological barriers, in a post-conflict setting mutually beneficial economic transactions might not occur due to the widening gap between the health, quality, and environmental standards of the parties. A lack of incentives during the years of conflict prevent the members of the weaker party, the one economically isolated from the rest of the world, from engaging in the collective learning necessary to upgrade the health and packaging standards of their commodities. In this study, we detail the technical, political, and legal challenges external actors must consider in order to successfully help small businesses in a post-conflict environment. Specifically, we explain how the EU helped Turkish Cypriot beekeepers by supplying funds to support training and educational programs, and upgrade the equipment used by the beekeepers. We demonstrate that third parties, like the EU, can provide the impetus for domestic institutions—such as producers associations, chambers of commerce, and cooperatives—to overcome their collective action problem. [JEL codes: D74, H56, O1]","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"19-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66913990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Hearts and minds cannot be bought: Ineffective reconstruction in Afghanistan","authors":"T. Child","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.43","url":null,"abstract":"Recent work has suggested the foreign-led reconstruction effort carried out in Afghanistan and Iraq can mitigate violence because it helps win the “hearts and minds” of local people. For the case of Afghanistan, we show there is no evidence behind such an assertion. Analyzing unique data on Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) spending across the country from 2005 to 2009, we find no discernible effect of the reconstruction effort on violence. In light of the absence of empirical evidence for the success of the CERP, we suggest the hearts and minds credo currently guiding U.S. policy be reconsidered","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"43-49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66914248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Violence and socioeconomic conditions in Cape Town","authors":"J. Seekings, Kai M. Thaler","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.34","url":null,"abstract":"There is considerable debate over the causes of violence around the world, one which goes beyond the analysis of conflict to consider the dynamics of community behavior and the importance of economic and behavioral factors. One of the most interesting countries to study is South Africa, where violence seems to have increased rather than declined since democratization. South Africa competes with Colombia, Venezuela, and a number of Central American countries for the unwelcome distinction of having among the world’s highest homicide rates, and high prevalence of other forms of violence, including domestic and sexual violence, are also appallingly prevalent. This article presents an analysis of data from a panel of young men in Cape Town. It provides little support for the hypothesis that unemployment and poverty are direct causes of violence against strangers. The impact of drinking (or taking drugs) by adults in the home or by the young men themselves, living in a bad neighborhood, and immediate poverty are associated with violence against strangers, but being unemployed is not. This suggests that few young people in South Africa in the early 2000s come from backgrounds that strongly predispose them against the use of violence. [JEL codes: D74, O55]","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66914124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"THE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES ON LAND CONFLICTS, VIOLENCE, AND COMMUNITY TRUST: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM BURUNDI","authors":"Topher L. McDougal, L. Almquist","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.5","url":null,"abstract":"Facing a population growth rate of 3.2 percent and dwindling per capita land access, many rural communities in Burundi are experimenting with land cooperatives to collectivize risk, share information, reap economies of scale (if any), and build trust between association members. We use unique field data gathered by one author (Almquist) during a one-shot evaluation of a cooperative association operating in three villages in southern Burundi. We employ pseudo difference-in-differences logistic regression models to assess the effects of the cooperative on the (1) incidence of reported land conflicts between 2008 and 2011, (2) perceived community land inequality, (3) reported acceptability of land inequality, (4) violence toward acquaintances, (5) trust of colleagues, and (6) trust of neighbors. We find no evidence that cooperatives affect the incidence of land conflicts, but do find that residents of cooperative villages exhibit heightened perceptions of, and lower tolerance for, land inequalities; they are less likely to report violence toward acquaintances, but cooperative members are more likely to do so than nonmembers; and nonmember residents of active cooperative villages report less trust toward neighbors. We speculate that one weakness of cooperatives is that they may heighten the risk of violence between members and nonmembers.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"5-18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66914307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"IDENTIFYING CORRUPTION RISKS IN THE DEFENSE AND SECURITY SECTOR: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE USING THE GOVERNMENT DEFENSE ANTI-CORRUPTION INDEX","authors":"Oliver Cover, S. Mustafa","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.27","url":null,"abstract":"This article contributes to the debate on conceptualizing corruption by suggesting that sector-specific typologies of corruption risks are useful heuristics that encourage understanding of corruption without attempting to define it in a way that is inherently contestable or inappropriately succinct. To develop this position, this article reflects on the difficulties in trying to define corruption in both general terms and within the context of the defense and security sector. It then details a corruption risk typology in use in the sector, explains how it was used to provide the theoretical backdrop for a global index, and then submits the typology’s five main risk areas to empirical testing using that same index’s results. The models that result show that this typology’s risk areas display sufficient internal coherence for its key risk areas to be of use not only to practitioners, but also to the sector analyst and academic attentive to conceptual concerns.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"27-33"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66914069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Social Capital, Sociopolitical Instability, and Economic Development: A General Equilibrium Model","authors":"Javier Alcántar-Toledo, Yannis P. Venieris","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.9.1.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.9.1.19","url":null,"abstract":"This essay describes the main features of a general equilibrium model of social capital and social conflict. According to the model, agents decide to participate in a number of conflict events while, at the same time, accumulate social capital. In the process, the government interacts with the economic actors by discouraging civil disobedience and social violence. The results show that social conflict is decreasing with the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, social capital, and government expenses on social development programs. Output growth in the economy depends positively upon accumulation of all types of capitals and social development funding, and negatively upon social conflict. More importantly, social capital is found to have a considerable positive effect on growth not only directly via investment, as suggested by recent empirical literature, but also indirectly by reducing the levels of social conflict. The model shows that the growth trajectories of the economy display a history-dependent pattern of growth with multiple-equilibria where countries converge to a nontrivial stable steady-state in the long-run. We also provide evidence in favor of the club convergence hypothesis which is predicated upon the initial levels of all types of capitals and the underlying level of social conflict.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"19-27"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66913575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effect of Media on Domestic Violence Norms: Evidence from India","authors":"K. Bhushan, Prakarsh Singh","doi":"10.15355/EPSJ.9.1.58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15355/EPSJ.9.1.58","url":null,"abstract":"Greater access to media may influence norms about domestic violence. It may lead to greater acceptance of violence due to an increase in the incidence of violence or to lower acceptance due to a change in gender norms. Applying a difference-in-differences methodology to the National Family Health Survey, India (1998-99 and 2005-06), we find evidence that regularly accessing television and radio leads to a small but statistically significant reduction in the probability of women accepting domestic violence. The effect of regularly accessing both media is equivalent to the effect of three additional years of education on reducing acceptability of domestic violence. This suggests that increasing access to both media may lead to greater empowerment of women in India.","PeriodicalId":43334,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Peace and Security Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"58-63"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2014-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66913906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}