尼日利亚的政治不稳定和不连续性:殖民和后殖民政治秩序下的前殖民历史和公共产品供应

IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS
Kostadis J. Papaioannou, Angus Dalrymple-Smith
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本文探讨了前殖民时期机构能力的相对重要性,以及和平与稳定时期对尼日利亚长期发展成果的影响。我们使用来自各种殖民地和尼日利亚国家来源的省级教育、卫生和公共工程数据,对尼日利亚1900年至2010年的公共产品供应进行了十年一十年的分析。使用一种新构建的前殖民制度能力衡量方法,我们的研究结果表明,殖民时代的投资受到前殖民条件的影响,殖民地和平允许强烈的路径依赖,直到第二次世界大战。与其他研究相反,这些研究发现了殖民前集中化影响当前结果的证据。特别是,我们发现,1945年后,本世纪初形成的这种模式出现了突破。从1950年代起,日益高涨的地区主义导致了暴力冲突和军事独裁,并造成了数十年不稳定和不可预测的投资模式,直到1990年代重建民主制度才结束。因此,理解公共产品提供模式的一个关键解释变量似乎是尼日利亚国家在20世纪不同时期所经历的政治稳定水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Political instability and discontinuity in Nigeria: The pre-colonial past and public goods provision under colonial and post-colonial political orders
This article explores the relative importance of pre-colonial institutional capacity and the effects of periods of peace and stability on long-term development outcomes in Nigeria. We use data on education, health, and public works at a provincial level from a variety of colonial and Nigerian state sources to apply a decade-by-decade analysis of public goods provision in Nigeria from 1900 to 2010. Using a newly constructed measure of pre-colonial institutional capacity our results suggest that colonial-era investments were influenced by pre-colonial conditions and that the pax colonia allowed for a strong path dependency until the second world war. Contrary to other studies, which find evidence of pre-colonial centralization affecting current outcomes. In particular, we find that the post-1945 era saw a break in the pattern developed earlier in the century. Rising regionalism from the 1950s led to violent conflict and military dictatorship and caused decades of unstable and unpredictable patterns of investment which ended only with the reestablishment of democracy in the 1990s. Therefore, a key explanatory variable to understanding patterns of public goods provision seems to be the level of political stability which the Nigerian state experienced at different points during the 20th century.
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CiteScore
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