Environmental Research: Climate最新文献

{"title":"Climate science as foundation for global climate negotiations","authors":"P. Forster, A. Pirani, D. Rosen, J. Rogelj, Jolene Cook","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acc67f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acc67f","url":null,"abstract":"One of the successes of COP26 (the 26th Conference of the Parties) was the prominence of climate science and its implications. Science was written into the Glasgow Climate Pact, recognizing ‘the importance of the best available science for effective climate action and policy making’. This paper discusses the reasons for COP26’s success and reflects on subsequent events at COP27. The continued importance of science in global climate negotiations throughout this critical decade for climate is clear.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116577024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected expansion of hottest climate zones over Africa during the mid and late 21st century","authors":"Alima Dajuma, M. B. Sylla, Moustapha Tall, M. Almazroui, Nourredine Yassa, A. Diedhiou, F. Giorgi","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acc08a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acc08a","url":null,"abstract":"Projected shifts in thermal climate zones over Africa during the mid and late 21st century are assessed by employing the Thornthwaite thermal classification applied to 40 CMIP6 global climate models under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 forcing scenarios. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean reproduces the observed pattern of thermal zones during the reference period, albeit with some discrepancies. The projections reveal a gradual expansion of the hottest thermal type consisting of a northward and southward displacement of torrid climate zones, with this effect intensifying as greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing increases and the time horizon moves from the mid to the end of the century. In particular, the Mediterranean region, almost all southern African countries, part of East Africa and most Madagascar predominantly warm in present-day conditions, are projected to face mostly hot climates in the mid—21st century and torrid by the end of the 21st century in the high-end forcing scenario. Generally, in the mid—21st century, torrid climates expand by up to ∼15%, 20% and 27% of total Africa’s land areas for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, with these fractions increasing to ∼16%, 28% and 42% in the late 21st century. Therefore, at the end of the 21st century for the high-end GHG concentration scenario, the African continent will be covered by 81%–87% of torrid climate type, which will have enormous impacts on the sustainable development of African countries.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115522495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tundra cryogenic land surface processes and CO2–C balance in sub-Arctic alpine environment withstand winter and spring warming","authors":"M. Väisänen, J. Klaminder, H. Ylänne, L. Teuber, E. Dorrepaal, E. J. Krab","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acc08b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acc08b","url":null,"abstract":"Cryogenic land surface processes (CLSPs), such as cryoturbation, are currently active in landscapes covering 25% of our planet where they dictate key functions, such as carbon (C) cycling, and maintain patterned landscape features. While CLSPs are expected to diminish in the near future due to milder winters especially in the southern parts of the Arctic, the shifts in C cycling in these landscapes may be more complex, since climate change can affect C cycling directly but also indirectly via CLSPs. Here, we study the effects of changing winter and spring climate on CLSPs and C cycling in non-sorted circles consisting of barren frost boils and their vegetated rims. We do this by measuring cryoturbation and ecosystem CO2 fluxes repeatedly in alpine subarctic tundra where temperatures during naturally snow covered period have been experimentally increased with snow-trapping fences and temperatures during winter and spring period after snowmelt have been increased with insulating fleeces. Opposite to our hypothesis, warming treatments did not decrease cryoturbation. However, winter warming via deeper snow increased ecosystem C sink during summer by decreasing ecosystem CO2 release in the frost boils and by counterbalancing the negative effects of cryoturbation on plant CO2 uptake in the vegetated rims. Our results suggest that short-term changes in winter and spring climate may not alter cryoturbation and jeopardize the tundra C sink.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117135151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan","authors":"F. Otto, M. Zachariah, F. Saeed, A. Siddiqi, Shahzad Kamil, H. Mushtaq, Arulalan T, K. AchutaRao, Chaitra S T, Clair Barnes, S. Philip, S. Kew, R. Vautard, Gerbrand Koren, Izidine Pinto, P. Wolski, Maja Vahlberg, Roop K. Singh, J. Arrighi, M. V. van Aalst, L. Thalheimer, E. Raju, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, L. Harrington, B. Clarke","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acbfd5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acbfd5","url":null,"abstract":"As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129597168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pathways to sustain atolls under rising sea levels through land claim and island raising","authors":"Sally Brown, R. Nicholls, A. Bloodworth, Oliver Bragg, Audrey Clauss, Stuart Field, Laura Gibbons, Milda Pladaitė, Malcolm Szuplewski, J. Watling, Ali A. Shareef, Zammath Khaleel","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acb4b3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb4b3","url":null,"abstract":"Low-lying atoll nations (e.g. the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Marshall Islands) are highly vulnerable to climate change, especially sea-level rise (SLR). Stringent climate change mitigation will slow but not stop SLR, which will continue for centuries, mandating additional long-term adaptation. At the same time, urbanisation is concentrating population in a few centres, especially around capital islands which creates additional pressure as most atoll nations are ‘land-poor’. This paper demonstrates how structural adaptation using land claim and island raising can be utilised within an adaptation pathway approach to sustain enough islands and land area above rising sea levels to satisfy societal and economic needs over multiple centuries. This approach is illustrated using the Maldives, especially around the capital and its environs (Greater Malé). Raising, expanding and connecting ‘urban’ islands can provide multiple benefits. Significant developments have already occurred in Greater Malé and further developments there and for other urban centres in the Maldives are expected. Migration to urban centres, especially Malé, is widespread and this adaptation approach assumes this trend continues, implying many other islands are depopulated or abandoned. Tourism is core to the Maldives economy and tourist islands require a different ambience to urban islands. They could be sustained with sympathetic soft engineering reinforcing the natural processes that produce atolls. While land advance and island raising provides a technical solution for SLR, any application must also address the additional policy, human, physical, engineering and economic/financial challenges that are raised. Nonetheless, by aligning adaptation through land advance/raising with existing development trends, atoll nations have the potential to persist and prosper for many centuries even as sea levels inevitably rise. This provides a realistic alternative to widespread assumptions about forced migration and ultimate national abandonment. The lessons here may find wider application to other small island settings and even mainland coasts.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"31 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128563692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Activating an evidence-based identity increases the impact of evidence on policymaker beliefs about local climate policies","authors":"K. Hirsch, G. Wong‐Parodi","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acbbe4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acbbe4","url":null,"abstract":"Evidence-based policymaking has the potential to improve the efficiency and impact of climate mitigation and adaptation policies, but that promise cannot be fulfilled if policymakers fail to change their minds (update their beliefs) when presented with new evidence. Research suggests that individuals often resist changing their mind, especially on polarized topics like climate action. Here we explore whether an ‘evidence-based policymaker’ intervention can reduce resistance when policymakers interpret new information. We hypothesize that, if policymakers wish to see themselves as ‘evidence-based’, reminding them of that identity can make changing their beliefs more comfortable. This is because belief-updating provides an opportunity to affirm their identity as an evidence-based policymaker. In two survey studies of state and local U.S. policymakers—a neutral policy pilot (n = 152) and a polarizing climate policy experiment (n = 356)—we show that the intervention was effective, even when evidence was incompatible with prior policy beliefs or party ideology. This finding suggests that making evidence-based identities salient when presenting new evidence could increase that information’s impact on climate policymaking.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115998635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Vapor buoyancy increases clear-sky thermal emission","authors":"D. Yang, Seth D. Seidel","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acba39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acba39","url":null,"abstract":"The molar mass of H2O (18 g mol−1) is smaller than that of dry air (29 g mol−1), which makes humid air lighter than dry air with the same temperature and pressure. This vapor buoyancy (VB) effect has been traditionally considered small in large-scale climate dynamics and even neglected in some leading climate models. Here, using theory and aquaplanet simulations with prescribed surface temperatures, we show that VB increases tropospheric air temperature, and that the warmer atmosphere emits more clear-sky thermal radiation by about 2–4 W m−2 in the dry subtropical areas, a significant radiative effect. We then analyze Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures and realistic topography. The results show that VB can increase clear-sky thermal radiation by up to 5 W m−2 over the ocean and about 15 W m−2 over the subtropical arid land regions. The radiative effect over arid land is amplified by a substantial increase of surface temperature due to VB. Our results highlight the role of VB in regulating Earth’s energy balance both at the top of the atmosphere and at the land surface. This study points to new ways to improve climate models and their simulated energy balance.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"520 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116203962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Concurrence of blowing snow and polynya enhances arctic surface–atmosphere interaction: a modeling study with an extreme wind event in 2018","authors":"Jing Zhang, Xiangdong Zhang, J. Walsh, E. Roesler, B. Hillman","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b1","url":null,"abstract":"Snow, a critical element influencing surface energy/mass balance of the Arctic, can also drift in the air to complicate the surface–atmosphere interaction. This complexity can be further enhanced when the surface includes polynya. These processes, however, have not been well studied and are often unrepresented in climate and weather models. We address this by applying a snow/ice-enhanced version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to examine the impacts of blowing snow and polynya on the surface–atmosphere interaction during an extreme Arctic wind event in February 2018, when an unprecedented polynya occurred off the north coast of Greenland. The results indicate that blowing snow and the polynya contribute opposite signs to the changes of surface sensible/latent heat fluxes, but both cause enhanced downwelling longwave radiation. Process analysis shows that the thermodynamic moistening/cooling effects due to the blowing snow sublimation are amplified by increased surface winds, reduced temperature inversion, and upward wind anomaly associated with the polynya. Enhanced surface–atmosphere interaction over a polynya due to blowing snow sublimation can potentially sustain the continuing development of the polynya.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"91 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114000673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective","authors":"Paul A Nicknish, J. Chiang, A. Hu, W. Boos","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0","url":null,"abstract":"Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117281635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and macro-financial risks: financial policy responses for an orderly low-carbon transition","authors":"Paola D’Orazio","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acb790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb790","url":null,"abstract":"Climate-related financial policies (CRFPs) are needed to tame potential climate-related financial risks deriving from climate change and to finance the low-carbon transition. International engagement levels and CRFP adoption are currently too low to encourage an adequate low-carbon transition and protect the financial system from materializing climate risks. Therefore, greater global commitment is especially important as the COP27 will likely uphold the 1.5 ∘C targets while following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s advice to keep global warming below 2 ∘C. Despite the recent rapid proliferation of the literature on climate-related financial policymaking, some important knowledge gaps remain. Additional investigation, particularly in financial disclosure and stress tests, climate-aligned macro-prudential policies aimed at financial capital, climate data availability, and new research approaches, is required to help decision-makers achieve orderly and swift decarbonization.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130503483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}