{"title":"Risk Preferences and Efficiency of Household Portfolios","authors":"Zhaoyu Zhang, A. Capponi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3719559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3719559","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a novel approach to infer investors' risk preferences from their portfolio choices, and then use the implied risk preferences to measure the efficiency of investment portfolios. We analyze a dataset spanning a period of six years, consisting of end of month stock trading records, along with investors' demographic information and self-assessed financial knowledge. Unlike estimates of risk aversion based on the share of risky assets, our statistical analysis suggests that the implied risk aversion coefficient of an investor increases with her wealth and financial literacy. Portfolio diversification, Sharpe ratio, and expected portfolio returns correlate positively with the efficiency of the portfolio, whereas a higher standard deviation reduces the efficiency of the portfolio. We find that affluent and financially educated investors as well as those holding retirement related accounts hold more efficient portfolios.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115801328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pareto Distribution of Consumption Values as an Origin of Utility Functions over Wealth with Constant Elasticity","authors":"C. Furukawa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3694202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3694202","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a new theoretical foundation for utility functions over wealth with a constant elasticity. The key idea is that, when decision makers face an underlying distribution of consumption values for which they allocate their wealth to attain, then their utility over that wealth is shaped by that distribution. When the distribution has a Pareto tail, the implied utility function exhibits a constant elasticity when the wealth level is low. As its exponent approaches 1 (i.e. Zipf's Law), the utility function becomes approximately logarithmic. These results apply to many situations regardless of their contextual details thanks to statistical theories such as the generalized Central Limit Theorem. Besides this benchmark, most other standard distributions imply a decreasing elasticity, while some exceptions suggest an increasing elasticity. When applied to the labor supply elasticity, this approach predicts values of the compensated and uncompensated elasticity that are in accord with the evidence.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129737409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Georgij Alekseev, Safaa Amer, Manasa Gopal, Theresa Kuchler, JW Schneider, J. Stroebel, Nils Wernerfelt
{"title":"The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees","authors":"Georgij Alekseev, Safaa Amer, Manasa Gopal, Theresa Kuchler, JW Schneider, J. Stroebel, Nils Wernerfelt","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3692733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3692733","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze a large-scale survey of small business owners, managers, and employees in the United States to understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on those businesses. We explore two waves of the survey that were fielded on Facebook in April 2020 and December 2020. We document five facts about the impact of the pandemic on small businesses. (1) Larger firms, older firms, and male-owned firms were more likely to remain open during the early stages of the pandemic with many of these heterogeneities persisting through the end of 2020. (2) At businesses that remained open, concerns about demand shocks outweighed concerns about supply shocks though the relative importance of supply shocks grew over time. (3) In response to the pandemic, almost a quarter of the firms reduced their prices with price reductions concentrated among businesses facing financial constraints and demand shocks; almost no firms raised prices. (4) Only a quarter of small businesses had access to formal sources of financing at the start of the pandemic, and access to formal financing affected how firms responded to the pandemic. (5) Increased household responsibilities affected the ability of managers and employees to focus on their work, whereas increased business responsibilities impacted their ability to take care of their household members. This effect persisted through December 2020 and was particularly strong for women and parents of school-aged children. We discuss how these facts inform our understanding of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and how they can help design policy responses to similar shocks. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127075443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"'Big Bang' in Micro Consumption and Its Implications for Asset Pricing","authors":"Gaosheng Ju, Qi Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3683356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3683356","url":null,"abstract":"We establish some facts about micro consumption that open an avenue toward fully solving various consumption-based asset pricing puzzles. We find that top quantiles of consumption growth of the majority people are positively correlated with asset returns; at low quantiles the correlations for many people are negative. This partial negative correlation accounts for the low time-series correlation between asset returns and the growth rates of aggregated consumption, which is at the heart of many pricing anomalies. Our findings suggest that a large proportion of individuals’ preference toward consumption is risk-seeking at low consumption-growth states, while most individuals are risk-averse at high consumption-growth states. Both risk-seeking and risk-averse individuals demand a positive equity premium at their respective states. The equity premium puzzle arises from modeling risk-seeking behaviors as risk aversion, which partially generates a negative equity premium.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128455772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Social Capital Affect In-Role and Extra-Role Consumer Behavior in Pakistan: The Mediatory Role of Consumer-Company Identification and Brand Image","authors":"Nousheen Munawar, D. Siddiqui","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3682795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3682795","url":null,"abstract":"Consumers are no longer merely passive recipients of brand-related information, but rather, act as dynamic participants and co-creators of value, and of brand meaning. Hence the success of a brand is linked in its social capital making social capital and consumer behavior mutually reinforcing. The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of social capital on consumer attitudinal evaluations. We propose a theoretical framework thereby applying Sun & Lii (2018) mediation framework because of social capital. We hypothesized that social capital would enhance the brand image as well as consumer-company identification, these would in turn make favorable in-role and extra-role consumer Behavior towards the brand. Empirical validity was established by conducting a survey using a close-ended questionnaire. Data was collected from 425 respondents mainly students from Karachi and analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structured equation modeling. The results showed that social capital had a positive and significant relationship with consumer Extra role behavior, as well as with two mediators i.e. brand image and consumer company identification. Moreover, both mediators also have a significant impact on both in-role and extra-role behavior. However, the direct effect of social capital on in-role behavior is not substantiated. This research would help companies in gaining a competitive edge by giving a little more focus on social capital in order to enhance the image of their brands as well as their relationship with their customers.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114834684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Economics of Sharing Macro-longevity Risk","authors":"Dirk Broeders, R. Mehlkopf, Annick van Ool","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3311420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3311420","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Pension funds face macro-longevity risk or uncertainty about future mortality rates. We analyze macro-longevity risk sharing between cohorts in a pension scheme as a risk management tool. We show that the optimal risk-sharing rule and the welfare gains from risk sharing largely depend on the retirement age policy. In case of a fixed retirement age welfare gains from sharing macro-longevity risk measured on a 10-year horizon are between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of certainty equivalent consumption after retirement for each cohort. By contrast, if the retirement age is fully linked to changes in life expectancy, welfare gains are substantially higher. In this case the risk bearing capacity of workers is particularly large because their labor supply acts as a hedge against macro-longevity risk. As a result, workers absorb risk from retirees in the optimal risk-sharing rule, thereby increasing the welfare gain for each cohort up to 1.8 percent in the Lee–Carter mortality model and up to 2.9 percent in the Cairns-Blake-Dowd model.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133864901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Operations Management under Consumer Choice Models with Multiple Purchases","authors":"Shujie Luan, Ruxian Wang, Xiaolin Xu, Weili Xue","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3679699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3679699","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effects of multiple purchases that arise in the retailing of consumer goods, in which the product choice and consumer surplus depend not only on what to purchase but also on how many units to purchase. We incorporate the multiple purchases into consumer choice behavior and study a series of associated operational problems. Most of the discrete choice models in the current literature often assume that a customer chooses exactly one unit of a product. The assumption of “one purchase” is too restrictive in some practical scenarios (e.g., consumer goods) because customers often purchase multiple units of a product. We take the widely-used multinomial logit (MNL) model as a showcase and incorporate the effects of multiple purchases into the classic discrete choice model. In the new choice framework, consumers first form a consideration set, then select one product from consideration set and determine the purchase quantity of the selected product. In the absence of fixed cost, we characterize the structure of the optimal policy for the assortment optimization problem; whereas in the presence of product-differentiated fixed costs, the assortment problem becomes NP-complete, so we propose an efficient heuristic. We further develop a polynomial time algorithm for the assortment problem with identical fixed cost for each product. For the joint assortment and pricing problem, we show it can be decoupled into multiple multi-product pricing problems with different assortment sizes, each of which can be transformed into a single-variable problem. For the price competition problem, we characterize the existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium. We combine the alternating optimization algorithm with the expectation maximization algorithm to overcome the non-concavity and missing data issues in estimation. An empirical study on JD.com data shows that incorporating the effects of multiple purchases into discrete choice models can improve model fitting and prediction accuracy, while ignoring the effects of multiple purchases may lead substantial losses.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126907523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Alaei, A. Makhdoumi, Azarakhsh Malekian, S. Pekec
{"title":"Revenue-Sharing Allocation Strategies for Two-Sided Media Platforms: Pro-Rata versus User-Centric","authors":"S. Alaei, A. Makhdoumi, Azarakhsh Malekian, S. Pekec","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3645521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3645521","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a two-sided streaming service platform which generates revenues by charging users a subscription fee for unlimited access to the content, and compensates content providers (artists) through a revenue-sharing allocation rule. Platform users are heterogeneous in both their overall consumption and the distribution of their consumption over different artists. In addition to determining the platform optimal revenue allocation rule, we study two primary revenue allocation rules used by market-leading music streaming platforms — pro-rata and user centric. In the pro-rata rule artists are paid proportionally to their share in the overall streaming volume, while in the user-centric rule each user’s subscription fee is divided proportionally among artists based on the consumption of that user. We characterize when these two allocation rules can sustain a set of artists on the platform and compare them from both the platform and artists perspectives. In particular, we show that, despite the cross-subsidization between low and high streaming volume users, pro-rata rule can be preferred by both the platform and the artists. We further show that the platform's problem of selecting an optimal portfolio of artists is NP-complete. However, building on duality theory, we develop a polynomial time algorithm which outputs a set of artists so that the platform profit is within a single artist revenue from the optimal profit. Furthermore, for a platform that uses pro-rata or user-centric rules, by establishing connections to Knapsack problem, we develop a Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme (PTAS) for the optimal platform profit.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124945772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Thy Neighbor’s Misfortune: Peer Effect on Consumption","authors":"Sumit Agarwal, Wenlan Qian, Xin Zou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2780764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2780764","url":null,"abstract":"Using a large, representative sample of credit and debit card transactions in Singapore, this paper studies the consumption response of individuals whose same-building neighbors experienced personal bankruptcy. The unique bankruptcy rules in Singapore suggest liquidity shocks drive personal bankruptcy decisions, leading to a substantial drop in consumption for the bankrupt. Peers’ monthly card consumption decreases by 3.4 percent over the 1-year postbankruptcy period. There exists no consumption decrease among individuals in immediately adjacent buildings nor for consumers with diminished postevent social ties with the bankrupt. The findings imply a significant social multiplier effect of 2.8 times the original consumption shock. (JEL E21, G51, K35)","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122877491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shopping Activity at Warehouse Club Stores and Its Competitive and Network-Density Implications","authors":"S. Lim, E. Rabinovich, Sungho Park, M. Hwang","doi":"10.1111/poms.13226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13226","url":null,"abstract":"Warehouse club (WC) retailers have typically expanded to new markets using stand-alone stores, rather than pursuing dense store networks as other (non-WC) retailers have in the past. While this strategy generates operating efficiencies, it also imposes high travel costs on households to shop, which calls into question WC stores’ resilience to spatial competition from stores operating other formats. We examine this phenomenon by using data on households’ shopping activity across markets served by Costco Wholesale stores. Specifically, we evaluate these stores’ resilience to spatial competition by estimating the share of households’ expenditures relative to travel costs to shop at the stores and comparing this estimate with that for non-WC stores. Controlling for households’ travel costs across Costco and non-WC stores, we find that households’ share of expenditures at Costco stores exceeds the share at non-WC stores by 61%. This suggests that Costco stores have an advantage over non-WC stores when serving market areas with sparse store networks. Nevertheless, we also find that this advantage diminishes with the distance between Costco stores and households and that there is a finite distance beyond which this advantage disappears. We show that this distance (approximately 21 miles) is an important reference point for the evaluation of spatial competition between Costco stores and other stores and the examination of demand saturation at Costco stores.","PeriodicalId":431230,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Consumption","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114232144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}