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2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management最新文献

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Study on Applying Fault Tree Analysis Based on Fuzzy Reasoning in Risk Analysis of Construction Quality 基于模糊推理的故障树分析在工程质量风险分析中的应用研究
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.102
La Shu, Jianping Li, Min Qiu
{"title":"Study on Applying Fault Tree Analysis Based on Fuzzy Reasoning in Risk Analysis of Construction Quality","authors":"La Shu, Jianping Li, Min Qiu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.102","url":null,"abstract":"The paper describes the research the application of artificial intelligence technology in analyzing engineering quality and proposed a method which bases on the faulty tree analysis of the fuzzy logical system. In practice, the indeterminacy exists in the occurrence probability of basic event. Based on the previous research, this paper adopts the way of expressing the occurrence probability of basic event as fuzzy numeral. Meanwhile, focused on the uncertainty which exists in the causality between reason-event and result-event in faulty tree analysis, the author applies the fuzzy reasoning system in faulty tree analysis. Depends on the different reasoning relations between reason-event and result-event, author issues the different calculation and ensures the regularity of the reasoning calculation. The case study illustrates the feasibility of the analysis way issued in the paper which explores a new idea to risk analysis in engineering quality and in promote the reliability of the production.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122284739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Research on Relationship between Cycles of Electric Power and the Economy Growth in Chinese Typical Cities Based on Maximum Entropy Method 基于最大熵法的中国典型城市电力周期与经济增长关系研究
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.4
Yongxiu He, Dezhi Li, Li-fang Yang
{"title":"Research on Relationship between Cycles of Electric Power and the Economy Growth in Chinese Typical Cities Based on Maximum Entropy Method","authors":"Yongxiu He, Dezhi Li, Li-fang Yang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.4","url":null,"abstract":"The city is playing an important role in the social economic development. The research on influencing factors, formation mechanisms and problems in the development of cities, especially the relationship between urban electric power and economy growth, is significant to make urban development strategy and complete the urban electric power planning. In this paper, based on the maximum entropy method, it gives an elementary study and discussion of interaction between the electric power and the economy cycles in Chinese typical cities. The results show that the electricity consumption and economy growth has a long-term cointegration. Their cycles are becoming longer and their main cycle is 8-9 years. According to the results, there are some differences among the cities which require each city need to have itself measures to solve problems. The cycles of electric power and the economy growth should be considered in the city load forecasting and planning to improve the precision.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127979314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Contract Risk Recognition of Construction Project Based on Rough Set Theory and Fuzzy Support Vector Machine 基于粗糙集理论和模糊支持向量机的工程项目合同风险识别
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.78
Zehong Li, Weibo Liang
{"title":"The Contract Risk Recognition of Construction Project Based on Rough Set Theory and Fuzzy Support Vector Machine","authors":"Zehong Li, Weibo Liang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.78","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.78","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is to introduce a model. In the analysis of contract risk recognition, redundant variables in the samples spoil the performance of the SVM classifier and reduce the recognition accuracy. On the other hand, we usually canpsilat label one risk as absolutely good, or absolutely bad. In order to solve the problems mentioned above, this paper used rough sets (RS) as a preprocessor of SVM to select a subset of input variables and employ fuzzy support vector machine (FSVM), proposed in previous papers, to treat every sample as both positive and negative classes, but with different memberships. Additionally, the proposed RS-FSVM with membership based on affinity is tested on two different datasets. Then we compared the accuracies of proposed RS-FSVM model with other three models. Especially, in application of the proposed method, training sets are selected by increasing proportion. Experimental results showed that the RS-SVM model performed the best recognition accuracy and generalization, implying that the hybrid of RS with fuzzy SVM model can serve as a promising alternative for recognizing contract risk.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131240863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Study on the Harmonious Operation of Logistics Finance Management of Supply Chain in Ports-Hinterland Based on System Dynamics 基于系统动力学的港口腹地供应链物流财务管理协调运行研究
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.57
Yang Wang, Xingyu Ma, Yuan-zhi Chen
{"title":"Study on the Harmonious Operation of Logistics Finance Management of Supply Chain in Ports-Hinterland Based on System Dynamics","authors":"Yang Wang, Xingyu Ma, Yuan-zhi Chen","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.57","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract-Taking China's ports-hinterland logistics system as an example, the paper discusses the harmonious operation of logistics finance management of supply chain which is composed of the functional entity activities such as transportation, warehousing, packaging, circulation and information transmission, as well as the goods movement of all sectors of the logistics process. The logistics finance management is complex operating system with dynamics features, which is established on the basis of a \"virtual organization\" made up by nodes in supply chain. In order to provide a new research perspective on the coordination development of ports-hinterland logistics system, a dynamics model of logistics finance management of supply chain was set up based on the theory of system dynamics.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"63 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132477735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Comprehensive Post-Evaluation of Rural Electric Network Reformation Based on Fuzzy Interval Number AHP 基于模糊区间数AHP的农村电网改造综合后评价
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.86
Liu Cheng-ren
{"title":"Comprehensive Post-Evaluation of Rural Electric Network Reformation Based on Fuzzy Interval Number AHP","authors":"Liu Cheng-ren","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.86","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.86","url":null,"abstract":"A comprehensive and objective post-evaluation of rural electric network reformation (RENR) will bring a scientific suggestion for decision-making with the financing is shortage. In this paper, on the base of analyzing methods used in post-evaluation before, a new model, which integrated with fuzzy theory, interval number and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), is proposed. Multi-factors and information of quantization and non-quantization are considered in this model. The human influence is reduced by making fuzzy evaluation weights through interval number and AHP, which is useful in practice. Finally, a demonstration of post-evaluation of RENR is given. The result shows that this model is feasible and more objective compared with others.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"57 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113960309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Research on Determination Method of Financing Lease Margin Money Based on Default Risk 基于违约风险的融资租赁保证金确定方法研究
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.105
Jiang Wei, Huang Wen-jie
{"title":"Research on Determination Method of Financing Lease Margin Money Based on Default Risk","authors":"Jiang Wei, Huang Wen-jie","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.105","url":null,"abstract":"This article firstly analyzes the lessor's default risk and necessity of reasonably determining margin money in financing lease, then expounds the method to measure default risk by probability of default, and establishes the model to calculate net profit and model to calculate margin money based on default risk. Finally, a numerical example is used to test the model. The results show that the application of the model can quantify default risk into the lessor's net profit, so as to make it possible to calculate the loss at different levels of default risk, which will provide an effective basis of decision-making for the lessor to quantitatively and reasonably determine margin money.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115770179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Research on Evaluation System for Project Success 项目成功评价体系研究
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.79
Bin Yan, R. Jia, Yan Bin, Wang Zhuofu
{"title":"Research on Evaluation System for Project Success","authors":"Bin Yan, R. Jia, Yan Bin, Wang Zhuofu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.79","url":null,"abstract":"Research on project success is an eternal issue in project management. It has very important meaning in current social and economical innovation in China. Establishment of reasonable evaluation system can not only deepen cognition of the partner, but also used as reference to the establishment of controlling system of the subsequent project. This paper established longitudinal and lateral evaluation system based on DEA and three-hierarchy analysis of effect. Results indicated that the evaluation value could be divided into six regions and the regions could be generalized as four types, they are optimization region, permissible region, improvement needed region and impermissible regions. Improvement directions were pointed out aim to some regions.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121320354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empirical Research of Liquidity Risk Based on China's Stock Market 基于中国股票市场的流动性风险实证研究
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.73
Yuanhui Li
{"title":"Empirical Research of Liquidity Risk Based on China's Stock Market","authors":"Yuanhui Li","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.73","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.73","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims at providing a realistic method to measure liquidity risk of China's stock market and data base for China's stock market liquidity risk management. The construction of research model is based on VaR method and the analysis method is adopted to calculate the VaR. The total sample is 121 shares, which are selected according to industry and region. Empirical research results show that China's stock market stocks have uneven level of liquidity risk as well as strong industries, regions and market differences. Finally this paper proposes some practical policy recommendations for liquidity risk management.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115996043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Gray Neural Network Forecasting Model of Power Load Based on Ant Colony Algorithm Method 基于蚁群算法的灰色神经网络电力负荷预测模型
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.30
D. Niu, Jia-liang Lv, Jian-rong Jia
{"title":"Gray Neural Network Forecasting Model of Power Load Based on Ant Colony Algorithm Method","authors":"D. Niu, Jia-liang Lv, Jian-rong Jia","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.30","url":null,"abstract":"Because power loads are influenced by various factors, and the changes of power load presents are complicate, the traditional forecasting methods are always not satisfied. According to the random-increase and non-linearity fluctuation of residual series, gray neural network forecasting can reflect the increase character and non-linearity relationship. This paper using the improved ACO method as the basis of combination weight making, so as to achieve the goal of optimizing the whole forecasting precision and find the combination weight that can exhibit the high consistency and high precision for the series values, finally the whole forecasting accuracy can be improved obviously. Through the calculation of the power loads in a province which is compared with other algorithms, the results prove that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of power load forecasting.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121819573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Research on the Electricity Customer Credit Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Expected Value Decision-making Method Modified by Least Squares Support Vector Machine 基于最小二乘支持向量机修正模糊期望值决策方法的电力客户信用评价研究
2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management Pub Date : 2008-11-04 DOI: 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.109
Mian Xing
{"title":"Research on the Electricity Customer Credit Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Expected Value Decision-making Method Modified by Least Squares Support Vector Machine","authors":"Mian Xing","doi":"10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.109","url":null,"abstract":"In view of electricity customer credit evaluation lacking of precise index system and hardly quantifying subjective factors and experience factors, fuzzy expected value decision-making method modified by least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is presented. Firstly, electricity customer credit evaluation index system is constructed; the indices values and subjective experiences values are given in the form of triangular fuzzy numbers. Then credit expected values are resulted by fuzzy expected value decision-making method. Finally, LS-SVM based on the principle of structural risk minimization modifies the expected values. The experiment shows that the credit grades after the modification suit to the original credit grades enacted by power supply enterprises and are more practicable.","PeriodicalId":430801,"journal":{"name":"2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131284141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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