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Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle Inflation Matter? 金融预期与家庭消费:中等通胀重要吗?
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3558322
Sarah Brown, M. Harris, Christopher Spencer, K. Taylor
{"title":"Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle Inflation Matter?","authors":"Sarah Brown, M. Harris, Christopher Spencer, K. Taylor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3558322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3558322","url":null,"abstract":"Using British panel data, we explore the finding that households often expect their financial position to remain unchanged compared to other alternatives, using a gener- alised middle inflated ordered probit (GMIOP ) model. In doing so we account for the tendency of individuals to choose 'neutral' responses when faced with attitudinal and opinion-based questions, which are a common feature of survey data. Our empirical analysis strongly supports the use of a GMIOP model to account for this response pattern. Expectations indices based on competing discrete choice models are then ex- ploited to explore the role that financial expectations play in driving the consumption of different types of durable goods and the amount of expenditure undertaken. Whilst financial optimism is significantly associated with consumption, indices which fail to take into account middle-inflation are found to overestimate the impact of financial expectations.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116981386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic Incentives in Retirement Earnings-Replacement Benefits 退休收入的动态激励——替代福利
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2022-05-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3542651
Andrés Dean, Sebastián Fleitas, M. Zerpa
{"title":"Dynamic Incentives in Retirement Earnings-Replacement Benefits","authors":"Andrés Dean, Sebastián Fleitas, M. Zerpa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3542651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542651","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We analyze dynamic incentives in pension systems created by the use of a small set of final years of earnings to compute benefits. Using social security records and household surveys from Uruguay, we show that self-employed workers and some employees of small firms respond to these incentives by increasing reported earnings in the benefit calculation window. We find evidence that suggests that these responses are explained by changes in earnings reporting and not in total earnings or labor supply. Backof-the-envelope calculations indicate that this behavior increases the cost of pensions by about 0.2% of the GDP.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130352885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumers and Guaranteed Asset Protection (“GAP Protection”) on Vehicle Loans and Sales-Financing Contracts: A First Look 汽车贷款和销售融资合同中的消费者和担保资产保护(“GAP保护”):第一眼
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3933304
T. Durkin, Gregory E. Elliehausen, Thomas W. Miller
{"title":"Consumers and Guaranteed Asset Protection (“GAP Protection”) on Vehicle Loans and Sales-Financing Contracts: A First Look","authors":"T. Durkin, Gregory E. Elliehausen, Thomas W. Miller","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3933304","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3933304","url":null,"abstract":"Guaranteed Asset Protection (GAP) shields purchasers from financial risks of losses exceeding insured collateral values if vehicles become total losses. Yet surprisingly little is known about the sales of this voluntary product, or consumers’ attitudes toward it. In this study, we report the results of a representative national survey conducted by the Survey Research Center (SRC) of the University of Michigan. The SRC interviewed 1,206 individuals in the fall of 2020. This survey shows consumers purchased GAP about 39 percent of financed vehicle transactions. Consumers purchase GAP more often when there is a heightened financial risk: larger credit amounts, longer loan maturities, and lower income levels. More than 90 percent of GAP purchasers report that buying GAP is a good idea and that they would buy it again. Only about 1 percent of surveyed purchasers indicate dissatisfaction with their choice. A multivariate model of GAP purchase suggests that consumers’ financial situation and terms of the transaction are more important that risk aversion by itself.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134000607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Redtape, Greenleaf: Creditor Behavior Under Costly Collateral Enforcement 繁文缛节，格林利夫:代价高昂的抵押品强制执行下的债权人行为
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-09-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3928964
Taha Ahsin
{"title":"Redtape, Greenleaf: Creditor Behavior Under Costly Collateral Enforcement","authors":"Taha Ahsin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3928964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3928964","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how creditors behave under costly collateral enforcement. I exploit quasi-experimental variation in foreclosure costs generated from Maine's 2014 Greenleaf judgement. I estimate that that the foreclosure rate dropped by over 23%. Furthermore, I find that borrowers did not forgo mortgage repayment when provided the opportunity to repay. Instead, the self-cure rate increased by 30%. Finally, instead of modifying mortgages or negotiating a short sale, I find that 46% of the loans that forgo foreclosure are ultimately sold off by creditors. I show that this secondary market breaks down when foreclosure costs become prohibitively expensive, at which point servicers provide forbearance to a subset of loans to prevent worsening delinquency.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116334942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Benchmarking Forecast Approaches for Mortgage Credit Risk for Forward Periods 远期按揭信贷风险的基准预测方法
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3924049
T. M. Luong, Harald Scheule
{"title":"Benchmarking Forecast Approaches for Mortgage Credit Risk for Forward Periods","authors":"T. M. Luong, Harald Scheule","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3924049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3924049","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores alternative forecast approaches for mortgage credit risk for forward periods of up to seven years. Using data from US prime mortgage loans from 2000 to 2016, we find that common borrower, loan contract and external features are significant in explaining credit risk over forward periods. Time variation may come through the ageing and forward channel. We develop a hybrid model for predicting default probabilities that combines both channels and outperforms standalone alternatives. This higher precision results in more accurate economic capital, IFRS 9/CECL loan loss provisioning and mortgage pricing, and hence, a more efficient and resilient resource allocation in commercial banks.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124658751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
The Impact of Payday Lending on Crimes 发薪日贷款对犯罪的影响
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3831654
Chen Shen
{"title":"The Impact of Payday Lending on Crimes","authors":"Chen Shen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3831654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3831654","url":null,"abstract":"Police departments located in states allowing payday lending report 14.34% more property crimes than the police departments located in states not allowing payday lending. I also find that the police departments located in counties bordering with states allowing payday lending report more property crimes. Those results are driven by the financial pressure induced by payday loans. Furthermore, the impact of payday lending concentrates in areas with a higher proportion of the minority population.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124808339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FinTech, Financial Inclusion, and Household Portfolio Choice: Evidence from China Household Finance Survey 金融科技、普惠金融与家庭投资组合选择:来自中国家庭金融调查的证据
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3909717
Lihui Tian, Hanyu Zheng, Dekai Tan
{"title":"FinTech, Financial Inclusion, and Household Portfolio Choice: Evidence from China Household Finance Survey","authors":"Lihui Tian, Hanyu Zheng, Dekai Tan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3909717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3909717","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the China Household Finance Survey in 2017, using different measurements of FinTech, this paper finds that FinTech can promote the ratio of household risky asset holdings significantly. However, this positive effect is not financially inclusive, since it is more obvious among urban households, high-income households and households headed by younger. In terms of mechanism analysis, this paper finds that FinTech increases the ratio of household risky asset holdings through three ways: improving financial literacy, lowering the investment threshold, and promoting social interaction. Further, this paper finds that the reason why FinTech is not financial inclusive is that rural households, low-income households, and households headed by older are not good at using FinTech to improve financial literacy and lower their investment threshold. Our conclusion is still robust after using the average residential electricity consumption as the instrumental variable. This paper enriches the research on household portfolio choice and provides policy suggestions for the future promotion of financial inclusion with FinTech.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122601364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
College student behavior and student loan default 大学生行为与学生贷款违约
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-08-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3287952
Jess Cornaggia, K. Cornaggia, Han Xia
{"title":"College student behavior and student loan default","authors":"Jess Cornaggia, K. Cornaggia, Han Xia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3287952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3287952","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that perseverant behavior during college predicts default risk later in life. Using college transcripts, we find that students who voluntarily repeat courses after performing poorly are 10% less likely to default than peers who give up after comparably poor performance in the same courses at the same institutions. Conversely, students who quit courses mid-semester are more likely to default than their perseverant peers. Utilizing post-college financial distress, second differences, and proof by contradiction, we show that factors potentially confounding the observed behavior, such as students’ private information about human capital value, are unlikely to explain our results.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"176 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122870937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Retail Investor Trade and the Pricing of Earnings 散户交易与收益定价
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-08-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3833565
Jeremy Michels
{"title":"Retail Investor Trade and the Pricing of Earnings","authors":"Jeremy Michels","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3833565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3833565","url":null,"abstract":"New technologies have reduced trading costs for retail investors. In this paper, I examine how the corresponding surge in retail investor trade is associated with the pricing of earnings. I measure retail investor trade with the number of Robinhood users holding a firm’s shares. I find increases in these relatively inexperienced investors are associated with a more positive market response to both positive and negative earnings surprises. This manifests in a more pronounced overall market response per unit of earnings surprise for positive earnings surprises but a muted market response for negative earnings surprises. Further intraday analysis suggests that retail investors respond to stock returns following the earnings announcement instead of the earnings news itself. Finally, in smaller firms and firms that are costly to sell short, and for both the most positive and negative earnings surprises, returns drift upward following the earnings announcement when retail trade is high.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"54 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120902480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Unsecured Personal Loans | Drivers of Performance 无担保个人贷款:业绩驱动因素
Household Finance eJournal Pub Date : 2021-08-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3902255
Anshul Shekhon
{"title":"Unsecured Personal Loans | Drivers of Performance","authors":"Anshul Shekhon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3902255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3902255","url":null,"abstract":"With high coupon rates, unsecured personal loans promise attractive returns to investors. However, investors also bear the risk of complete loss in the event of default. In our experience, the most successful investors rely on a deep understanding of the product and the nuances in its underwriting. While platforms typically assign credit ratings to the loans they originate, savvy investors go a step further and do their own “deep-dive” analytics. In this article, we look into the key drivers of performance in this asset class, their relative contributions, and how they interplay with other important factors.","PeriodicalId":428959,"journal":{"name":"Household Finance eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120936722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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