{"title":"Happiness Adaptation to Income Beyond \"Basic Needs\"","authors":"R. Di Tella, Robert J. MacCulloch","doi":"10.3386/W14539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W14539","url":null,"abstract":"We test for whether, once \"basic needs\" are satisfied, there is happiness adaptation to further gains in income using three data sets. Individual German Panel Data from 1985-2000, and data on the well-being of over 600,000 people in a panel of European countries from 1975-2002, shows different patterns of adaptation to income across the rich and poor. We find evidence that for wealthy Germans, and for the rich half of European nations, higher levels of per capita income don't buy greater happiness. The reason appears to be adaptation. However even for the rich half of European nations such habituation may take over 5 years so the happiness gains that they experience, whilst not permanent, can still be relatively long-lasting. Finally we study a cross section of nations in 2005 from the World Gallup Poll and find that the past 45 years of economic growth (from 1960-2005) in the rich half of nations has not brought happiness gains above those that were already in place once the 1960s standard of living had been achieved. However in the poorest half of nations we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the happiness gains they have experienced from the past 45 years of growth have been the same as the gains that they experienced from growth prior to the 1960s.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"227 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113984949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Market Reactions to the Passage of the Financial Holding Company Act in Taiwan","authors":"Jane-Sue Wang, Jing-Twen Chen, Pin-Huang Chou","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00412.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00412.x","url":null,"abstract":"We examine how financial institutions react to various events surrounding the passage of Taiwan's Financial Holding Company Act in June 2001. Empirical results indicate that the financial system experiences significant abnormal returns along the legislative process. Smaller firms have significantly higher abnormal returns, thus lending no support for the hypothesis that larger firms benefit more from the Act. Further analysis shows that the significance of market value is replaced by a significant securities industry effect, thereby consistent with the observation that Taiwan's securities firms are generally smaller in market values and are potential target firms for financial holding companies. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"2014 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129960426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Margining and the Stability of the Banking Sector","authors":"Rajna Gibson, Carsten Murawski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1313116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1313116","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the effects of margining, a widely-used mechanism to attach collateral to derivatives contracts, on derivatives’ trading volume, default risk, and on the welfare in the banking sector. First, we develop a stylized banking sector equilibrium model to derive a set of testable hypotheses. Subsequently, we test these hypotheses with a simulation model that captures some of the essential characteristics of over-the-counter derivatives markets. Contrarily to the common belief that margining always reduces default risk, we find that there exist situations in which margining increases default risk, reduces aggregate derivatives’ trading volume, and has an ambiguous effect on welfare in the banking sector. The negative effects of margining are exacerbated during periods of market stress when margin rates are high and collateral is scarce. We also find that central counterparties only lift some of the inefficiencies caused by margining.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"29 17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124240739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Likelihood Based Testing for No Fractional Cointegration","authors":"K. Lasak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1266675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1266675","url":null,"abstract":"We consider two likelihood ratio tests, so-called maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, for the null of no cointegration when fractional cointegration is allowed under the alternative, which is a first step to generalize the so-called Johansen's procedure to the fractional cointegration case. The standard cointegration analysis only considers the assumption that deviations from equilibrium can be integrated of order zero, which is very restrictive in many cases and may imply an important loss of power in the fractional case. We consider the alternative hypotheses with equilibrium deviations that can be mean reverting with order of integration possibly greater than zero. Moreover, the degree of fractional cointegration is not assumed to be known, and the asymptotic null distribution of both tests is found when considering an interval of possible values. The power of the proposed tests under fractional alternatives and size accuracy provided by the asymptotic distribution in finite samples are investigated.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127457810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bafflegab Pays","authors":"J. Armstrong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1181505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1181505","url":null,"abstract":"\"If you can't convince them, confuse them.\" Simply put, this is the advice that J. Scott Armstrong, a marketing professor at the Wharton School, coolly gives his fellow academics these days. It is based on his studies confirming what he calls the Dr. Fox hypothesis: \"An unintelligible communication from a legitimate source in the recipient's area of expertise will increase the recipient's rating of the author's competence.\"","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128314845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Strategic Manipulation of Empirical Tests","authors":"W. Olszewski, Alvaro Sandroni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1133118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1133118","url":null,"abstract":"Theories can be produced by experts seeking a reputation for having knowledge. Hence, a tester could anticipate that theories may have been strategically produced by uninformed experts who want to pass an empirical test. \u0000 \u0000We show that, with no restriction on the domain of permissible theories, strategic experts cannot be discredited for an arbitrary but given number of periods, no matter which test is used (provided that the test does not reject the actual data-generating process). \u0000 \u0000Natural ways around this impossibility result include (1) assuming that unbounded data sets are available and (2) restricting the domain of permissible theories (opening the possibility that the actual data-generating process is rejected out-of-hand). In both cases, it is possible to dismiss strategic experts but only to a limited extent. These results show significant limits on what data can accomplish when experts produce theories strategically.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116917751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nonparametric Estimation and Misspecification Testing of Diffusion Models","authors":"Dennis Kristensen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1148674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1148674","url":null,"abstract":"We propose novel misspecification tests of semiparametric and fully parametric univariate diffusion models based on the estimators developed in Kristensen (Journal of Econometrics, 2010). We first demonstrate that given a preliminary estimator of either the drift or the diffusion term in a diffusion model, nonparametric kernel estimators of the remaining term can be obtained. We then propose misspecification tests of semparametric and fully parametric diffusion models that compare estimators of the transition density under the relevant null and alternative. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators and tests under the null are derived, and the power properties are analyzed by considering contiguous alternatives. Test directly comparing the drift and diffusion estimators under the relevant null and alternative are also analyzed. Markov Bootstrap versions of the test statistics are proposed to improve on the finite-sample approximations. The finite sample properties of the estimators are examined in a simulation study.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131039253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Explosive Behavior in the 1990s' NASDAQ: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?","authors":"P. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00625.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00625.x","url":null,"abstract":"A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. Some asymptotic properties of the Evans (1991) model of periodically collapsing bubbles are analyzed and the paper develops a new model in which bubble duration depends on the strength of the cognitive bias underlying herd behavior in the market. The paper also explores alternative propagating mechanisms for explosive behavior based on economic fundamentals under time varying discount rates. An empirical application to the Nasdaq stock price index in the 1990s provides confirmation of explosiveness and date-stamps the origination of financial exuberance to June 1995, prior to the famous remark in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan about irrational exuberance in financial markets, thereby giving the remark empirical content.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117970106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unions and Profitability: A Meta-Analysis","authors":"Hristos Doucouliagos, P. Laroche","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1014306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1014306","url":null,"abstract":"The effect of unions on profits continues to be an unresolved empirical issue. In this paper, meta-regression analysis is applied to the population of 45 econometric studies that report 532 estimates of the direct effect of unions on profits. We show that unions have a significant negative effect on profits, and that this effect is larger in the US. Separate meta-regression analysis is used to identify the sources of union-profit effects. Meta-analysis of 239 estimates of unions interacted with the hypothesized sources of union rents reveals that neither the market power nor the quasi-rent appropriation theories are supported by the extant studies. Analysis of the between-study heterogeneity reveals that unions have an indirect effect on factor accumulation – they depress physical capital formation and stimulate advertising expenditure. There is a clear need for additional primary research in this area.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124750183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Adaptive Specification Test For Semiparametric Models","authors":"J. Rodríguez-Póo, S. Sperlich, P. Vieu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1010933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1010933","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces a new test of a semiparametric model of a conditional density function against a fully nonparametric alternative. This test is motivated by the fact that many important econometric models need to be estimated through maximum likelihood type procedures, e.g. semiparametric limited dependent variable models. This specification is also important for prediction purposes. Our test statistic combines the methodology of goodness of fit tests and nonparametric methods and the specific difficulty we focus here comes from the fact that we consider a semiparametric null hypothesis and the test statistic depends on a bandwidth parameter that needs to be estimated from the data. In order to handle the previous difficulties we introduce a data adaptive testing procedure that enables us to select the bandwidth parameter in such a way that it maximizes the power of the test. It is also shown that this procedure handles properly the bias problem generated by the introduction of a semiparametric model under the null. The distribution of the standarized test statistic is approximated under the null by both bootstrap and subsampling methods and its power is studied against local alternatives to the null hypothesis. We discuss practical issues for the application statistics and illustrate in an intensive monte carlo study both the feasibility and the performance of the procedure in finite samples of moderate size.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127515978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}