无分数协整的似然检验

K. Lasak
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引用次数: 40

摘要

我们考虑了两个似然比检验,即所谓的最大特征值检验和迹检验,当在可选的情况下允许分数协整时,对于无协整的零,这是将所谓的约翰森程序推广到分数协整情况的第一步。标准的协整分析只考虑平衡偏差可以0阶积分的假设,这在许多情况下是非常限制的,并且在分数情况下可能意味着重要的功率损失。我们考虑具有均衡偏差的可选假设,这些均衡偏差可以均值回归,且积分阶可能大于零。此外,分数协整的程度不假设是已知的,并且在考虑可能值的区间时,发现两个检验的渐近零分布。研究了在有限样本的渐近分布条件下,所提出的检验方法在分数选择条件下的有效性和尺寸精度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Likelihood Based Testing for No Fractional Cointegration
We consider two likelihood ratio tests, so-called maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, for the null of no cointegration when fractional cointegration is allowed under the alternative, which is a first step to generalize the so-called Johansen's procedure to the fractional cointegration case. The standard cointegration analysis only considers the assumption that deviations from equilibrium can be integrated of order zero, which is very restrictive in many cases and may imply an important loss of power in the fractional case. We consider the alternative hypotheses with equilibrium deviations that can be mean reverting with order of integration possibly greater than zero. Moreover, the degree of fractional cointegration is not assumed to be known, and the asymptotic null distribution of both tests is found when considering an interval of possible values. The power of the proposed tests under fractional alternatives and size accuracy provided by the asymptotic distribution in finite samples are investigated.
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