Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development最新文献

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Forecasting China-Africa economic integration using Wavelet-ARIMA hybrid approach 基于小波- arima混合方法预测中非经济一体化
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2647
Marvellous Ngundu, Reon Matemane
{"title":"Forecasting China-Africa economic integration using Wavelet-ARIMA hybrid approach","authors":"Marvellous Ngundu, Reon Matemane","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2647","url":null,"abstract":"China-Africa economic integration generally looks lucid, as evidenced by rising bilateral trade, as well as Chinese FDI, aid, and debt financing for infrastructure development in Africa. The engagement, however, appears to be strategically channeled to benefit China’s resource endowment strategy. First, Chinese FDI in Africa is primarily resource-seeking, with minimum manufacturing value addition. Second, China has successfully replicated the Angola model in other resource-rich African countries, and most infrastructure loans-for-natural resources barter deals are said to be undervalued. There is also a resource-backed loan arrangement in place, in which default Chinese loans are repaid in natural resources. Third, while China claims that its financial aid is critical to Africa’s growth and development processes, a significant portion of the aid is spent on non-development projects such as building parliaments and government buildings. This lend credence to the notion that China uses aid to gain diplomatic recognition from African leaders, with resource-rich and/or institutionally unstable countries being the most targeted. The preceding arguments support why Africa’s exports to China dominate other China’s financial flows to Africa, and consist mainly of natural resources. Accordingly, this study aims to forecast China-Africa economic integration through the lens of China’s demand for natural resources and Africa’s demand for capital, both of which are reflected in Africa’s exports to China. The study used a MODWT-ARIMA hybrid forecasting technique to account for the short period of available China-Africa bilateral trade dataset (1992–2021), and found that Africa’s exports to China are likely to decline from US$ 119.20 billion in 2022 to US$ 13.68 billion in 2026 on average. This finding coincides with a period in which Chinese demand for Africa’s natural resources is expected to decline.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135092396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How are companies involved in the construction of the trans Sumatra toll road, in Indonesia? Role analysis and development policy 参与印尼跨苏门答腊收费公路建设的公司是如何运作的?角色分析和发展政策
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2588
Vera Finidia Indah, Budiman Rusli, Rita Myrna, Zaidan Nawawi
{"title":"How are companies involved in the construction of the trans Sumatra toll road, in Indonesia? Role analysis and development policy","authors":"Vera Finidia Indah, Budiman Rusli, Rita Myrna, Zaidan Nawawi","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2588","url":null,"abstract":"Toll road infrastructure development is one of the development priorities of the government of Indonesia a developed country. To develop toll road infrastructure to run smoothly, it is necessary to involve the government and the private sector. This research aims to analyze the role of the government and land acquisition constraints in the construction of the trans Sumatra toll road. This research uses a qualitative-explorative method to explore the research topic. Determination of the research topic is done by using biblioshiny application analysis. Then the data is collected from observation, documents from the website, and applicable literature. The data collected was then analyzed using Nvivo 12 Pro Software and Vensim PLE X64 Software to provide accurate and systematic visualization and description. The results of this study found that the trans Sumatra toll road construction project is a national development project. Then the cooperation relationship carried out by the government in the construction of the trans Sumatra toll road is regulated through policies that run in 2014–Present. The companies involved in accelerating the construction of the trans-Sumatra toll road are PT Hutama Karya and PT Waskita Sriwijaya Tol. Another finding in this study is that there are still toll road sections that have not operated and have been stopped due to customary land acquisition issues.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135138111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of big data analytics in project success: Mediating role of intellectual capital and knowledge sharing 大数据分析对项目成功的影响:智力资本和知识共享的中介作用
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2583
Diego Norena-Chavez, Eleftherios Thalassinos
{"title":"Impact of big data analytics in project success: Mediating role of intellectual capital and knowledge sharing","authors":"Diego Norena-Chavez, Eleftherios Thalassinos","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2583","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This study empirically investigates the effect of big data analytics (BDA) on project success (PS). Additionally, in this study, the investigation includes an examination of how intellectual capital (IC) and (KS) act as mediators in the correlation between BDA and KS. Lastly, a connection between entrepreneurial leadership (EL) and BDA is also explored. Design/Methodology- Using a sample of 422 senior-level employees from the IT sector in Peru. The partial least squares structural equation modeling technique tested the hypothesized relationships. Findings- According to the findings, the relationship between BDA and PS is mediated by structural capital (SC) and relational capital (RC), and BDA demonstrates a positive and noteworthy correlation with PS. Furthermore, EL is positively associated with BDA in a significant manner. Practical implications- The finding of this study reinforce the corporate experience of BDA and suggest how senior levels of the IT sector can promote SC, RC, and EL. Originality/Value- This study is one of the first to consider big data analytics as an important antecedent of project success. With little or no research on the interrelationship of big data analytics, intellectual capital and knowledge sharing the study contributes by investigating the mediating role of intellectual capital and knowledge sharing on the relationship between big data analytics and project success.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135191997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development strategies for reducing infant mortality: A focus on healthcare infrastructure and policy in emerging Asian countries 降低婴儿死亡率的发展战略:关注亚洲新兴国家的保健基础设施和政策
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2585
Sriyanto Sriyanto, Luqman Khalil, Imran Naseem, Abdelmohsen A. Nassani, Rima H. Binsaeed, Khalid Zaman, Hailan Salamun, Mohamed Haffar
{"title":"Development strategies for reducing infant mortality: A focus on healthcare infrastructure and policy in emerging Asian countries","authors":"Sriyanto Sriyanto, Luqman Khalil, Imran Naseem, Abdelmohsen A. Nassani, Rima H. Binsaeed, Khalid Zaman, Hailan Salamun, Mohamed Haffar","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2585","url":null,"abstract":"The journey towards better healthcare sustainability in Asian nations demands a comprehensive investigation into the impact of urban governance, poverty, and female literacy on infant mortality rates. This study undertakes a rigorous exploration of these key factors to pave the way for evidence-based policy interventions, utilizing data from a panel of six selected Asian countries: Pakistan, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, spanning the years 2001 to 2020. The findings reveal that adequate sanitation facilities, higher female literacy rates, and sustained economic growth contribute to a reduction in infant mortality. Conversely, increased poverty levels and limited women’s autonomy exacerbate the infant mortality rates observed in these countries. The Granger causality analysis validates the reciprocal relationship between urban sanitation (and poverty) and infant mortality rates. Furthermore, the study establishes a causal relationship where female literacy rates Granger-cause infant mortality rates, and conversely, infant mortality rates Granger-cause women’s autonomy in these countries. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that sustained economic growth, improved female literacy rates, and enhanced women’s empowerment will likely impact infant mortality rates in the coming decade. Consequently, in low-income regions where numerous children face potentially hazardous circumstances, it is imperative to allocate resources towards establishing and maintaining accessible fundamental knowledge regarding sanitation services, as this will aid in reducing infant mortality rates.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135476328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Organisational culture as a prerequisite for human resource management in public administration and its change in the time of COVID-19 组织文化作为公共行政人力资源管理的前提及其在COVID-19时代的变化
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2277
Marie Mikusova, Ivona Vrdoljak-Raguz, Terezie Krestova, Nadezda Klabusayova
{"title":"Organisational culture as a prerequisite for human resource management in public administration and its change in the time of COVID-19","authors":"Marie Mikusova, Ivona Vrdoljak-Raguz, Terezie Krestova, Nadezda Klabusayova","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2277","url":null,"abstract":"Organisational culture stands as a fundamental prerequisite for the efficacious operation of any given organisation. The primary aim of this study is to discern potential alterations within the dimensions of organisational culture across the pre-COVID-19, contemporary, and favoured paradigms within the realm of public administration. The data set was obtained from a cohort of 1189 officials in the Czech Republic. The Organisational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI) was deployed for the purposes of conducting an online survey. The dominance of the clan archetype across all examined time frames has been corroborated. In addition, a statistically significant manifestation of these dimensions has been determined. In relation to pertinent variables, specifically gender, age, tenure, manager gender, and the dimensions typifying organisational culture, no statistically significant correlations have emerged. Respondents have not reported a sense of work-life imbalance in the aftermath of the pandemic. In summary, it is deduced that the pandemic has not exerted a drastic influence on the metamorphosis of organisational culture within the ambit of public administration. This study provides invaluable information on the repercussions of the pandemic within a sphere that, as an intangible constituent, often goes under-recognised. Mastery of the positioning of dimensions across diverse archetypes is of paramount significance for managers, as it can provide guidance in the cultivation of an apt organisational culture.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135818957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enlightenment of foreign citizens’ online political participation on China—Based on the case study of America, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan 外国公民网络政治参与对中国的启示——以美国、新加坡、韩国和日本为例
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2527
Haisheng Hu, Samuel Amponsah Odei
{"title":"Enlightenment of foreign citizens’ online political participation on China—Based on the case study of America, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan","authors":"Haisheng Hu, Samuel Amponsah Odei","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2527","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid progress of information technology has made public online participation in policy formulation an inevitable product of modern government reshaping and reconstruction. However, compared with developed countries, citizens’ online participation in policy formulation in China started relatively late. Thus, in order to explore an effective and efficient method for Chinese citizens’ participation in policy formulation, this research made a brief review of the experiences from the typical developed country of United States of America at first, followed by some other developed countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and Japan in Asia with similar situations. Still, combined with the current situation of the China itself into consideration, this research further proposes targeted recommendations. It is expected that the findings in this research could provide some references for the Chinese government to form more effective and efficient theoretical frameworks targeted at the future development trends of the Chinese society and accordingly, to improve the construction of democracy in China.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134908067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of governance on capital flows in Sub-Saharan African countries 治理对撒哈拉以南非洲国家资本流动的影响
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2122
Abieyuwa Ohonba, Gbenga Wilfred Akinola
{"title":"The effect of governance on capital flows in Sub-Saharan African countries","authors":"Abieyuwa Ohonba, Gbenga Wilfred Akinola","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2122","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of governance in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Specifically, this study investigates (i) the interacting impact of government efficiency, regulatory quality, and the rule of law alongside other socioeconomic variables to determine foreign capital inflow (FCI) based on each economic SSA bloc; and (ii) the characteristic drivers of FCI, impacting economic growth in the SSA countries. Descriptive statistics, static models, least square dummy variables (LSDVs) and the dynamic system general method of moment (GMM) were employed as the study’s estimating techniques. Based on the result of the LSDV, food security and the rule of law significantly impact FCI in the sub-economic blocs in the region. Only six countries across the four economic blocs responded to food security and the rule of law in the model. The dynamic system-GMM provided evidence of five socioeconomic variables and three governance variables contributing to FCI. The findings revealed (i) regulatory quality and the rule of law are governance variables that significantly impacted FCI; and (ii) food security failed to significantly impact FCI in the SSA region. However, inflation, life expectancy, the human capital index, exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP) growth impacted FCI significantly. In the aggregate, inflation, regulatory quality, exchange rate and the human capital index exhibited positive relationships, while other variables such as life expectancy, government effectiveness and the rule of law appeared significant but inversely impacted FCI in the SSA region. The key policy implication recommendation from this study is that a good legal framework could moderate the flow of foreign capital in favour of growth as it creates a strong foundation for sustainable economic development in the region.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134909023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development of micromodels of traffic flows, taking into account environmental factors 发展考虑环境因素的交通流微观模型
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2191
Irina Makarova, Vadim Mavrin, Polina Buyvol
{"title":"Development of micromodels of traffic flows, taking into account environmental factors","authors":"Irina Makarova, Vadim Mavrin, Polina Buyvol","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2191","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers an actual problem of organizing a safe and sustainable urban transport system. We have examined the existing positive global experience in both infrastructural and managerial decisions. Then to assess possible solutions at the stage of infrastructure design, we have developed the simulation micromodels of transport network sections of the medium-sized city (Naberezhnye Chelny) with a rectangular building type. The models make it possible to determine the optimal parameters of the traffic flow, under which pollutant emissions from cars would not lead to high concentrations of pollutants. Also, the model allows to obtain the calculated values of the volume of emissions of pollutants and the parameters of the traffic flow (speed, time of passage of the section, etc.). On specific examples, the proposed method’s effectiveness is shown. Case studies of cities of different sizes and layouts are implementation examples and possible uses proposed by the models. This study has shown the rationality of the suggested solution at the stage of assessing infrastructure projects and choosing the best option for sustainable transport development. The proposed research method is universal and can be applied in any city.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135220593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of macroeconomic and environmental factors on innovation in EU member countries 宏观经济和环境因素对欧盟成员国创新的影响
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2560
Melina Dritsaki, Chaido Dritsaki, Eleni Tsianaka
{"title":"The effect of macroeconomic and environmental factors on innovation in EU member countries","authors":"Melina Dritsaki, Chaido Dritsaki, Eleni Tsianaka","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2560","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the long-run relationship between innovation and macroeconomic and environmental factors in the EU during the period 1990–2020. In the paper, the patents are used as a proxy of the innovation index. The market openness, per capita GDP, foreign direct investment, and oil prices are used as proxies for macroeconomic factors whereas per capita energy consumption, per capita CO2 emissions, and renewable energy sources are proxies for environmental factors. For the analysis of this relationship, two-panel count data models are used, the Poisson regression model and negative binomial model as well as the ARDL cointegration technique and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test. The results of the negative binomial model showed that trade openness, renewable energy sources, and CO2 emissions have a significant and negative relationship with innovation, while GDP, investment, energy consumption, and oil prices have a significant and positive relationship with innovation. Furthermore, the causality test of Dumitrescu and Hurlin showed the presence of an unidirectional causal relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and per capita energy consumption towards innovation.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135367525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Role of digital leadership towards sustainable business performance: A parallel mediation model 数字化领导对可持续业务绩效的作用:一个平行中介模型
Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2416
Fahad Saddique, Beenish Ramzan, Shouvik Sanyal, Jebreel Alamari
{"title":"Role of digital leadership towards sustainable business performance: A parallel mediation model","authors":"Fahad Saddique, Beenish Ramzan, Shouvik Sanyal, Jebreel Alamari","doi":"10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2416","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v7i3.2416","url":null,"abstract":"After the pandemic (COVID-19), there is a dire need to gain a competitive advantage for tourism organizations which can be accomplished by implementing new technologies to facilitate sustainable healthier services. Given that, the study aims to shed light on the importance of digital leadership to improve sustainable business performance considering the parallel mediation of digital technology and digital technology support in the tourism sector of Pakistan. The sample population consists of technology-based tourism organizations in Pakistan. Cochran’s formula was chosen for sampling, in which 37 organizations with 792 employees were selected for data through a random sampling technique. The collected data were analyzed through structural equation modeling, and findings reveal that digital leadership positively influences sustainable business performance. Furthermore, the mediating role of technological leadership support and digital technologies partially mediates the association between digital leadership and sustainable performance.","PeriodicalId":41907,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135405041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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