Forecasting China-Africa economic integration using Wavelet-ARIMA hybrid approach

IF 1 Q4 MANAGEMENT
Marvellous Ngundu, Reon Matemane
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Abstract

China-Africa economic integration generally looks lucid, as evidenced by rising bilateral trade, as well as Chinese FDI, aid, and debt financing for infrastructure development in Africa. The engagement, however, appears to be strategically channeled to benefit China’s resource endowment strategy. First, Chinese FDI in Africa is primarily resource-seeking, with minimum manufacturing value addition. Second, China has successfully replicated the Angola model in other resource-rich African countries, and most infrastructure loans-for-natural resources barter deals are said to be undervalued. There is also a resource-backed loan arrangement in place, in which default Chinese loans are repaid in natural resources. Third, while China claims that its financial aid is critical to Africa’s growth and development processes, a significant portion of the aid is spent on non-development projects such as building parliaments and government buildings. This lend credence to the notion that China uses aid to gain diplomatic recognition from African leaders, with resource-rich and/or institutionally unstable countries being the most targeted. The preceding arguments support why Africa’s exports to China dominate other China’s financial flows to Africa, and consist mainly of natural resources. Accordingly, this study aims to forecast China-Africa economic integration through the lens of China’s demand for natural resources and Africa’s demand for capital, both of which are reflected in Africa’s exports to China. The study used a MODWT-ARIMA hybrid forecasting technique to account for the short period of available China-Africa bilateral trade dataset (1992–2021), and found that Africa’s exports to China are likely to decline from US$ 119.20 billion in 2022 to US$ 13.68 billion in 2026 on average. This finding coincides with a period in which Chinese demand for Africa’s natural resources is expected to decline.
基于小波- arima混合方法预测中非经济一体化
中非经济一体化总体上看起来是清晰的,双边贸易的增长,以及中国对非洲基础设施发展的直接投资、援助和债务融资都证明了这一点。然而,这种接触似乎是战略性的,有利于中国的资源禀赋战略。首先,中国在非洲的直接投资主要是资源寻求,制造业附加值最低。其次,中国已经成功地在其他资源丰富的非洲国家复制了安哥拉模式,而且据说大多数基础设施贷款换自然资源的易货交易都被低估了。此外还有一项资源支持贷款安排,根据该安排,中国的违约贷款将以自然资源偿还。第三,尽管中国声称其财政援助对非洲的增长和发展进程至关重要,但很大一部分援助用于非开发项目,如建设议会和政府大楼。这让人们相信,中国利用援助获得非洲领导人的外交认可,而资源丰富和(或)制度不稳定的国家是最受关注的目标。上述论点支持了为什么非洲对中国的出口主导了中国对非洲的其他金融流动,并且主要由自然资源组成。因此,本研究旨在通过中国对自然资源的需求和非洲对资本的需求来预测中非经济一体化,这两者都反映在非洲对中国的出口中。该研究使用MODWT-ARIMA混合预测技术对现有中非双边贸易数据集(1992-2021)进行了短期预测,发现非洲对中国的出口可能从2022年的1192亿美元平均下降到2026年的136.8亿美元。这一发现恰逢中国对非洲自然资源的需求预计将下降的时期。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
14.30%
发文量
13
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