CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Treatment Plan Comparison in Obstructive Respiratory Disorders: An Observational Study of Doxofylline vs. Theophylline in the Marche Region","authors":"F. Mennini, P. Sciattella, A. Marcellusi, A. Marcobelli, A. Russo, A. Caputi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2673651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2673651","url":null,"abstract":"Objectives - To estimate: a) the number of users of theophylline (ATC: R03DA04) and doxofylline (ATC: R03DA11) for the treatment of chronic asthma and/or COPD in adults, in the Marche Region (Italy); b) the global cost related to the use of the two drugs (associated drugs, specialist visits, hospital admissions, plasma drug monitoring). Methods - The drug prescriptions were extracted from the Information System of the Pharmaceutical Prescriptions of the Marche Region (PHARM), containing all the prescriptions sent by pharmacies within the region and reimbursed by the National Health Service. All the prescriptions for each ATC code in the years 2008-2012 were extracted and the number of prescriptions per year was obtained. The number of subjects receiving >1prescription of the ATC codesR03DA04 and R03DA11 was identified and the number of users was estimated. The concomitant drug number was estimated by selecting all the prescriptions for potentially associated ATCs dispensed 30 days before or after the first prescription of ATC codes. The price of prescriptions was calculated using the information \"price\" contained in the PHARM record. Results - For both drugs in the study period 13,574 patients were treated with theophylline (94,454 prescriptions) and 19,426 patients with doxofylline (62,791). The number of patients treated was approximately 5,000 per year. Both the number of patients and prescriptions declined during the period of study. The number of prescriptions of theophylline was higher in men, that of doxofylline higher in women. Both theophylline and doxofylline prescriptions increased with the age of patients. Co-prescription with other drugs was lower for doxofylline (1.55) than theophylline (5.50) in the total population (71.7% reduction). In the aged patients the reduction of doxofylline prescriptions versus theophylline was 66%. The use of corticosteroids associated with doxofylline was lower versus theophylline: a) in the total population (0.3 vs 0.7), b) in men (0.3 vs 0.9), c) in women (0.3 vs 0.6) and in aged patients (0.3 vs 0.8; 58.1% less). The mean number of specialist visits was lower in patients treated with doxofylline than in those treated with theophylline in the total population (2.05 vs 3.73), in men (2.38 vs 4.43), in women (1.75 vs 2.95) and aged people (2.52 vs 4.18). The mean number of hospital admissions (per 100 patients) was lower for patients treated with doxofylline than for those treated with theophylline in the total population (1.57 vs 3.3) and in aged people (1.94 vs 3.09). In the total population, the annual mean cost of global treatment per patient was €187.4 for those treated with doxofylline and €513.5 for theophylline, while in the aged people it was €247.7 (doxofylline) and €577.3 (theophylline). Conclusions - The PHARM allows to estimate drug utilization, taking into account the overall patient treatment plan. In our study, compared to theophylline, the prescription of doxofylline was associated less","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115783944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Common Feature Analysis of Economic Time Series: An Overview and Recent Developments","authors":"M. Centoni, G. Cubadda","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2669527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2669527","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we overview the literature on common features analysis of economic time series. Starting from the seminal contributions by Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Vahid and Engle (1993), we present and discuss the various notions that have been proposed to detect and model common cyclical features in macroeconometrics. In particular, we analyze in details the link between common cyclical features and the reduced-rank regression model. We also illustrate similarities and differences between the common features methodology and other popular types of multivariate time series modelling. Finally, we discuss some recent developments in this area, such as the implications of common features for univariate time series models and the analysis of common autocorrelation in medium-large dimensional systems.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129055275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Insider's Dilemma: A General Solution in a Repeated Game","authors":"Cesi Berardino, Walter Ferrarese","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2630634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2630634","url":null,"abstract":"We show that in an infinitely repeated Cournot game when firms adopt stick and carrot strategies exogenous horizontal mergers are profitable regardless the size of the merged entity. We characterize an equilibrium in which the new entity maximizes its discounted intertemporal profit under the constraint that each outsider produces just enough to be better off after the merger. Once the merger has occurred each insider gains more than each outsider, therefore the insider's dilemma is completely solved.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128207375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area","authors":"Tommaso Proietti, Martyna Marczak, G. Mazzi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2593062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2593062","url":null,"abstract":"EuroMInd-D is a density estimate of monthly gross domestic product (GDP) constructed according to a bottom–up approach, pooling the density estimates of eleven GDP components, by output and expenditure type. The components density estimates are obtained from a medium-size dynamic factor model of a set of coincident time series handling mixed frequencies of observation and ragged–edged data structures. They reflect both parameter and filtering uncertainty and are obtained by implementing a bootstrap algorithm for simulating from the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters, and conditional simulation filters for simulating from the predictive distribution of GDP. Both algorithms process sequentially the data as they become available in real time. The GDP density estimates for the output and expenditure approach are combined using alternative weighting schemes and evaluated with different tests based on the probability integral transform and by applying scoring rules.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123506974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: The Indicator Saturation Approach","authors":"Martyna Marczak, Tommaso Proietti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2477743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2477743","url":null,"abstract":"Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The general to specific approach to the detection of structural change, currently implemented in Autometrics via indicator saturation, has proven to be both practical and effective in the context of stationary dynamic regression models and unit-root autoregressions. By focusing on impulse- and step-indicator saturation, we investigate via Monte Carlo simulations how this approach performs for detecting additive outliers and level shifts in the analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. The reference model is the basic structural model, featuring a local linear trend, possibly integrated of order two, stochastic seasonality and a stationary component. Further, we apply both kinds of indicator saturation to detect additive outliers and level shifts in the industrial production series in five European countries.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131733292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Causal Effect of Parents’ Schooling on Children’s Schooling in Europe. A New IV Approach.","authors":"E. Havari, Marco Savegnago","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2435933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2435933","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the causal effect of parental education on children’s education in 13 European countries, using representative data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). A novel instrumental variable approach is used to solve the endogeneity issue. We combine two instruments: parental birth order (indicator for being a first born) and Compulsory Schooling Laws (CSL). While CSL have been widely used in applied work, our contribution is to introduce parental birth order as instrument in the intergenerational mobility literature. We find that parental education has a positive, large and significant causal effect on children’s education. This finding is robust to the instrument chosen (birth order, CSL, or both), to sample selection and to several robustness checks.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122416920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distributional vs. Quantile Regression","authors":"R. Koenker, S. Leorato, Franco Peracchi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2368737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2368737","url":null,"abstract":"Given a scalar random variable Y and a random vector X defined on the same probability space, the conditional distribution of Y given X can be represented by either the conditional distribution function or the conditional quantile function. To these equivalent representations correspond two alternative approaches to estimation. One approach, distributional regression (DR), is based on direct estimation of the conditional distribution function; the other approach, quantile regression (QR), is instead based on direct estimation of the conditional quantile function. Indirect estimates of the conditional quantile function and the conditional distribution function may then be obtained by inverting the direct estimates obtained from either approach. Despite the growing attention to the DR approach, and the vast literature on the QR approach, the link between the two approaches has not been explored in detail. The aim of this paper is to fill-in this gap by providing a better understanding of the relative performance of the two approaches, both asymptotically and in finite samples, under the linear location model and certain types of heteroskedastic location-scale models.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121830630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elementary Forms of Economic Organization","authors":"L. Ferraris","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2334824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2334824","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model where societies whose population expands, experience advances in specialization at the cost of diluted monitoring, which limits enforcement and hinders trade possibilities. Cash and private circulating instruments can replace monitoring. Advances in specialization may make it feasible to replace agriculture with manufacturing. The model generates three stable regimes with di¤erent combinations of productive systems and trade arrangements. In small societies, agriculture is accompanied by mutual sharing arrangements of the gift exchange type; in medium sized societies, agriculture is accompanied by monetary trade; in large societies, manufacturing is accompanied by circulating private banknotes issued by specialized agents acting as intermediaries.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"41 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113936075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Building Reputation for Contract Renewal: Implications for Performance Dynamics and Contract Duration","authors":"E. Iossa, P. Rey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1521500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1521500","url":null,"abstract":"We study how career concerns affect the dynamics of incentives in a multi-period contract, when the agent's productivity is a stochastic function of his past productivity and investment. We show that incentives are stronger and performance is higher when the contract approaches its expiry date. Contrary to common wisdom, long-term contracts may strengthen reputational effects whereas short-term contracting may be optimal when investment has persistent, long-term effects.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115627228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Capture, Politics and Antitrust Effectiveness","authors":"R. Ciciretti, Simone Meraglia, G. Piga","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1890504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1890504","url":null,"abstract":"We study the ex-ante budget devoted by a Political Principal to a Competition Authority in charge of collecting evidence on the Industry's behavior. The Industry can capture both the Principal (lobbying) for a reduced budget, and the Authority (side-contracting) so as to avoid fines. Authority's capture is costly to the Principal when side-contracting is sufficiently efficient. Collusion proofness induces high-powered incentives for the Authority, hence fostering the Authority's willingness to spend the allocated budget. For intermediate values of side-contracting's efficiency, in this moral hazard setting we find that the optimal budget increases as side-contracting gets more efficient. Only when side-contracting's efficiency reaches high enough values the budget decreases, thus generating a discrepancy between the Authority's and the Principal's desired level of information gathering. Finally, a complementarity between lobbying of the Principal and capture of the Authority arises.","PeriodicalId":416571,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Centre for Economic & International Studies Working Paper Series","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132544349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}