W. Gornall, Oleg R. Gredil, Sabrina T. Howell, Xing Liu, Jason Sockin
{"title":"Do Employees Cheer for Private Equity? The Heterogeneous Effects of Buyouts on Job Quality","authors":"W. Gornall, Oleg R. Gredil, Sabrina T. Howell, Xing Liu, Jason Sockin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3912230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3912230","url":null,"abstract":"We examine how private equity investments affect job quality. Leveraged buyouts (LBOs) – unlike standard M&A or growth equity deals – reduce employee satisfaction with compensation, work-life balance, firm culture, and senior management. These effects are driven by longer-tenured and lower-skill workers, and by high-leverage deals. However, reported pay is unaffected for most workers, while managers earn substantially more incentive pay. Using deal-level cash-flow return data, we find that LBOs have more IRR pass-through to employee satisfaction than mimicking public equity investments, with 1% higher IRR associated with 0.7% more incentive pay. Overall, LBOs appear to lead to both more rent-sharing with employees and increased job insecurity, particularly in high-leverage deals.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"55 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131519632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effect of Mortgage Regulation on Entrepreneurship","authors":"Stephanie Johnson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3021306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3021306","url":null,"abstract":"Limits on mortgage debt-to-income ratios are particularly costly for self-employed borrowers. I use local variation in exposure to the Ability-to-Repay and Qualified Mortgage rule to identify this unintended consequence of consumer financial protection regulation. By limiting mortgage payment size as a share of stable, documented income, the rule cut credit to households with business income and reduced self-employment by 1.4 per cent. The rule also led to a decline in employment at new small businesses.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"176 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134270641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Florian Berg, Julian F. Kölbel, A. Pavlova, R. Rigobón
{"title":"ESG Confusion and Stock Returns: Tackling the Problem of Noise","authors":"Florian Berg, Julian F. Kölbel, A. Pavlova, R. Rigobón","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3941514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3941514","url":null,"abstract":"How strongly does ESG (environmental, social and governance) performance affect stock returns? Answering this question is difficult because existing measures of performance, ESG ratings, are noisy. To tackle the bias, we propose a noise-correction procedure, in which we instrument ESG ratings with ratings of other ESG rating agencies, as in the classical errors-in-variables problem. The corrected estimates demonstrate that the effect of ESG performance on stock returns is stronger than previously estimated; the standard regression estimates of ESG ratings' impact on stock returns are biased downward by about 60%. Our dataset includes scores of eight ESG rating agencies for firms located in North America, Europe, and Japan. We determine which agencies’ scores are valid instruments (not all of them are) and estimate the noise-to-signal ratio for each ESG rating agency (some of which are very large). Overall, our results suggest that it is advantageous to rely on several complementary ratings. In our sample, stocks with higher ESG performance have higher expected returns. Our model provides several explanations for this finding.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115523311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Size Matter? The Real Effects of Subsidizing Small Firms","authors":"M. Denes, R. Duchin, John Hackney","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3451424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3451424","url":null,"abstract":"Size standards determine small firms’ eligibility for U.S. government subsidies. We estimate the economic effects of access to these subsidies by exploiting randomness in the timing of size standard changes across industries surrounding the Small Business Jobs Act of 2010. We find that size standards have increased considerably over the past decade, leading to the crowding out of the smallest firms, as reflected by lower shares of small businesses in employment and payroll. Consequently, overall employment growth decreases, wages drop, and displaced workers become unemployed. We provide micro-level evidence on subsidy reallocation to larger firms in procurement and loan programs.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115076275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
William Grieser, Ioannis Spyridopoulos, Morad Zekhnini
{"title":"The Epidemiology of Financial Constraints","authors":"William Grieser, Ioannis Spyridopoulos, Morad Zekhnini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904480","url":null,"abstract":"We use a network regression approach to study the propagation of financial constraints through production networks. We find that supply-chain partners' constraints i) are roughly 73% as important as a firm's own constraints for explaining investment levels, ii) propagate primarily upstream, and iii) play an important role in supply-chain network formation. To facilitate a causal interpretation, we exploit loan covenant violations in a novel Network Regression Discontinuity Design that allows for spillovers in treatment effects. Our study suggests that the aggregate effects of financial constraints on under-investment are considerably understated in firm-centric (i.e., non-network) settings that ignore spillovers.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114805708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Share Repurchases, Undervaluation, and Corporate Social Responsibility","authors":"Nils Bobenhausen, Andreas Knetsch, A. Salzmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3754283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3754283","url":null,"abstract":"Share repurchases have experienced growing popularity in recent years. The wealth transfer between shareholders associated with share repurchases has however been widely neglected in the literature, yet. Since managers are free to time repurchases so that ongoing shareholders profit at the expense of selling shareholders or vice versa, we investigate how the wealth transfer from share repurchases relates to a firm’s priorities regarding its stakeholder orienta-tion. Based on the idea that firms with higher corporate social responsibility (CSR) engage-ment take the interests of all stakeholders into more equal consideration, we posit that their managers are less inclined to take advantage of the wealth transfer from selling to ongoing shareholders, which occurs if the firm is undervalued. Consistent with this notion, our results show that firms with higher CSR engagement announce their repurchases in periods of ceteris paribus lower undervaluation. We find the same effect when using other proxies of a firm’s stakeholder orientation than CSR engagement. Overall, our results contribute to the under-standing of how stakeholder orientation and CSR engagement affect financial decision mak-ing and provide insights into the motives behind share repurchases.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121216592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Horizontal Mergers, Investments and Industry Evolution","authors":"Dongxu Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3919298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3919298","url":null,"abstract":"Do horizontal mergers shape the way an industry evolves? I answer this question by investigating the non-merging rivals’ investments. Based on the stylized fact that the rivals’ performance on average declines in the three years following horizontal mergers, I find the rivals become more cost efficient. Specifically, their R&D, PP&E, and labor investments increase in the segments close to the merger’s industry. These segments appear to have higher Tobin’s Q. Firms with greater R&D increases experience more reductions in the cost of goods sold, SG&A, and higher asset turnovers. The investment allocations are more pronounced among the innovative rivals, the neck-and-neck rivals, and the unconstrained rivals. Overall, this paper helps us better understand how firms deal with competitive pressure through internal capital markets.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125081249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Competition and Mergers with Strategic Data Intermediaries","authors":"D. Bounie, Antoine Dubus, P. Waelbroeck","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3918829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918829","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze competition between data intermediaries collecting information on consumers, which they sell to firms for price discrimination purposes. We show that competition between data intermediaries benefits consumers by increasing competition between firms, and by reducing the amount of consumer data collected. We argue that merger policy guidelines should investigate the effect of the data strategies of large intermediaries on competition and consumer surplus in related markets.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"185 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133314153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Predicting Status of Pre and Post M&A Deals Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques","authors":"T. Karatas, Ali Hirsa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3923065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923065","url":null,"abstract":"Risk arbitrage or merger arbitrage is a well-known investment strategy that speculates on the success of M&A deals. Prediction of the deal status in advance is of great importance for risk arbitrageurs. If a deal is mistakenly classified as a completed deal, then enormous cost can be incurred as a result of investing in target company shares. On the contrary, risk arbitrageurs may lose the opportunity of making profit. In this paper, we present an ML and DL based methodology for takeover success prediction problem. We initially apply various ML techniques for data preprocessing such as kNN for data imputation, PCA for lower dimensional representation of numerical variables, MCA for categorical variables, and LSTM autoencoder for sentiment scores. We experiment with different cost functions, different evaluation metrics, and oversampling techniques to address class imbalance in our dataset. We then implement feedforward neural networks to predict the success of the deal status. Our preliminary results indicate that our methodology outperforms the benchmark models such as logit and weighted logit models. We also integrate sentiment scores into our methodology using different model architectures, but our preliminary results show that the performance is not changing much compared to the simple FFNN framework. We will explore different architectures and employ a thorough hyperparameter tuning for sentiment scores as a future work.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130674342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Uncovering latent clusters in cross-border M&A completion data: The role of institutional and economic factors","authors":"M. Wiedemann, J. Niederreiter","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3928601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3928601","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze institutional and economic drivers behind cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) completion ratios between 2004 and 2018 from both the acquirer and target country perspective using a novel regression technique named Classifier Lasso (C-Lasso), which identifies latent clusters in panel data and simultaneously estimates regression coefficients. We find that two country clusters exist for both the acquirer and target country perspective, which do not reflect the frequently assumed dichotomy between developed and emerging economies. For the country clusters comprising considerably more (fewer) EU member states, institutional development has an overall negative (positive) effect on cross-border M&A completion for both outward and inward M&A. Thus, which institutional and economic factors constitute a boon or a bane for M&A completion depends on the country's perspective and its affiliation to additional supra-national environments.","PeriodicalId":416026,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Corporate Finance & Governance eJournal","volume":"303 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116255843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}