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An Approach to Quantifying Operational Resilience Concepts 操作弹性概念的量化方法
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3127
Chase Englund
{"title":"An Approach to Quantifying Operational Resilience Concepts","authors":"Chase Englund","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3127","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses public data disclosed in eight bank holding companies' \"living wills\", or Resolution Plans, to examine and test how operational resilience can contribute to financial system stability. The banks, each subject to the Large Institution Supervision Coordinating Committee (LISCC) supervisory program, interact in a complex network of Financial Market Utilities (FMUs). By employing complementary public data on operational exposures and benchmarks for operational disruption developed in existing research, we construct plausible estimates of how various disruption events would impact the financial system. This paper provides a tangible, reproducible example of how concepts discussed in recent regulatory agency guidance on operational resilience can be employed for risk analysis and scenario testing. It also demonstrates how network mapping can aid in this type of analysis. The estimates generated here indicate that disruptions stemming from tail-end operational risk events extend beyond absolute financial losses, and are likely to be large enough to pose a systemic risk to the financial system.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"116 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120926820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Young Borrowers' Usage of Cosigned Credit Cards and Long Run Outcomes 年轻借款人对联名信用卡的使用及其长期结果
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3165
Hannah Case
{"title":"Young Borrowers' Usage of Cosigned Credit Cards and Long Run Outcomes","authors":"Hannah Case","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3165","url":null,"abstract":"In the United States, access to credit is an important channel for smoothing consumption and building wealth. However, establishing and building a credit history can take time. Parents may be able to help their children build credit early and ensure good credit behavior, such as paying on time, by being a cosigner on a credit card.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"186 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115697812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing? 关于软着陆的可能性，贝弗里奇曲线告诉了我们什么?
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3190
Andrew Figura, Christopher J. Waller
{"title":"What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?","authors":"Andrew Figura, Christopher J. Waller","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3190","url":null,"abstract":"Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing should take into account the situation in the labor market currently and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125588801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Declining Affordability and Home Purchase Borrowing by Lower Income Households 低收入家庭的负担能力下降和购房贷款
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3160
Daniel R. Ringo
{"title":"Declining Affordability and Home Purchase Borrowing by Lower Income Households","authors":"Daniel R. Ringo","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3160","url":null,"abstract":"Recent increases in interest rates, combined with the rapid rise in house prices over the past two years, have eroded the affordability of homeownership. This note provides evidence that home purchase borrowing by below-average income households has fallen precipitously in 2022.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115351167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Bottlenecks, Shortages, and Soaring Prices in the U.S. Economy 美国经济中的瓶颈、短缺和飞涨的价格
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3153
D. Datta, Laura Feiveson, E. Peneva, Gisela Rua
{"title":"Bottlenecks, Shortages, and Soaring Prices in the U.S. Economy","authors":"D. Datta, Laura Feiveson, E. Peneva, Gisela Rua","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3153","url":null,"abstract":"Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, sweeping production constraints, combined with surging demand in some industries, have led to shortages, severe congestion, and soaring prices. What will it take for these bottlenecks to resolve and for price pressures to ease?","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122108858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Substitutability between Balance Sheet Reductions and Policy Rate Hikes: Some Illustrations and a Discussion 资产负债表缩减与政策加息之间的可替代性:一些例证与讨论
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3147
E. Crawley, Etienne Gagnon, J. Hebden, James Trevino
{"title":"Substitutability between Balance Sheet Reductions and Policy Rate Hikes: Some Illustrations and a Discussion","authors":"E. Crawley, Etienne Gagnon, J. Hebden, James Trevino","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3147","url":null,"abstract":"This note explores the substitutability between policy rate hikes and reductions in the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet for the removal of policy accommodation. We do so using a version of the FRB/US model augmented to incorporate the effects of changes in the Federal Reserve's asset holdings on term premiums.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115756451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Economic Restrictions during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Measures of Small Business Health COVID-19大流行期间的经济限制和小企业健康措施
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3051
Timothy E. Dore, Traci L. Mach
{"title":"Economic Restrictions during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Measures of Small Business Health","authors":"Timothy E. Dore, Traci L. Mach","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3051","url":null,"abstract":"Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, state and local governments have instituted a wide array of restrictions on activity, easing or tightening these restrictions as concerns about transmission evolved. The particular choices that governments made could have large impacts on both public health and on economic prosperity. In this note, we provide evidence on the correlation between the level of these restrictions and a key component of the vitality of local economies, namely small businesses. We find that, in states with tighter restrictions, a greater proportion of small businesses generally reported levels of significantly curtailed operations than in states with looser restrictions throughout the pandemic, although this relationship weakens by the summer of 2021. In addition, states with tighter restrictions experienced a larger increase in small business loan default rates. At the same time, it appears that the Paycheck Protection Program helped to mitigate effects of government-imposed restrictions on small business health.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"422 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129328681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk 经济衰退风险的金融和宏观经济指标
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3126
Michael T. Kiley
{"title":"Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk","authors":"Michael T. Kiley","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3126","url":null,"abstract":"Recessions impose sizable hardship, with large increases in the unemployment rate and related dislocations. In addition, recessions can lead to large shifts in financial markets. As a result, economists and financial market professionals have considered prediction models to assess the probability of a recession.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117235081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The post-COVID stock listing boom 后covid上市热潮
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3125
Christine L. Dobridge, Rebecca R. John, Berardino Palazzo
{"title":"The post-COVID stock listing boom","authors":"Christine L. Dobridge, Rebecca R. John, Berardino Palazzo","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3125","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. equity markets have witnessed a surge in the number of publicly listed companies. Using data for the three major U.S. stock exchanges (AMEX, NYSE, and NASDAQ), we find that the number of publicly traded companies went from 4,144 at the end of August 2020 to 5,301 at the end of December 2021, a staggering increase of about 28 percent.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"337 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124307962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Interest Rates Expectations and Flow Dynamics in High Yield Corporate Debt Mutual funds 高收益公司债共同基金的利率预期与资金流动动态
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3115
Ayelen Banegas, Christopher Finch
{"title":"Interest Rates Expectations and Flow Dynamics in High Yield Corporate Debt Mutual funds","authors":"Ayelen Banegas, Christopher Finch","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3115","url":null,"abstract":"Fixed-income mutual funds saw massive outflows during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, with funds investing primarily in high yield debt markets experiencing the largest redemptions, as a percentage of assets. In March 2020 alone, high yield bond (HYB) and bank loan (BL) mutual fund withdrawals reached an estimated 4.1 and 13.6 percent of assets under management (AUM), accounting for close to $10.4 and $11.4 billion, respectively. Following interventions from the Federal Reserve that helped restore credit market conditions and brought U.S. interest rates back to new lows, flow dynamics of HYB and BL funds began to diverge substantially.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121855176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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