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Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations 趋势通胀有失控的风险吗?通胀预期的作用
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3043
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Francesca Loria, D. López-Salido
{"title":"Is Trend Inflation at Risk of Becoming Unanchored? The Role of Inflation Expectations","authors":"Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Francesca Loria, D. López-Salido","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3043","url":null,"abstract":"Since the start of the pandemic, views about the evolution of aggregate consumer prices moved swiftly from concerns about deflation to fears about excessive inflation. It is hard to find a parallel in the history of the U.S. economy—or the global economy more generally—to this rapid reversal of risks to the inflation outlook.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"49 8","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114036799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
(Don't Fear) The Yield Curve, Reprise (不要害怕)收益率曲线，重复
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-03-25 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3099
Eric C. Engstrom, Steven A. Sharpe
{"title":"(Don't Fear) The Yield Curve, Reprise","authors":"Eric C. Engstrom, Steven A. Sharpe","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3099","url":null,"abstract":"In recent months, financial market perceptions about the future path of short-term interest rates have evolved amidst signals from policymakers suggesting that reduced monetary policy accommodation is in the offing. As with previous episodes of policy tightening, most recently in 2018, one can hear an attendant rise in the volume of commentary about a decline in the slope of the yield curve and the risk of \"inversion,\" whereby long-term yields fall below shorter-maturity yields.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120935764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Testing Bank Resiliency Through Time 随着时间的推移测试银行的弹性
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-03-18 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3070
Sergio Correia, Matthew P. Seay, Cindy M. Vojtech
{"title":"Testing Bank Resiliency Through Time","authors":"Sergio Correia, Matthew P. Seay, Cindy M. Vojtech","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3070","url":null,"abstract":"A resilient banking system meets the demands of households and businesses for financial services during both benign and severe macroeconomic and financial conditions. Banks' ability to weather severe macroeconomic shocks, and their willingness to continue providing financial services, depends on their levels of capital, balance sheet exposures, and ability to generate earnings. This note uses the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) stress testing model to evaluate the resiliency of the banking system by consistently applying severe macroeconomic and financial shocks each quarter between 2014:Q1 and 2021:Q3.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123689117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Drivers of Bank Supply of Business Loans 银行提供商业贷款的驱动因素
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-02-22 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3059
A. Castro, David P. Glancy, F. Ionescu
{"title":"Drivers of Bank Supply of Business Loans","authors":"A. Castro, David P. Glancy, F. Ionescu","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3059","url":null,"abstract":"Numerous studies show that tightening loan supply may significantly affect credit outcomes, including declines in total lending capacity and changes in loan terms (see for example, Bassett et al. (2014), Castro et al. (2022), Lown and Morgan (2006)). Moreover, research has linked these supply-driven declines in credit to negative effects on economic outcomes, including employment or output (see Alfaro et al. (2021) or Herheknhoff (2019)).","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125985824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What Happens When Banks Tighten C&I Loan Supply? 银行收紧C&I贷款供应会发生什么?
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3058
A. Castro, David P. Glancy, F. Ionescu, Greg Marchal
{"title":"What Happens When Banks Tighten C&I Loan Supply?","authors":"A. Castro, David P. Glancy, F. Ionescu, Greg Marchal","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3058","url":null,"abstract":"The supply of bank credit is an important driver of macroeconomic outcomes, with significant implications for employment and output (Basset et al., 2014; Chodorow-Reich, 2014). However, studying credit supply is not straightforward for several reasons.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133796568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Estimating U.S. Cross-Border Securities Flows: Ten Years of the TIC SLT 估计美国跨境证券流动:TIC SLT的十年
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3068
Carol C. Bertaut, Ruth A. Judson
{"title":"Estimating U.S. Cross-Border Securities Flows: Ten Years of the TIC SLT","authors":"Carol C. Bertaut, Ruth A. Judson","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3068","url":null,"abstract":"The Treasury International Capital (TIC) system collects cross-border securities positions and transactions data and is the primary source of information on foreign official and private demand for U.S. Treasuries and other U.S. securities, as well as for U.S. investment in foreign securities. As noted in earlier work, though, the TIC system currently collects data separately on holdings of securities (the monthly TIC SLT and the annual SHL/SHC collections) and on transactions, the TIC S, and these two data streams can be difficult to reconcile, making interpretation of movements in the data challenging.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128160332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Global Real Economic Uncertainty and COVID-19 全球实体经济不确定性与新冠肺炎
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3045
Ranie Lin, Juan M. Londoño, Sai Ma
{"title":"Global Real Economic Uncertainty and COVID-19","authors":"Ranie Lin, Juan M. Londoño, Sai Ma","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3045","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented disruptions in supply, demand, and productivity, which have had cataclysmic health, social, and economic implications across the globe. In this note, we explore the large increase in global real economic uncertainty observed during the pandemic as a channel that explains or magnifies the economic implications of COVID-19","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115844818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Lawyer's Perspective on U.S. Payment System Evolution and Money in the Digital Age 从律师的角度看美国支付系统的演变和数字时代的货币
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-02-04 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2964
Jess Cheng, Joseph A. Torregrossa
{"title":"A Lawyer's Perspective on U.S. Payment System Evolution and Money in the Digital Age","authors":"Jess Cheng, Joseph A. Torregrossa","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.2964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2964","url":null,"abstract":"Take a close look at something that is widely used by the general public as \"money\"—a Federal Reserve note, a deposit with a bank, a balance with a nonbank payment company (such as PayPal or Venmo), or perhaps even a cryptocurrency—and ask what it means to use it as a store of value and a medium of exchange. That question is, in essence, a legal one.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134232399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Security Considerations for a Central Bank Digital Currency 中央银行数字货币的安全考虑
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2970
Tarik R. Hansen, Katya Delak
{"title":"Security Considerations for a Central Bank Digital Currency","authors":"Tarik R. Hansen, Katya Delak","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.2970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2970","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) has gained traction in recent years, with an increasing number of central banks announcing efforts to explore CBDC use cases and designs. Institutions are in various stages of research and development, with some just beginning their research and others already entering pilot testing or even production, albeit on a limited scale.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132029153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
How global risk perceptions affect economic growth 全球风险认知如何影响经济增长
FEDS Notes Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3054
Jón Dańıelsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer
{"title":"How global risk perceptions affect economic growth","authors":"Jón Dańıelsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer","doi":"10.17016/2380-7172.3054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3054","url":null,"abstract":"The global crisis in 2008 reminded us of the importance of the financial sector for the macroeconomy, a lesson many had forgotten in the decades after the previous global crisis, the Great Depression. Financial risk matters. It is necessary for investment and growth, while also driving uncertainty, inefficiency, recessions, and crises.","PeriodicalId":411218,"journal":{"name":"FEDS Notes","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115669188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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