Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika最新文献

{"title":"Penerapan Model ARCH/GARCH untuk Memprediksi Harga Saham Perusahaan Tokai Carbon","authors":"Muhammad Irfan Rizki, Teguh Ammar Taqiyyuddin, Puspa Faydian Rahmah, Amsal Esa Hasana","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13138","url":null,"abstract":"Data historis saham merupakan ringkasan perkembangan harga saham individual suatu emiten. Penelitian ini membahas tentang peramalan data historis saham Tokai Carbon, dengan 60 data dari bulan Januari 2016 hingga Desember 2020. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk memodelkan data historis saham Tokai Carbon dengan menggunakan model ARCH/GARCH. Diperoleh hasil bahwa model GARCH (0,1) merupakan model yang tepat untuk meramalkan data historis saham Tokai Carbon. Menggunakan model GARCH (0,1) dilakukan peramalan data historis saham Tokai Carbon untuk 7 bulan ke depan, yakni mulai Januari 2021 hingga Juli 2021.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131283175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Penerapan Model SARIMA untuk Memprediksi Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia","authors":"Muhammad Irfan Rizki, Teguh Ammar Taqiyyuddin","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13168","url":null,"abstract":"Inflasi dapat diartikan sebagai kejadian meningkatnya harga – harga barang ataupun jasa secara keseluruhan dan berkelanjutan yang mengakibatkan  penurunan nilai tukar rupiah mempengaruhi daya beli industri untuk mengimpor bahan baku atau bahan mentah.  Hal tersebut tentunya dapat mengancam yang ditandai fenomena moneter yang mencerminkan adanya pertumbuhan moneter yang berlebihan dan tidak stabil. Upaya yang dapat dilakukan untuk mengatasi masalah ini adalah dengan meramalkan inflasi di Indonesia. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mendapatkan model peramalan inflasi di Indonesia dengan periode bulanan sehingga dapat diketahui kapan perlunya peningkatan antisipasi dalam bentuk upaya penanganan agar inflasi tetap stabil. Data yang digunakan adalah data historis inflasi bulanan dengan periode waktu Januari 2003 sampai November 2020. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah model SARIMA, yaitu pengembangan dari model ARIMA yang dapat mengakomodasi adanya pola musiman pada data inflasi. Berdasarkan pengolahan data, diperoleh model terbaik dengan nilai AIC terkecil yaitu ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,1)12. Dengan melakukan penelitian ini, diharapkan dapat menjadi acuan bagi pemerintah untuk menentukan langkah antisipasi terjadinya masalah di bidang perekonomian pada bulan-bulan tersebut, dengan memberikan input bagi Bank Indonesia sebagai pertimbangan pengambilan kebijakan moneter. Kata Kunci: Inflasi,SARIMA, Peramalan Abstract Inflation can be interpreted as an overall and sustainable increase in the prices of goods or services resulting in a decrease in the rupiah exchange rate affecting the purchasing power of the industry to import raw materials or raw materials. This, of course, can be threatening, marked by a monetary phenomenon that reflects excessive and unstable monetary growth. Efforts that can be made to overcome this problem is to forecast inflation in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to obtain a model for forecasting inflation in Indonesia with a monthly period so that it can be seen when it is necessary to increase anticipation in the form of handling efforts so that inflation remains stable. The data used is historical monthly inflation data with a time period of January 2003 to November 2020. The method used in this study is the SARIMA model, which is the development of the ARIMA model that can accommodate seasonal patterns in inflation data. Based on data processing, the best model is obtained with the smallest AIC value, namely ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,1)12. By conducting this research, it is hoped that it can serve as a reference for the government to take steps to anticipate problems in the economy during these months, by providing input for Bank Indonesia as a consideration for making monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"182 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121829565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"sistem Pendukung Keputusan Pemilihan Smartphone dengan Pendekatan Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making","authors":"Perli Pujiana","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.12921","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.12921","url":null,"abstract":"Semakin banyak jenis smartphone yang dikeluarkan oleh produsen smartphone dari tahun ke tahun membuat  para konsumen kesulitan dalam memilih smartphone sesuai dengan kebutuhan mereka masing-masing. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk memberikan rekomendasi smartphone agar dapat mempermudah masyarakat dalam menentukan keputusan untuk pemilihan produk smartphone dengan tepat dan sesuai kebutuhan. Penulis menggunakan Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making yang menggunakan metode Simple Additive Weighting. Berdasarkan perhitungan yang telah dilakukan, smartphone dengan jumlah nilai tertinggi yaitu 0,791 adalah Xiaomi Redmi 9 merupakan pilihan yang terbaik. Kemudian dilanjutkan dengan Xiaomi Redmi Note 9 dengan jumlah nilai 0,755, Vivo Y12i dengan nilai 0,714 dan Samsung Galaxy A21s dengan nilai 0,703.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115403882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Sepeda Motor Honda Dengan Penerapan Klasifikasi Always Better Control Pada Dealer Putra Suryajaya Raya II","authors":"Susi Susanti Komariah","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.12975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.12975","url":null,"abstract":"Stock control is an effort made by a company in providing the goods needed for the production process to be fulfilled optimally so that the production process runs smoothly and reduces risk funds that will occur such as shortages of goods. After being evaluated, it turns out that the average demand for motorbikes increases every month, due to the large number of motorbike sales per month, this causes Putra Surya Jaya Raya II Dealer to provide sufficient motorbikes according to their needs in order to support quality service and can add value to investment. for Putra Surya Jaya Raya II Dealer, Ujung Batu Sosa. ABC analysis is a method of classifying goods based on the ranking of values from the highest to the lowest value, and is divided into 3 major groups called groups A, B and C. By calculating safety stock, control of motorbike supplies will be optimal, namely class A 6 motorcycle brands. attention / prioritize. Based on the calculation of the ABC analysis used to determine the priority of motorbikes included in group A as many as 6 types or 8.96% of all types of motorcycle inventories with an investment value of Rp. 973,130,000 or 65.56% of the total investment. There were 5 types of motorbikes belonging to group B or 7.46% of all motorbikes with an investment value of Rp. 338,770,000 or 22.82% of the total investment in motorbikes. Meanwhile, there were 56 types of motorbikes belonging to group C or 83.58% of all motorbikes with an investment value of Rp. 172,450,000 or 11.62% of the total motorcycle investment at the Honda Putra Surya Jaya Raya II Sosa Authorized Dealer.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"459 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116159708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pendistribusian Penjualan Beras Menggunakan Best Candidate Method Dan Modi","authors":"Sri Basriati, M.Sc, Elfira - Safitri, Ayu - Octariana","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13364","url":null,"abstract":"Four Brothers Store Pekanbaru is one of the shops engaged in the distribution of rice. The distribution of rice must be allocated in such a way because there are differences in transportation costs from one source to different destinations. The transportation model is the distribution of an item from a source (supply) to a destination (demand) aiming to optimize the number of shipments to the destination in one shipment, so as to reduce costs as low as possible. The method used in this study is the Best Candidate Method. The Best Candidate Method is a method to find a feasible solution for the minimum initial cost of transportation by comparing the total cost between one combination and another. Next, the optimal solution will be determined using the MODI method. The purpose of this study is to obtain a feasible solution for the minimum initial cost of distributing rice sales at the Empat Saudara Store using the Best Candidate Method. Based on the results of the research on the distribution of rice at the Empat Saudara Store Pekanbaru using the Best Candidate Method, the solution was not optimal at a cost of Rp. 996,566 after checking using the MODI method resulted in an optimal solution of Rp. 976,665.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129657660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analisis Jalur Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Kriminalitas di Jawa Timur Tahun 2020","authors":"Rafli Anderson Lapebesi, Erlyna Nurhaliza Pramesti, Adima Lu’lu’atun Nabila Munawardani, Muhammad Nor Ahyandi, Marina Tika Sari, Risni Julaeni Yuhan","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I2.13381","url":null,"abstract":"Rasa aman merupakan salah satu kebutuhan dasar manusia yang biasanya diukur dengan menggunakan indikator negatif, misalnya jumlah angka kejahatan ( crime total ) atau jumlah orang yang berisiko terkena tindak kejahatan ( crime rate ). Menurut data dari Badan Pusat Statistik, Provinsi Jawa Timur selalu menempati peringkat 3 terbesar di Pulau Jawa  dengan  jumlah kasus kejahatan terbanyak. Pada tahun 2020 jumlah kasus kriminalitas di Jawa Timur tercatat  terdapat 24.186 kejadian. Tingginya jumlah kasus kriminalitas tentunya dipengaruhi oleh beberapa variabel baik itu ekonomi maupun sosial. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji variabel-variabel yang dominan dalam mempengaruhi jumlah kasus kriminalitas di Jawa Timur tahun 2020 dengan menggunakan  analisis jalur. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang bersumber dari publikasi yang diterbitkan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik. Berdasarkan hasil analisis yang dilakukan, variabel persentase penduduk 10 tahun ke atas yang  tidak bisa membaca dan menulis dan TPT mempengaruhi jumlah kasus kriminalitas di Jawa Timur baik secara langsung maupun  tidak langsung sedangkan variabel kepadatan penduduk mempengaruhi jumlah kasus kriminalitas secara tidak langsung. TPT menjadi variabel yang memiliki pengaruh terbesar terhadap jumlah kasus kriminalitas di Jawa Timur tahun 2020.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133851511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DETERMINAN MATRIKS HANKEL BENTUK KHUSUS ORDO BERPANGKAT BILANGAN BULAT POSITIF","authors":"Ade Novia Rahma, Zharifatul Aqilah","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.12193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.12193","url":null,"abstract":"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan determinan matriks Hankel bentuk khusus ordo  berpangkat bilangan bulat positif menggunakan ekspansi kofaktor. Sebelum menentukan determinan, maka terlebih dahulu ditentukan bentuk umum matriks Hankel berpangkat bilangan bulat positif dengan memperhatikan bentuk pola  sampai  yang dinotasikan dengan  dan membuktikannya dengan induksi matematika. Selanjutnya ditentukan determinan matriks  dengan memperhatikan bentuk pola determinan dari  sampai yang dinotasikan dengan  dan membuktikannya dengan pembuktian langsung. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh bentuk umum matriks dan determinan dari matriks Hankel bentuk khusus berpangkat bilangan bulat positif.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133241235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediksi Jumlah Narapidana Kelas II A Kota Pekanbaru Menggunakan Model ARIMA","authors":"Ari Pani Desvina","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.12390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.12390","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126205058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implementasi Regresi Logistik Ordinal Pada Sistem Pembelajaran Daring Di Era COVID-19 Terhadap Kesehatan Mental Guru SD di Kota Pekanbaru","authors":"Karin Karin, Riswan Efendi, Lisya Chairani, Indah Manda Sari","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.11786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.11786","url":null,"abstract":"Pandemi COVID-19 memicu perubahan sistem pembelajaran luring menjadi daring. Perubahan secara mendadak ini tentu memberi dampak positif dan negatif pada siswa, mahasiswa, orang tua, guru dan dosen. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memodelkan faktor sistem pembelajaran daring pada masa pandemi COVID-19 terhadap kesehatan mental guru SD menggunakan regresi logistik ordinal. Data yang digunakan merupakan data primer dari 50 guru SD di Kota Pekanbaru. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kemampuan menggunakan teknologi dan pembelajaran daring berhubungan terhadap kesehatan mental guru SD. Variabel kemampuan menggunakan teknologi dan efektifitas pembelajaran daring berhubungan terhadap kesehatan mental guru dengan nilai odds ratio sebesar 6,3661 dan 0,0228 kali. Sehingga guru SD yang mempunyai kemampuan tinggi dalam menggunakan teknologi memiliki resiko mengalami gejala PTSD sebesar 6,3661 kali. Sedangkan guru SD yang berasumsi bahwa pembelajaran daring cukup efektif memiliki resiko mengalami gejala PTSD sebesar 0,0228 kali.  Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi sumber informasi dalam pengambilan keputusan terkait pembelajaran daring dan kesehatan mental guru SD.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134370579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trace Matriks n×n Berbentuk Khusus Berpangkat Bilangan Bulat Positif","authors":"C. C. Marzuki, Fitri Aryani, Rahmawati Rahmawati","doi":"10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.11561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24014/JSMS.V7I1.11561","url":null,"abstract":"Trace matriks merupakan jumlah dari entri-entri pada diagonal utama dari matriks bujur sangkar. Pada makalah ini akan ditentukan bentuk umum trace matriks berbentuk khusus berpangkat bilangan bulat positif dengan entri bilangan riil. Untuk mendapatkan bentuk umum dari trace matriks berbentuk khusus berpangkat bilangan bulat positif maka harus dilakukan pendugaan melalui pencarian perpangkatan matriks berbentuk khusus untuk beberapa ordo dan beberapa bilangan bulat positif sebagai pangkatnya. Selanjutnya bentuk umum yang diduga akan dibuktikan menggunakan induksi matematika. Kemudian membuktikan trace matriks dengan pembuktian langsung.","PeriodicalId":403832,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127583261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}