{"title":"Financial frictions, bank intermediation and monetary policy transmission in India","authors":"Shesadri Banerjee, Harendra Behera","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12355","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12355","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Do the different types of financial friction have differential implications for monetary transmission in emerging economies? We investigate this question using India as the country for analysis. We adopt a New Keynesian business cycle model with bank intermediation, extend it by the Indian economy-specific features and validate with the data. The baseline model explains the co-movements of interest rates, incomplete pass-through and sluggish adjustment mechanism of the macro-financial variables for a policy interest rate shock. It identifies the collateral-constrained, financially excluded households and low proportion of savers as the primary sources of frictions causing weak monetary transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"749-785"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43472302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why did Chinese state-owned enterprises have higher export propensity? A study based on 2003–2007 data","authors":"Wei Luo, Yue Lu, Huimin Shi","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12353","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12353","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compared with privately owned enterprises (POEs), Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are 6 percent more likely to export, although SOE productivity and external financial ability are 0.9 percent and 20% lower, respectively. To account for SOEs' higher export propensity, we build a model of firms' export decisions, embodying productivity, internal and external financing ability, and two aspects of China's institutional background: invisible subsidies to SOEs and preferential lending. We apply the model to firms from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Survey Data, from 2003 to 2007, and find that SOEs' advantages in receiving invisible subsidies and more bank loans can significantly explain their higher export propensity.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"561-588"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42652709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Revenue pressure of local governments and firm productivity: Evidence from a natural experiment in China","authors":"Ling Zhu, Dongmin Kong","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12352","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12352","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates how the revenue pressure of local governments affects firm total factor productivity (TFP). To establish causality, we exploit a policy shock in China, that is, the cancellation of agricultural tax in 2005. Specifically, we document that governments suffering from sudden tax reduction substantially increase local firms' productivity in the subsequent periods. Furthermore, we use the difference-in-differences-in-differences approach to explore the potential channels through which the local fiscal squeeze improves firm productivity. Local firms increase capital and employment and adopt a higher capital-to-labour substitution for a higher TFP in response to the local governments' fiscal squeeze. We find that the effects of revenue pressure incentives on productivity are prominent in firms with low resource misallocation and high labour quality. Our finding suggests that local governments could improve firm productivity in response to fiscal revenue pressure by enhancing resource allocation efficiency and labour quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"721-748"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41526423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The income loss of a political crisis: Evidence from Madagascar","authors":"Idriss Fontaine, Justinien Razafindravaosolonirina","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12354","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12354","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the late 1950s, Madagascar has experienced four constitutional changes and four crises of a political nature. In the present paper, we assess the economic effects of the 2009 Malagasy political crisis, which stands out from the three previous crises because of its suddenness and its duration. For this purpose, we use the synthetic control method, which involves determining the most credible counterfactual for the Malagasy economy from a subset of optimally weighted untreated countries. This empirical approach clearly shows that the output loss of this crisis is sizable, leading to a per capita income loss of around 25% 8 years after the start of the crisis. Sensitivity analyses applied to verify the robustness of our main result confirm that the effect of the 2009 Malagasy political crisis was unusually large. We then conduct an in-depth analysis to understand the main mechanisms that explain this output loss. We confirm that investments are probably the main determinants explaining the output loss after the crisis. We believe that our approach reveals that political instability is one of the main constraints preventing Madagascar from prospering.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"657-681"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47308292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rainfall fluctuations and rural poverty: Evidence from Chinese county-level data","authors":"Litao Feng, Wei Liu, Zhihui Zhao, Yining Wang","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12351","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12351","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rainfall fluctuations are the major threats caused by climate change. This paper analyses the impact of seasonal rainfall fluctuations on rural poverty using panel data for 992 counties, which are located in humid zone in the south of China from 2000 to 2018. The findings are as follows: (1) Rainfall fluctuations significantly affect rural poverty, specifically, increased rainfall significantly alleviates rural poverty in the dry season, but aggravates rural poverty in the rainy season. (2) The effect of rainfall fluctuations on rural poverty is significantly heterogeneous in different regions. (3) Rainfall fluctuations put low-income areas at greater risk of returning to poverty. (4) The mechanism through which rainfall fluctuations affect rural poverty is agricultural production, and market regulation can mitigate the shock of rainfall fluctuations. Our research provides policy implications for developing countries to address the risks of poverty from climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"633-656"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43773620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Investment and the long swings of unemployment","authors":"Hian Teck Hoon, Margarita Katsimi, Gylfi Zoega","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12350","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12350","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate the medium-term relationship between investment and unemployment over the period 1960–2017 in 20 OECD countries, a period that includes the years of the Great Recession. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment—with no effect of investment on unemployment—and New-Keynesian models assume that such a relationship only exists in the short term at business cycle frequencies, we find that over our sample period covering more than 5 decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: in decades when investment fell, unemployment increased. Panel estimation, using a measure of stock market volatility as an instrument for investment, confirms the negative relationship between investment and unemployment. High stock market volatility and low investment are associated with high unemployment, other things equal. The evidence supports both Keynes' ideas about an unemployment equilibrium as well as more recent investment-based theories of the natural rate of unemployment.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"611-632"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41610002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of dismantling state monopoly on market integration: Evidence from the edible salt reform in China","authors":"Xinyu Hou, Puyang Sun","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12349","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12349","url":null,"abstract":"<p>State monopoly hinders market integration through rising interregional trade barriers. This article provides an account of the market reform on dismantling state monopoly as a natural experiment to investigate the extent to which the reform affects domestic market integration. The state monopoly on China's edible salt market was dismantled by implementing a market reform on the first of January 2017 that terminated the 2000-year state monopoly on edible salt. Using a set of unique retailing price datasets on edible salt across cities over 10-day periods every month, we take advantage of the regional and temporal variances of edible salt retailing price between origins of production and other cities to demonstrate market integration nationwide in China. The regression discontinuity estimation is leveraged based on an apparently sharp discontinuity in inter-city price differences. The results suggest that the dissolution of state monopoly on edible salt market leads to a 3.14 percent decrease in price differences of edible salt between origins and other cities, thus ultimately resulting in the promoted market integration. The results also suggest that the varied iodine contents in edible salt, the market power of state-owned enterprises and the government-firm relationships exert promising roles in the influence.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"589-609"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46636777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public governance and firm total factor productivity: Evidence from a quasi-natural event in China","authors":"Maoyong Cheng, Zhenjun Li","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12348","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12348","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Employing a quasi-natural event, that is, gangdom and evil forces (GEs) elimination in China, we examine how public governance proxied by GEs elimination affects firm total factor productivity (TFP) using data on Chinese-listed firms between 2009 and 2020. Our findings show that GEs elimination significantly reduces firm TFP through two complementary channels: increase in environmental uncertainty and the weakening of the protective umbrella. We also reveal that the effects of GEs elimination on firm TFP are more prominent in SOEs and in firms exposed to weaker media attention. Our main results pass a series of robustness and endogeneity checks. We provide clear policy implications to regulators by identifying firm-level evidence.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"683-719"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41952775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Political uncertainty and foreign direct investment—Evidence from the government official vacancy in China's cities","authors":"Maoyong Cheng, Yutong Yao, Yu Meng","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12347","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12347","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study focuses on a new political uncertainty phenomenon, that is, the government official vacancy, and examines its effects on foreign direct investment in China's cities. Using hand-collected data about the vacancies of the municipal party secretary in China from 2003 to 2018, we find that the government official vacancy reduces foreign direct investment. A one unit (month) increase in the government official vacancy leads to a −2.225% decrease in foreign direct investment. Second, we show three possible channels through which the government official vacancy reduces foreign direct investment: reducing government efficiency, increasing economic policy uncertainty and increasing corruption. Finally, our results show that the effects of government official vacancies on foreign direct investment are stronger in cities with a strong media environment, cities with a low level of innovation and entrepreneurship and cities in the middle region of China. Our main results pass a series of robustness tests. Overall, our research offers novel evidence that political uncertainty has a negative impact on foreign direct investment.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 3","pages":"527-559"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42094683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do terms of trade affect economic growth? Robust evidence from India","authors":"Tarlok Singh","doi":"10.1111/ecot.12339","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecot.12339","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study extends the previous empirics and conducts a comprehensive analysis of the effects of terms of trade (TOT) on economic growth in the large and emerging market economy, India, which experienced tremendous transformation from a persistently low-growth economy in the 1950s–1970s to a moderate-growth economy in the 1980s and then to a high-growth economy, following the onset of inclusive economic reforms from the beginning 1990s. The TOT remained unfavourable during the 1950s, witnessed boom during the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, showed sharp downturn during the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, and then displayed deteriorations again from the late 1990s to 2017–2018. The model estimated in one-regime setting with no structural break and in a sample-split setting with multiple structural breaks—over both “<i>long</i>” and “<i>short</i>” time periods—supports the presence of cointegration among variables and suggests the positive and significant long-run effects of TOT on economic growth. The diversification of trade, the continual improvements in the quality of export products, and the development of high value-added industries are essentially crucial to induce long-term improvements in TOT. The improvements in TOT need to be accompanied by the development of financial sector, expansion of external trade, and acceleration of domestic investment.</p>","PeriodicalId":40265,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition and Institutional Change","volume":"31 2","pages":"491-521"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecot.12339","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42669911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}