Sustainable growth through industrial robot diffusion: Quasi-experimental evidence from a Bartik shift-share design

While the diffusion of industrial robots has had a significant impact on the economy and society, more research is needed to understand how robots contribute to sustainable growth. This study uses paired data on China's county-level carbon emissions and industrial robot installations from 2008 to 2017, employing a Bartik shift-share instrumental variable design to estimate the economic and sustainable effects of industrial robot diffusion. The study finds that industrial robots significantly promote economic growth and contribute to carbon emission reduction as confirmed by robust IV 2SLS and general PSM-DID methods. Additionally, a heterogeneity analysis shows that industrial robots have a stronger impact on sustainable growth in underdeveloped and small-medium cities, especially in low-skilled industries. Finally, the study identifies industrial structural change, clean energy use, and improved productivity and innovation as key factors that mediate the impact of industrial robots on sustainable development.