MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.最新文献

{"title":"Effective user interface and user experience design for disaster-related applications: A review","authors":"Yanisa Bhishitcharoentat, Kumpol Saengtabtim, N. Leelawat, Jing Tang","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.bhisitcharoentat","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.bhisitcharoentat","url":null,"abstract":": Designing a good user interface in disaster-related applications is crucial to enable users to access and understand how to use the applications quickly in case of an emergency. As stated in multiple novel literatures, there still needed for improvement based on the concept of designing User Interface (UI) and User Experience (UX). Therefore, adapting the current UI based on practical guidelines and keeping up to date with the current design is essential. This research’s literature review was performed to define the effective design for the user interface for disaster-related applications. The research articles related to the UI design from Scopus and Google Scholar were reviewed. The search keywords include (“User Interface” OR “User Experience”) AND (“Application”) AND (“Disaster”). The findings found that the effective way to design UI for disaster-related applications is to make it as user-friendly as possible. The design can help the victims to act and respond quickly during emergencies. In addition, it also needs to be created based on user-centric design principles. Three main aspects can be extracted from the two mentioned principles to support the designing process: (1) developing a set of design guidelines and mock-ups to address the identified usability issues significantly improved the usability and user satisfaction of the application (Kureerung et al. 2022; Molich 1994); (2) the icons, such as the alert button or the button that represent each feature, should be clear and easy to understand (Romano et al., 2016). And (3) a user-friendly and user-centered should be developed (Molich 1994; Rudiastuti et al. 2020; Suzianti","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126076068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"War, pandemic, and stock performance: A case of artificial intelligence�adopting firms","authors":"L. Ho, C. Gan, S. Jin, B. Le","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.ho16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.ho16","url":null,"abstract":": Firm performance is affected by extreme events including war and pandemic. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic weakened the performance of stock markets worldwide. Two years later, on 24 February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war started and took a toll on the world economy, pushed up inflation, and increased the risk of severe adverse outcomes. There is a growing number of studies on the severity of stock market responses to the pandemic and the war in different regions and economies. The enormous increase in economic uncertainty has taught business executives valuable lessons about digital transformation and innovation. The IBM Artificial Intelligence (AI) Adoption Index shows a steady increase in global adoption of AI. However, studies regarding the impacts of the war and pandemic on AI-adopting firms are relatively new and scant. Using data of 231 AI-adopting firms worldwide in developed and emerging markets from January 2013 to April 2022, this paper examines how AI stocks respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. We employ the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimation of linear dynamic panel-data model estimation to estimate the firm, market, and extreme event effects on the AI stock performance. Understanding the impacts of different determinants on the success or failure of AI adoption will support firms and investors to manage risks and investment portfolios for sustainable performance. The results show that AI stocks respond to different extreme events differently. The performance of AI-adopting firms is not severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is more severe than the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. AI-adopting firms in developed markets outperform those in emerging markets when the war broke out. In emerging markets, large firms benefit more from adopting AI in business than small firms.","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114214023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimising the unpredictability of a ballistic missile","authors":"E. Comino, J. Ogilvie, M. King, H. Lourey, J. Wharington","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.comino","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.comino","url":null,"abstract":": Modern missile threats employ a variety of techniques to defeat countermeasures. Hence, to understand missile capabilities, it is necessary to comprehend the impact of evasion behaviours on missile performance. The general forms of such behaviours are presented in literature (Li et al. 2015), but it is without revealing their detriment on performance. This motivated relating evasion behaviours to mathematical objectives that promote evasion and revealing the interdependencies between evasion and performance. This capability can be used to predict optimal behaviours given relative importance of performance measures. Preliminary investigation is concerned with guidance that attempts to minimise the ability of an observer to predict the target location. More specifically, if many possible range targets share an initially common route, the true target may be disguised. We modelled a ballistic glide projectile in two dimensions on a flat Earth using arbitrary parameters and three degrees of freedom. The projectile is subject to aerodynamic drag and lift forces controllable via angle of attack, and to constraints applied on the maximum lift coefficient and angular rates. The Pyomo differential algebraic equations (DAE) (Sandia National Laboratories 2017) framework was used to represent the model as a constrained nonlinear optimisation problem, where the dynamics are discretised by finite differences with boundary conditions applied to both initial and final states. Modelling the projectile involved formulating a set of two-stage flight paths, where each trajectory shares the initial path before branching off to reach a different target range. This allows us to minimise the total time taken to reach the target in addition to the times for which the vehicle strays from the common path. Weighting these times facilitates adjustment of the relative value between having a long-shared initial stage and the capability to target vaster ranges.","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116065941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Redesigning a nutrient model to enable faster model development","authors":"N. Huth, D. Holzworth","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.huth","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.huth","url":null,"abstract":": Farming systems modelling is a well-established science and an important tool for analysing complex farming systems problems. An ability to model the major components of a farming system lies at the core of this approach. As a result, accurate and effective modelling of important Soil Organic Matter (SOM) stocks and processes is important in many applications of Farming Systems Models. These include various SOM and mineral pools, flows of carbon and nutrients between these pools, and losses from these processes. The SoilNitrogen model within APSIM (Holzworth et al, 2018) provides such a capability. Many researchers using the SoilNitrogen model have explored changes for improving model performance. Such efforts include i) changes in the number of soil pools, ii) flows between these pools, iii) functional forms used in calculating flows, and iv) parameters values used in these functions. However, implementation of such changes was not always straightforward because of the way models were implemented. Though there was some consideration of object-oriented approaches for abstracting the science of carbon and nutrient dynamics into instantiable models, the science was mostly captured using traditional procedural programming approaches in FORTRAN or C#. Though there was a clear conceptual model behind the specification of the model (e.g. pools, flows, algorithms), the use of traditional programming approaches did not reflect this way of thinking. Furthermore, it was difficult for researchers to understand or change model design. We used an approach, already found to be widely successful within APSIM for crops (Brown et al, 2014), to capture the needs of researchers. Classes were developed for pools, flows and functions. Users can alter the number of pools, flows between pools, the functional forms used to calculate flows, and parameter values used in functions. All can be altered via the user interface or command-line tools, thus facilitating alternate model configurations or designs within simulations to compare model structures and parameterisations (ie model comparison). This new functionality is referred to as the APSIM Nutrient model. We","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"742 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116090051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using spatially explicit models to determine seasonal differences in space use and behaviour of feral buffalo in the Northern Territory","authors":"K. Pike, M. Golchin, J. Perry, E. Vanderduys, A. Hoskins","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.pike","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.pike","url":null,"abstract":": Managing feral buffalo in northern Australia has become a formidable challenge. In the Northern Territory, there are over 200,000 Asian water buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis ), and their large and dense population causes a multitude of economic, biosecurity, cultural, and environmental problems (Collier et al., 2011; Robinson and Whitehead, 2003). Traditional Owners, environmental managers, and landowners, thus need to know where buffalo are in the landscape and what they are doing to adequately manage and mitigate these issues. However, due to the remoteness of buffalo inhabited areas there is limited infrastructure and access available, and the buffalo’s large size and aggressive nature make them very difficult to observe and manage in the wild. Advances in Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking technology allows managers to safely collect high frequency, remotely sensed data on animal locations in space and time that overcome some of the issues of working in logistically challenging locations. The next challenge then becomes extracting ecological metrics from these data with appropriate modelling techniques that accounts for the inherent spatio-temporal autocorrelation and restrictions of high frequency data (Calabrese et al., 2016). Here we present a success story of harnessing spatially explicit movement models to understand buffalo movement and social behaviour to provide data-rich decision support to wildlife managers. We used continuous time movement models to produce autocorrelated kernel density estimates of buffalo home ranges and social encounter area from 126,567 locations from 17 buffalo GPS tracked over a 16-month period. We compared the movement, space use, and social behaviour of buffalo between the wet and dry season of the Djelk area, when resource availability is vastly different in the wetlands of the Northern Territory. We found in the dry season, buffalo space use was restricted, and the size of their home range was significantly smaller than in the wet season","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116219886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"We need to talk: The importance of communication in model development and use","authors":"S. Kermode","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.kermode","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.kermode","url":null,"abstract":": Have you ever planned, built, run or applied a model on a project without, at some point, being frustrated that someone (or several people, or entire organisations) just didn’t ‘get it’? I’m yet to encounter such a situation or hear from the community of such an occurrence. Whilst my experiences relate to the fields of environmental science and water resources, issues around communication in modelling are agnostic to the technical field. I’ve also observed that these frustrations carry through the entire process and are experienced by all parties involved. Further, these difficulties add complexity, time and stress to the process, and can throw up genuine barriers to sufficient scoping in the early stages through to mistrust or inappropriate adoptions or interpretations in later stages. Where is it going wrong? Why with increased understanding and focus does it continue to go wrong? How can we course correct? There are elements within the control of this community, but how do we influence other stakeholders to come to the communication party? Water modelling best practice commonly referred to in Australia (Jakeman","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116605169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cross-scale analysis of social-ecological systems: Policy options appraisal for delivering NetZero and other environmental objectives in Scotland","authors":"K. Matthews, K. Blackstock, H. Wardell-Johnson, D. Miller, M. Tavana, S. Thomson, A. Moxey, R. Nielson, N. Baggaley, K. Loades, E. Paterson, R. Pakeman, C. Hawes, J. Stockan, M. Stutter, S. Addy, M. Wilkinson","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.matthews","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.matthews","url":null,"abstract":": Public policy confronts complex, contested, wicked problems such as climate and biodiversity crises with challenges of how issues are framed, analysed, codified, and interpreted. Social-ecological systems provide an analytical framework that couples the biosphere and technosphere, recognising biophysical limits and emphasising the importance of critical reflection within policy decision-making. Conducting policy-options appraisals is increasingly seen as a transdisciplinary research-policy endeavour with researchers engaging policy actors in an extended peer community (post-normal science). This paper presents a case study of analysis undertaken with researchers, policy analysts, policy makers and other stakeholders to support decisions on how to implement future agriculture support in Scotland, so that the policy programme better delivers across social, economic and environmental objectives. The key change being considered in the future agricultural support programme is Enhanced Conditionality (EC) where the level of financial support provided to farm-businesses will depend on their undertaking agri-environmental measures that deliver against the key priorities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reversing biodiversity losses. The paper outlines the policy context within which the EC options appraisal takes place – highlighting how EC is a crucial component in making the wider suite of policy measures work. The transdisciplinary approach, Quantitative Story Telling (QST) is presented, emerging from decision support, participatory research, and post-normal science for policy domains. The stages of QST highlight the importance of analysis that underpins any quantification (decision on how issues are framed and what it included in the analysis) and the expectation that research outputs with be deliberated on with, and interpreted from, stakeholder perspectives. The project specific analyses are outlined, combining top-down options appraisal of how macro-policy decisions could constrain EC and bottom-up analysis of potential uptake and effectiveness of EC measures, undertaken in inter-disciplinary workshops with domain experts from biodiversity, soils and waters. The paper highlights challenges for implementation and evaluation at meso-scale with interactions between farm-businesses and catchment, landscape and regional objectives. The conclusions of the analysis, in policy terms, are that EC presents an opportunity to significantly realign how agricultural land management is conducted in Scotland, so that it is more effective in delivering climate change and biodiversity objectives, but there are formidable challenges in resolving the policy “sudoku”. Meso-scale issues are likely to mean the need to integrate alternative modelling paradigms such as spatial, empirical agent-based modelling (ABM) into policy option appraisals. By taking multi-scale, social-ecological systems perspectives on EC it has been possible to identify key policy decisi","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116766559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the impact of open biomass burning on UK air quality","authors":"D. Tan, M. Vieno, E. Nemitz, M. Heal, S. Reis","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.tan177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.tan177","url":null,"abstract":": Wildfires are a fundamental part of the Earth’s ecosystem. However, climate change and other factors such as population and land-use changes are affecting propensities for fire around the globe, posing an increasing risk to humans and the environment. Some regions may become less vulnerable to wildfires, while others are likely to see an increase in wildfire frequency, magnitude and intensity. The latter includes many European regions, where changes have become apparent over the last decades. The UK, categorised as increasingly vulnerable to wildfire, is also likely to see increases in fire danger and duration (Arnell et al. 2021, Perry et al. 2022). A better understanding of the impact of wildfires, and more generally open biomass burning 1 , is therefore crucial to pre-empting and mitigating the impact of wildfires in different environments. The aim here is to gain an overview of the contribution of open biomass burning to UK air quality. While its absolute contribution is small compared to current conventional anthropogenic emissions, its relative contribution will become more important if increasingly stringent air quality targets are to be met in the future. Fine particulate matter (PM 2 . 5 ) is the pollutant considered here, due to its impact on human health and the ambitious new Air Quality Guideline values recently published by the WHO (2021), which include an annual PM 2 . 5 guideline level of 5 µ g m − 3 . The EMEP4UK chemistry transport model (Vieno et al. 2016) is used, over a European domain and a nested UK domain with 3 km x 3 km horizontal resolution. Emissions from open biomass burning are included using the Fire INventory from National Center for Atmospheric Research (FINN) v1.5. We quantify the magnitude of modelled surface concentrations and identify sources contributing to this, distinguishing between contributions from burning within and outwith the UK, and between primary and secondary PM 2 . 5 . We also aim to distinguish between contributions from wildfires and prescribed burning. UK-wide averages and individual episodic events are considered, with comparison to other emission sources and future air quality targets. Comparison of modelled vs observed concentrations of PM 2 . 5 , including detailed speciated particulate matter data, will be undertaken with data from UK air quality supersites","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125164426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent changes in the water and ecological condition at the arid Tarim River Basin","authors":"Weihong Li, C. Zhu, Yapeng Chen","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.li404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.li404","url":null,"abstract":": The Tarim River basin, located in the mid-latitude and extremely arid region of the northern hemisphere, has experienced the most prominent warming during the past few decades. Characterized by scarce water resources and a fragile ecological system, this region is strongly affected by climate change and human activities, which has intensified agricultural water consumption, exacerbated the already-serious water crisis, and aggregated the deterioration of the ecological environment. With the rapid increase in the use of irrigation water, ecological water has been seriously squeezed out, causing large areas of desert vegetation to die. To alleviate deterioration of the ecological environment and promote socio-economic development in the Tarim River Basin, the government initiated the “Comprehensive Control Project of the Tarim River Basin” in June 2001, focusing on water saving in the irrigation area, including reconstruction of plain reservoirs, groundwater exploitation and utilization, ecological reconstruction and construction of mountain reservoirs. Under global warming, the climate has experienced significant warming during 1961–2020, and the most dramatic increase has occurred since the mid-1980s. The temperature increased at a rate of 0.224 ℃ per decade. For precipitation, about 72.3% meteorological stations experienced significant increase, with an average increasing rate of 7.47 mm per decade. The increased precipitation and temperature and the resulted hydrological and ecological changes lead to a hot debate about the “warm-wet” trend. This study systematically investigated the changes in water resources and ecological conditions in the arid Tarim River basin under climate change and human activities. Thanks to the “Comprehensive Control Project”, the groundwater level has been lift, the surface water area has increased, the NPP has increased, and the vegetation carbon sinks also increased for the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Note that the most ecologically beneficiary area from this project is mostly located in the lower reaches of the Tarim River Basin. For the entire basin, the changes in climatic factors dominate the changes in hydrological and ecological processes. Climatic changes cause changes in the accumulation and ablation of snow and glaciers, which resulted in changes in hydrological processes. The total lake area in the Tarim River has expanded at a rate of 23.79 km 2 per year during 2012–2021. The runoffs of the four headwaters (i.e., Kaidu River, Aksu River, Yarkant River, Hotan River) of the Tarim River have also increased by a rate of 2.06×10 8 m 3 , 2.11×10 8 m 3 , 1.12×10 8 m 3 and 2.56×10 8 m 3 per decade, respectively. However, the changes in ecological systems don’t reflect the wetter trend in the Tarim Basin. The negative effects of climate change on the region’s vulnerable ecology have intensified. Potential evaporation decreased at a rate of 41.66 mm/10a per decade prior to the mid-1990s, and inversed to in","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"40 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114024050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is behind-the-meter solar an effective way to improve water distribution system resilience?","authors":"Jiayu Yao, Wenyan Wu, A. Simpson, B. Rismanchi","doi":"10.36334/modsim.2023.yao238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.yao238","url":null,"abstract":": A water distribution system (WDS) is a vital component of water infrastructure systems. The pump operation in pressurised WDSs usually consumes significant electricity. To reduce pumping-related cost and environmental impact, behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (BTM solar PV) system is becoming an increasingly popular additional source of energy supply for WDSs. The integration of the BTM solar PV system to WDSs is complex, requiring the consideration of the interaction between the WDS and the solar PV system. Moreover, future changes in water demand and solar PV technology development in terms of unit cost and conversion efficiency further complicate the design of WDSs integrating BTM solar. This research aims to investigate the impact of long-term changes in water demand and solar PV technology development on the co-design of WDSs integrating BTM solar considering system performance in terms of the life cycle cost and grid energy consumption. In this study, future water demand is assumed to change between -30% to +100% in the next 60 years. Three solar PV technology development conditions are considered: the baseline condition (T const. ) with the current unit cost and conversion efficiency, the conventional technology (T conv. ) resulting in a moderate reduction in unit cost and increase in conversion efficiency, and the advanced technology (T adv. ) resulting in a larger reduction in unit cost and rapid increase in conversion efficiency. In total 15 scenarios considering the different changes in water demand and solar PV technology development have been developed to represent future uncertainty. The integrated system has been optimised under each scenario, and the performance of the design is evaluated across all scenarios. The performance distribution of 3 specific designs obtained under three scenarios with the demand change by +30% and the 3 different solar PV technology development conditions is illustrated in Fig.1: Design 1 from T const. , Design 2 from T conv. , and Design 3 from T adv. , respectively. Results show that the potential development in BTM solar technology, i.e., future improvements in the unit cost and conversion efficiency, has a limited impact on the sizing of the pipes and pumps of WDSs. However, the changes in water demand will have a significant impact on the optimal sizing of WDSs. The higher the demand growth, the larger the sizes of pipes and pumps are expected. It is evident from Figure 1 that for the same WDS, more advanced development in solar PV technology leads to more consistent performance (i.e., the narrowed range of values) in terms of cost. More importantly, it leads to much lower grid energy consumed, as well as more consistent energy performance across various water demand conditions. The integration of solar PV systems into WDSs helps to reduce the risk of oversizing WDSs by improving the energy performance of WDSs under changing water demand conditions. The results also highlight the opportunity of","PeriodicalId":390064,"journal":{"name":"MODSIM2023, 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122926770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}