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Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks 全球粮食商品冲击的产出效应
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2018-06-26 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2018-0011
Bilge Erten, Kerem Tuzcuoglu
{"title":"Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks","authors":"Bilge Erten, Kerem Tuzcuoglu","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2018-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2018-0011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The dramatic fluctuations in global food prices over the past two decades have generated significant concern about their destabilizing macroeconomic effects. While the pass-through effects of international food prices on domestic prices have been widely documented, these estimates have not taken into account reverse causality, omitted variable bias, or differences in sources of international food price fluctuations. We use sign restrictions to identify relevant demand and supply shocks that explain the volatility in global food prices. We quantify their dynamic effects on several components of food exporters’ and food importers’ domestic output, including household consumption, government consumption, investment, and net exports. Our findings reveal that identifying the sources of the shocks driving global food prices is crucial to evaluating their domestic effects. Expansions in global economic activity that increase global food prices stimulate the domestic output of both food-importing and food-exporting economies; however, disruptions in global food commodity markets that lead to rising real food prices have large contractionary effects for food importers due to deteriorating trade balances and falling household consumption. We also document that the adverse effects of unfavorable global food shocks on household consumption are greater for food-importing countries with relatively high shares of household food expenditures and large food trade deficits.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2018-0011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46644922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Understanding Investor Behavior in the Recent Global Land Rush 了解近期全球土地热潮中的投资者行为
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2018-06-26 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2018-0001
A. Rosete
{"title":"Understanding Investor Behavior in the Recent Global Land Rush","authors":"A. Rosete","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2018-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2018-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A sharp rise in land acquisitions in developing countries during the last decade has drawn the attention of scholars and think tanks. Recent empirical literature finds that investors acquiring land tend to target countries that have little regard for local land rights. This is a puzzle. By locating in such countries, investors may be foregoing other advantages that generate more revenue. In this paper, I provide an explanation of investor behavior using a game-theoretic model where investors can use expropriation as a credible threat vis a vis smallholders. I show that the credible threat of expropriation lowers the investor’s cost of locating to a country by reducing the necessary remuneration to smallholders for access to land, resulting in adverse incorporation. Further, I demonstrate that investors will locate in countries with weak land governance whenever they anticipate similar levels of revenue or investor protection.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2018-0001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44211272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Foreign debt, conflicting claims and income policies in a Kaleckian model of growth and distribution Kaleckian增长和分配模型中的外债、相互冲突的债权和收入政策
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2018-06-26 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2018-0004
P. Bortz, Gabriel Michelena, Fernando Toledo
{"title":"Foreign debt, conflicting claims and income policies in a Kaleckian model of growth and distribution","authors":"P. Bortz, Gabriel Michelena, Fernando Toledo","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2018-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2018-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper develops a Kaleckian model of growth with endogenous income distribution, determined by conflicting claims on income shares. The article analyzes different demand, distribution and debt regimes, with external debt playing a differential role according to its impact on the exchange rate and on debt-servicing. We further study the impact of a tax-based income policy on the exchange-rate pass-through and external competitiveness. We find that the threat of taxation (or subsidies) can serve as an instrument to coordinate income claims, lower inflationary pressures and improve external price competitiveness.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2018-0004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43148606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Follow the Money: Remittance Responses to FDI Inflows 追踪资金:汇款对FDI流入的反应
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2017-0023
Michael Coon, Rebecca Neumann
{"title":"Follow the Money: Remittance Responses to FDI Inflows","authors":"Michael Coon, Rebecca Neumann","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2017-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2017-0023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Migrant networks are an important catalyst for promoting FDI flows between countries. Migrants also send increasingly large remittances to their home countries. This paper considers how these two capital flows are related, specifically examining how remittance flows respond to the amount of FDI inflows to a country. Using a panel of 118 countries over 1980–2010, we estimate a random effects model and find a positive and significant effect of FDI flows on remittances, while controlling for other standard determinants of remittance flows. We account for the potential endogeneity of FDI to remittances by utilizing a two-stage Instrumental Variables approach. These findings suggest that FDI complements remittances, rather than crowding out emigrant investment to the home countries. We find the relationship is strongest for low income countries, highlighting the importance of remittances as a source of investment capital in these countries.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2017-0023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44984505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Socioeconomic Driving Forces of International Migration 国际移民的社会经济驱动力
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2017-0017
Dennis Wesselbaum
{"title":"Socioeconomic Driving Forces of International Migration","authors":"Dennis Wesselbaum","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2017-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2017-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper makes a contribution to the literature on the driving forces of international migration. In contrast to the existing literature we consider the effect of socioeconomic variables (population dynamics, education and health, and openness) on migration flows. Especially the effects of openness of a society have not received much attention in the scientific debate.We use a panel data set of bilateral migration flows between 16 destination and 198 origin countries over the time span from 1980 to 2015. Most importantly, we find that our socioeconomic variables significantly affect the migration decision. Including socioeconomic variables does affect the size of the effects of the commonly used variables in the literature.Further, we find robust evidence that the socioeconomic variables at hand have non-linear effects on migration. For example, we find that the effect of human capital on migration follows an inverted U-shaped pattern.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2017-0017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43776036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On Comprehensively Intermediate Measures of Inequality and Poverty, with an Illustrative Application to Global Data 关于不平等和贫困的综合中间测量，以及对全球数据的说明性应用
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2017-12-20 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2017-0027
S. Subramanian
{"title":"On Comprehensively Intermediate Measures of Inequality and Poverty, with an Illustrative Application to Global Data","authors":"S. Subramanian","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2017-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2017-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The dominant convention in the measurement of inequality and poverty is to employ scale-invariant and replication-invariant measures, that is, measures that are thoroughgoingly relative. This is a routine feature of both the theoretical and applied literature in the area, despite weighty arguments that have been advanced by certain practitioners in favor of centrist measures which avoid the “extreme” values of both income-relative and income-absolute measures. The present paper extends these arguments in favor of measures which are both income-centrist and population centrist. A comprehensively centrist Gini coefficient of inequality is proposed, and likewise a comprehensively centrist class of poverty measures which are counterparts of the well-known Foster-Greer Thorbecke class of relative poverty measures. It is suggested that our diagnosis of the problems of inequality and poverty is likely to be a profoundly variable function of the precise types of inequality and poverty measures we employ in order to assess the magnitudes and trends of the phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2017-0027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41821596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Sensitivity of Purchasing Power Parity Estimates to Estimation Procedures and their Effect on Living Standards Comparisons 购买力平价估计对估计程序的敏感性及其对生活水平比较的影响
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2017-10-25 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2017-0006
A. Majumder, R. Ray, Sattwik Santra
{"title":"Sensitivity of Purchasing Power Parity Estimates to Estimation Procedures and their Effect on Living Standards Comparisons","authors":"A. Majumder, R. Ray, Sattwik Santra","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2017-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2017-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The motivation of this exercise is to compare the Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) calculated using different procedures and study the sensitivity of global rankings of regions based on living standards to the PPPs used. The empirical comparison involves the GEKS, weighted CPD, GK, EWGK and the True Cost of Living Index (TCLI) based PPP estimation procedures with the Indian Rupee used as the numeraire currency. The published ICP PPPs for 2011 are used as benchmark for the non ICP PPPs obtained in this study. Evidence confirming the “Gershenkeron effect,” that affects the additive GK procedure, is provided. The results suggest that the EWGK PPPs, which are also additive, do not suffer from the extent of bias of the GK PPPs. The paper also provides evidence on the large variation in the TCLI based PPPs across expenditure quintiles originating from variation in preferences between expenditure classes. This suggests departure from the current ICP practice of providing one PPP for the entire country and points to the need to estimate PPPs by different expenditure classes. The empirical evidence points to the rich potential for the rarely used TCLI in future PPP calculations.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2017-0006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48979578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
New Approaches to Identifying State Fragility 识别国家脆弱性的新方法
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2017-01-27 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2017-0008
Gary J. Milante, M. Woolcock
{"title":"New Approaches to Identifying State Fragility","authors":"Gary J. Milante, M. Woolcock","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2017-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2017-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We offer an alternative approach to the identification of state fragility – and in turn an alternative foundation for fragility assessment. Current practice relies almost exclusively on a single aggregate metric updated annually, uninformed by change or rate of change in the metrics. Our alternative proposes a more pragmatic three-stage process: the use of existing quantitative country assessments to determine relatively clear lower regions of concern and upper bounds beyond which countries are of less concern; a combination of the component elements of the country assessments and history to gage the trajectory of recent change; and qualitative insights drawn from regularly-updated “fragility assessments” to ensure that the idiosyncrasies of each case are taken into account when crafting specific policy and programmatic responses. Our analysis here is based on historical CPIA data complemented by data on violent deaths and displacement, looking ex post at institutional trajectories for IDA countries from 2005 to 2015. The approach we propose is not without its own risks and limitations, but is offered in the spirit of widespread concerns in the development community that prevailing strategies for assessing state fragility have demonstrably reached the limits of their effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2017-0008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48758536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
To Pay or Not to Pay? Evaluating the Belgian Law Against Vulture Funds 付款还是不付款?评估比利时反秃鹫基金法
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2017-0010
Leentje Ann Sourbron, Lode Vereeck
{"title":"To Pay or Not to Pay? Evaluating the Belgian Law Against Vulture Funds","authors":"Leentje Ann Sourbron, Lode Vereeck","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2017-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2017-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Vulture funds are a grave problem for sovereign debt markets. Their uncooperative behavior delays the resolution of sovereign debt crises, inflicting harm on the economic health of financially distressed countries and consenting exchange bondholders. The unconventional ratable payment interpretation of the pari passu clause has strengthened their legal position. Various strategic, contractual, national and international remedies have so far proven ineffective. The most recent initiative, the Belgian Law Against Vulture Funds, establishes a variant of champerty by granting vulture funds nothing more than the purchase price, while allowing countries under attack of vulture funds to make payments to exchange bondholders via clearing houses in Belgium without the risk of attachment. This paper describes the Belgian anti-vultures law and its implications. We claim this law goes in the direction of improving the workings of sovereign debt markets. However, the Belgian bypass may lead to contempt of court in other jurisdictions, making it a costly and risky option for distressed countries. To be effective, the Belgian law should be part of a multilateral convention or adopted in other countries as a model law. Either way, it proves the need of an international framework.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2017-0010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66940333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Indirect Tax Reform in Developing Countries: A Consumption-Neutral Approach 发展中国家间接税改革:一种消费中性的方法
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2016-0036
Takumi Haibara
{"title":"Indirect Tax Reform in Developing Countries: A Consumption-Neutral Approach","authors":"Takumi Haibara","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2016-0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2016-0036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract M. Shahe Emran and Joseph E. Stiglitz [Emran, M. S., and J. E. Stiglitz. 2005. “On Selective Indirect Tax Reform in Developing Countries.” Journal of Public Economics 89: 599–623] demonstrate that a revenue-neutral indirect tax reform, in which value-added tax (VAT) is increased to compensate for any revenue loss from tariff cuts, reduces welfare because of the strong substitutability in consumption between formal and informal commodities. This paper reconsiders this result, showing that indirect tax reform, if designed in a consumption-neutral fashion, improves welfare, even under strong substitutability, and discusses the revenue and distributional implications of the proposed reform.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1515/jgd-2016-0036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66939964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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