Journal of Globalization and Development最新文献

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What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data 什么可以预测小公司的增长?坦桑尼亚商业贷款数据的证据
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w31620
Mia Ellis, Cynthia Kinnan, Margaret McMillan, Sarah Shaukat
{"title":"What Predicts the Growth of Small Firms? Evidence from Tanzanian Commercial Loan Data","authors":"Mia Ellis, Cynthia Kinnan, Margaret McMillan, Sarah Shaukat","doi":"10.3386/w31620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w31620","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Not all firms have equal capacity to absorb productive credit. Identifying those with higher potential may have large consequences for productivity. We collect detailed survey data on small- and medium-sized Tanzanian firms who borrow from a large commercial bank, which in turn raises funds via international capital markets. Using machine learning methods to identify predictors of loan growth, we document, first, that we achieve high rates of predictive power. Second, “soft” information (entrepreneurs’ motivations for entrepreneurship and constraints faced) has predictive power over and above administrative data (sector, age, etc.). Third, there is a different and larger set of predictors for women than men, consistent with greater barriers to efficient capital allocation among female entrepreneurs.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46145196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Addressing Balance of Payment Disequilibrium Through Non-Oil Export and Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation 通过非石油出口和尼日利亚汇率稳定解决国际收支失衡:一项实证调查
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2022-0026
C. Agu, D. Obodoechi, I. K. Nebo
{"title":"Addressing Balance of Payment Disequilibrium Through Non-Oil Export and Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation","authors":"C. Agu, D. Obodoechi, I. K. Nebo","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2022-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2022-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment between 1981 and 2020. To achieve the broad objective, two specific objectives were set out, viz: investigate the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment; and examine the level of impact of exchange rate volatility on balance of payment in Nigeria. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), the findings of the study show that non-oil exports have had a strong positive impact on Nigeria’s balance of payment within the period under study both in the short and long-run. It shows that a percentage increase in non-oil export increases the balance of payment (surplus) by 31.47 % in the long-run. However, exchange rate was shown to have had a negative blow on Nigeria’s balance of payment, though not statistically significant. The study therefore recommend among others that, for Nigeria to enjoy a surplus balance of payment, which is one of her major macroeconomic goals, there is the need to shift attention to the non-oil sector which has always been the main source of her foreign exchange earnings prior to the discovery of crude oil.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45208677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Frontmatter 头版头条
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2023-frontmatter1
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2023-frontmatter1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2023-frontmatter1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135096210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Non-tariff Measures and Regulatory Alignment in a North-South Context: Assessing Compliance Costs for Tunisian Agriculture under the EU-Tunisia Free Trade Agreement (ALECA) 南北背景下的非关税措施和监管调整:评估欧盟-突尼斯自由贸易协定(ALECA)下突尼斯农业的合规成本
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0044
Bernhard Tröster, Rudiger von Arnim, W. Raza, Jihen Chandoul, Chafik Ben Rouine
{"title":"Non-tariff Measures and Regulatory Alignment in a North-South Context: Assessing Compliance Costs for Tunisian Agriculture under the EU-Tunisia Free Trade Agreement (ALECA)","authors":"Bernhard Tröster, Rudiger von Arnim, W. Raza, Jihen Chandoul, Chafik Ben Rouine","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0044","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) are usually defined as trade costs. Their reduction through regulatory alignment increases trade and could thus be beneficial for countries concerned. NTMs include any regulations at and behind the border (i.e. domestic regulations) that may have an impact on trade. This view of NTMs does not account for potential benefits on public policy goals, welfare, value addition and trade flows. Further, asymmetrical NTM alignment between countries with strongly divergent regulatory standards will cause adjustment and compliance costs. Here we integrate the effects of compliance costs for producers emerging from regulatory alignment into the ‘ÖFSE Global Trade’ model. We use the ongoing negotiations on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Tunisia (ALECA) to empirically assess the compliance costs for Tunisian agricultural producers to align to EU standards and model potential economic impacts. Scenario designs for our simulation analysis build on firm surveys. Results show that North-South trade agreements with asymmetrical regulatory alignment involve substantial adjustment costs for Southern producers and lead to losses in exports, value-added and employment, resulting in high economic and social costs that need to be weighed by policy-makers against any perceived long run gains from regulatory alignment.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45191228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Impact of Data Exclusivity on the Price of Pharmaceutical Imports 数据排他性对药品进口价格影响的评估
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0016
Michael Palmedo
{"title":"Evaluating the Impact of Data Exclusivity on the Price of Pharmaceutical Imports","authors":"Michael Palmedo","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Data exclusivity is a form of intellectual property (IP) protection that restricts competition by preventing generic firms from relying on originator test results to win regulatory approval. It is a TRIPS-Plus intellectual property provision often required by Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This study analyses the impact of data exclusivity on aggregated pharmaceutical import prices in a set of 16 countries that enacted data exclusivity as required by FTAs, and six comparator countries that had not introduced this type of IP protection. It uses a difference in differences methodology appropriate for datasets in which treatment occurs at different periods, and in which treatment affects are heterogeneous over time. Between 1996 and 2014, pharmaceutical import prices were 14–20% higher on average in countries that had enacted data exclusivity than those that had not. Since these laws only applied to products entering the market after their enactment, their impact took time to become apparent. It eventually became quite large. The first statistically significant difference in prices occurred seven years after countries introduced data exclusivity. Nine years after these changes, the price differences averaged 175–210%.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"0 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42431763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Labor Skill, Trade and Capital Intensity, and the Fall of Manufacturing Real Wages: Panel Evidence from Mexican Industries 劳动技能、贸易和资本密集度与制造业实际工资的下降:来自墨西哥工业的小组证据
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0053
Carlos A Ibarra
{"title":"Labor Skill, Trade and Capital Intensity, and the Fall of Manufacturing Real Wages: Panel Evidence from Mexican Industries","authors":"Carlos A Ibarra","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper studies the fall in manufacturing real wages that took place in Mexico after the China shock of 2001. It shows, first, that the wage reductions reflected a significant transmission of the China shock, plus a weak link between labor-productivity and real-wage growth; and second, that the weight of these two factors was conditioned by the skill level of workers and the trade and capital intensity of industries in Mexico. Thus, while the China shock hit harder medium and high-skilled workers in capital-intensive industries, the weak link between productivity and wage growth affected more the low-skilled in trade-intensive industries. Results come from the estimation of wage equations by skill level for an annual panel of 20 manufacturing industries at NAICS three-digit level, for different periods but focusing on 1996–2017 (the NAFTA period) and 2003–2017 (the post-China shock period).","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"0 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42367726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Overcoming Original Sin 克服原罪
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0055
H. Shin, Goetz von Peter
{"title":"Overcoming Original Sin","authors":"H. Shin, Goetz von Peter","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0055","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper draws on newly expanded BIS government bond statistics to document how emerging market sovereigns have reduced their reliance on foreign currency denominated bonds since the emerging market crises of the 1990s. With external funding still important for emerging market governments, they have increasingly been able to borrow from foreign investors in their domestic currency. In this respect, emerging market governments are overcoming “Original Sin”. The flipside of these developments is that foreign investors increasingly bear the currency risk associated with fluctuations in emerging market exchange rates, making foreign investors’ portfolio decisions more sensitive to prevailing global financial conditions. Emerging markets thus remain vulnerable to reversals of investor sentiment in bond markets, whether or not they have outstanding debt in foreign currency.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"13 1","pages":"411 - 433"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42837048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
On the Potential of Sovereign State-Contingent Debt in Contributing to Better Public Debt Management and Enhancing Sustainability Outcomes 论主权国家或有债务在促进更好的公共债务管理和提高可持续性成果方面的潜力
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0071
Ulrich Volz
{"title":"On the Potential of Sovereign State-Contingent Debt in Contributing to Better Public Debt Management and Enhancing Sustainability Outcomes","authors":"Ulrich Volz","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0071","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Sovereign state-contingent instruments (SCDIs) have been suggested as complements or alternatives to traditional sovereign debt instruments for a long time, but with little uptake. Markets for SCDIs have suffered from low liquidity and issues around measurement. This article argues that the escalating climate and ecological crises provide a strong rationale to reconsider the use of sovereign SCDIs as the physical and transition impacts of climate change and environmental degradation are increasingly altering the risk profile of sovereigns. The use of risk-linked sovereign instruments such as cat bonds or resilience bonds and embedding disaster risk clauses in sovereign debt contracts would be an important way for governments, especially in highly climate-vulnerable countries, to mitigate climate risks and scale up investment in resilience. Moreover, instruments such as sustainability-linked bonds that incentivise sustainability-oriented policies and investments could help to bring about better sustainability outcomes and contribute to greater debt sustainability. SCDIs can also play an important role in facilitating debt restructurings. The international community, supported by key institutions like the IMF and the major multilateral development banks, should make a concerted effort to promote the widespread adoption of sovereign SCDIs to support better public debt management, the climate-proofing of public finances, and the achievement of more ambitious sustainability outcomes.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"13 1","pages":"379 - 409"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48018159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Sovereign Debt Restructuring: The Way Forward 主权债务重组:前进之路
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2022-11-10 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0070
M. Xafa
{"title":"Sovereign Debt Restructuring: The Way Forward","authors":"M. Xafa","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0070","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The timely and orderly resolution of sovereign debt crises has long been a key challenge facing the global financial architecture. The framework for crisis resolution evolved in response to the capital account crises of the 1990s (Mexico, Russia, Southeast Asia), the Argentine crisis of 2001 and its aftermath, and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–9 which morphed into the Euro area debt crisis of 2010–12. Efforts to expedite crisis resolution involved a two-pronged approach, one focusing on IMF policies and lending facilities and the other on ways to overcome the collective action problems involved in restructuring securitized debt. This paper examines these efforts in the context of the crises that triggered them and provides some guidance for the future. It argues that the way forward involves action on several fronts, including restoration of the essential principle that IMF programs should aim at reaching a manageable debt position within the program period with a high probability.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"13 1","pages":"435 - 474"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44167819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Political Economy of Bilateral Lending from Emerging Creditors 新兴债权国双边贷款的政治经济学
Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.1515/jgd-2021-0049
Pippa Morgan
{"title":"The Political Economy of Bilateral Lending from Emerging Creditors","authors":"Pippa Morgan","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A paucity of data has thus far made systematic comparative analysis of emerging bilateral creditors a major challenge. In this study I take advantage of new World Bank data on the sovereign creditors of low- and middle-income countries to map the distribution of lending from the key emerging bilateral official creditors during the 21st century, focusing on the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). I then statistically analyze the political and economic factors that drive BRICs’ lending and investigate whether their motivations and terms are different from each other and from “traditional” creditors. The results suggest that concerns about the BRICs using bilateral credit as a foreign policy tool may be overblown. Instead, BRICs official loan commitments are driven by their trading ties with borrowers, and are complements to rather than substitutes for traditional lenders. However, the results also show that countries which borrow proportionately more from the BRICs face significantly less concessional terms on their official external debts compared to borrowing from traditional OECD lenders. Given the growing importance of emerging bilateral creditors, systematic comparative understanding of their motives and behavior has substantial policy relevance, in particular amid COVID-19 induced economic distress across much of the developing world.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"13 1","pages":"305 - 338"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47077388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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