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Housing equity and household consumption in retirement: evidence from the Singapore Life Panel© 住房公平与退休家庭消费：来自新加坡人寿保险委员会的证据©
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-11-11 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1842794
Lipeng Chen, Liang Jiang, S. Phang, Jun Yu
{"title":"Housing equity and household consumption in retirement: evidence from the Singapore Life Panel©","authors":"Lipeng Chen, Liang Jiang, S. Phang, Jun Yu","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1842794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842794","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Housing affordability for elderly homeowners involves an entirely different set of issues as compared to housing affordability for first-time homeowners. To afford to ‘age-in-place’ may require homeowners to access channels that enable them to withdraw their housing equity to finance consumption in retirement. We utilize data from the Singapore Life Panel© survey to empirically investigate the impact of housing equity on the consumption of elderly households. Based on panel analysis, we find housing equity value has no significant impact on non-durable consumption for elderly people. The conclusion holds for a battery of robustness checks. Moreover, heterogeneity analyses based on subsamples by the health condition, the age of household head, the house type, and the number of properties owned also show no significant impact of housing equity on consumption. Finally, we use scenario analysis to study the Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS), a novel housing equity monetization scheme that allows elderly households to unlock housing equity for retirement financing. An individual scenario analysis reveals positive but negligible effects, which may explain the low take-up rate for the LBS.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"124 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842794","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43184162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of New Zealand COVID-19疫情预测:以新西兰为例
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-11-06 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1842795
P. Ho, T. Lubik, C. Matthes
{"title":"Forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of New Zealand","authors":"P. Ho, T. Lubik, C. Matthes","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1842795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842795","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We estimate a statistical model for COVID-19 cases and deaths in New Zealand. New Zealand is an important test case for statistical and theoretical research into the dynamics of the global pandemic since it went through a full cycle of infections. We choose functional forms for infections and deaths that incorporate important features of epidemiological models but allow for flexible parameterization to capture different trajectories of the pandemic. Our Bayesian estimation reveals that the simple statistical framework we employ fits the data well and allows for a transparent characterization of the uncertainty surrounding the trajectories of infections and deaths.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"9 - 16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842795","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46316135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Macroprudential policy uncertainty and implications for leaning against the wind 宏观审慎政策的不确定性及其对逆风倾斜的影响
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1827015
C. Davies
{"title":"Macroprudential policy uncertainty and implications for leaning against the wind","authors":"C. Davies","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1827015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827015","url":null,"abstract":"I consider whether imperfect macroprudential policy can be ‘improved’ upon by a monetary policy of leaning against the wind. Imperfect macroprudential policy is captured by instrument uncertainty, which leads to tentative and under-responsive macroprudential policy, and model uncertainty, which leads to excessive and over-reactive macroprudential policy. Leaning against the wind by the central bank improves the macroprudential regulator’s policy rule if the impact of model uncertainty is stronger than the impact of instrument uncertainty. Such a policy may therefore be pursued in jurisdictions where the macroprudential regulator has low risk-sensitivity and where the efficacy of macroprudential instruments is more certain.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"219 - 234"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41945246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The economic risk from COVID-19 in Pacific Island countries: very few infections but lots of pain 2019冠状病毒病对太平洋岛国的经济风险:感染很少，但痛苦很大
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1827016
Ilan Noy, Nguyen Doan, Tauisi Taupo
{"title":"The economic risk from COVID-19 in Pacific Island countries: very few infections but lots of pain","authors":"Ilan Noy, Nguyen Doan, Tauisi Taupo","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1827016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827016","url":null,"abstract":"We forecast the economic loss from COVID-19 in Pacific Island countries using pre-pandemic data. Applying a risk measure proposed by Noy et al. (2020a. Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID-19. Global Policy. Forthcoming), we use pre-COVID data to compute principal component indices for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience to COVID risk in the Pacific. We rank all the Pacific Island Countries according to their risk profile. Alternatively, we use the concept of Lost Life-Years (LLY), developed in Noy (2016. A Global Comprehensive Measure of the Impact of Natural Hazards and Disasters. Global Policy, 7(1), 56–65), and derived from the World Health Organization’s Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) method. We use the calculations of LLY to examine economic loss based on the forecasted losses associated with the declines in tourism, and with future growth, as predicted by the Asian Development Bank. The ranking of risk across the Pacific countries for each of these alternative measures is then compared.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"55 - 66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42645984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Effects of air quality on house prices: evidence from China’s Huai River Policy 空气质量对房价的影响：来自中国淮河政策的证据
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1827014
Xinghua Liu, Qiang Li, S. Chand, K. Sharpe
{"title":"Effects of air quality on house prices: evidence from China’s Huai River Policy","authors":"Xinghua Liu, Qiang Li, S. Chand, K. Sharpe","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1827014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827014","url":null,"abstract":"We employ a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the impact of air pollution on house prices across a river that demarcates regions with and without coal-fired heating resulting from the Huai River Policy. This policy was decreed by the Chinese government in the 1950s and mandated the burning of coal for indoor heating at subsidised prices north of the Huai River. Employing quasi-experimental variation in particulate matter of 10 micrometres or less in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) generated by this arbitrary policy and a regression discontinuity (RD) design based on distance from Huai River, we estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) to provide new evidence on the capitalisation of PM10 air pollution into house values. By using panel data covering 30 large cities on either side of the river for the period 2006–2015, we found that 1 µg/m3 (micrograms per cubic metre) reduction in average PM10 is associated with an approximately 1% increase in house prices. The results are robust to using parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, adjustment to a rich set of covariates, and using a subsample excluding first-tier cities.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"52 - 65"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49495344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
A welfare reform for New Zealand: mandatory savings not taxation 新西兰的福利改革:强制性储蓄而非税收
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2019.1659846
R. Douglas, Robert J. MacCulloch
{"title":"A welfare reform for New Zealand: mandatory savings not taxation","authors":"R. Douglas, Robert J. MacCulloch","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2019.1659846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2019.1659846","url":null,"abstract":"Many nations are seeking to reform their welfare states so that costs to the government can be reduced and the quality of outcomes improved. In this paper we show how mandatory savings accounts can be established in order to turn a publicly funded welfare system into one that relies more heavily on individuals funding welfare payments out of their own accounts. To our knowledge, showing how a tax and welfare reform can be jointly designed to enable this transition to occur in a way that minimizes any effect on the current disposable incomes of workers has not been done before. The paper takes a new unified approach to the funding of health, retirement and risk-cover, using New Zealand as a case study. Our proposed reform relieves the fiscal pressures which an ageing population is forecast to place on the government budget in the coming decades.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"239 - 273"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2019.1659846","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46983961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The business cycle and monetary policy: what changed after the GFC? 商业周期和货币政策:全球金融危机后发生了什么变化?
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1817135
Viv B. Hall, C. J. McDermott
{"title":"The business cycle and monetary policy: what changed after the GFC?","authors":"Viv B. Hall, C. J. McDermott","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1817135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1817135","url":null,"abstract":"To examine changes in the nature of the business cycle and its interaction with monetary policy we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model using two time periods, one prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 and one post the financial crisis. The model has the standard features of sticky prices and monopolistic competition. To fit the data the model also allows for households with a degree of habit persistence and a proportion of firms whose pricing decisions are simply to index to past inflation. Our results indicate the main difference pre- and post-GFC is that the economy has become less interest rate sensitive. Therefore, to stabilize the output and inflation, monetary policy actions need to be stronger than they were prior to the GFC. Moreover, the reduction in neutral interest rates post-GFC has resulted in additional transitional dynamics that have lowered inflation and output.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"312 - 326"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1817135","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47679147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The importance of frontier firms in total factor productivity in New Zealand, 2001–2016 前沿企业在新西兰全要素生产率中的重要性(2001-2016
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1806339
R. Harris
{"title":"The importance of frontier firms in total factor productivity in New Zealand, 2001–2016","authors":"R. Harris","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1806339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1806339","url":null,"abstract":"Using firm-level panel data and estimating production functions for 37 industries, covering the 2001–16 period, this paper finds little evidence of major changes in frontier TFP over 2001–16, and limited evidence of catching-up; that is, it seems very likely that New Zealand firms at the national frontier are not keeping pace with global frontier firms. The most important conclusion from this study is that while there is some evidence of a failure of productivity-enhancing technologies to diffuse from firms operating at the national productivity frontier, the major problem is failure of productivity-enhancing technologies to diffuse from firms operating at the global productivity frontier. New Zealand’s major problem is that frontier firms are underperforming because of their characteristics (e.g. small and lacking international connections) while productivity is overall adversely affected by a lack of competition, which generally creates barriers to exiting and insufficient reallocation of market shares from lower- to higher-productivity firms.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"285 - 311"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1806339","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48924803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
COVID-19, lockdown and two-sided uncertainty COVID-19、封锁和双边不确定性
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-08-16 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1806340
B. Davies, A. Grimes
{"title":"COVID-19, lockdown and two-sided uncertainty","authors":"B. Davies, A. Grimes","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1806340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1806340","url":null,"abstract":"When COVID-19 struck, the New Zealand government had two choices: enter lockdown immediately or delay its decision. Delay would have enabled more information to emerge about health and economic dynamics, while preserving the option to act at a later date. However, delay may have destroyed the option to eradicate COVID-19. We model the government’s decision when faced with the uncertainty around health and economic dynamics generated by COVID-19. Our model captures both two-sided uncertainty and the dynamic consequences that flow from the government’s initial decision. Our analysis will help guide future policy decisions amid similarly complex uncertainties.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"49 - 54"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1806340","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41528310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Modelling income data with exogenous measurement factors 用外生测量因素模拟收入数据
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-07-21 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1791938
R. Penny
{"title":"Modelling income data with exogenous measurement factors","authors":"R. Penny","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1791938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791938","url":null,"abstract":"With the increasing use of administrative data for analysis it is necessary to understand possible measurement artefacts that can arise from the way the administrative data is collected and recorded. One possibility is when the period covered by the data does not conform to a standard time period. Data collected on a weekly or fortnightly basis but reported monthly is a common pattern, the supply of employee earnings data to the New Zealand tax department being an example. In this case the month to month changes in the reported time series do not reflect true changes in monthly earnings. It is possible to extend time series models to identify the pay period used by a business and potentially adjust the data to take account of this measurement effect.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"274 - 284"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791938","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48926701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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