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Real estate bubbles and contagion: new empirical evidence from Canada 房地产泡沫与传染：来自加拿大的新经验证据
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-07-17 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1791940
Imad Rherrad, Jean-Louis Bago, Mardochée Mokengoy
{"title":"Real estate bubbles and contagion: new empirical evidence from Canada","authors":"Imad Rherrad, Jean-Louis Bago, Mardochée Mokengoy","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1791940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791940","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the presence of bubbles in the new housing market and resale housing market of four Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs): Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria and Hamilton, and whether the bubbles are contagious. The GSADF test developed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015) is applied on a monthly price-to-rent ratio from January 1988 to December 2018 to date-stamp episodes of bubbles in these markets. Our results suggest that among the four CMAs, only the resale housing market of Victoria was exuberant, while for the new housing market, both Victoria and Vancouver experienced exuberance. Subsequently, using a non-parametric model with time-varying coefficients performed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016), we find the evidence of bubbles migration from the new housing and resale housing markets within and between these CMAs.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"38 - 51"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791940","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45829163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Evaluating the impact of 20 hours free early childhood education on mothers’ labour force participation and earnings 评估20小时免费幼儿教育对母亲劳动力参与和收入的影响
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-07-16 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1791941
I. Bouchard, L. Cheung, G. Pacheco
{"title":"Evaluating the impact of 20 hours free early childhood education on mothers’ labour force participation and earnings","authors":"I. Bouchard, L. Cheung, G. Pacheco","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1791941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791941","url":null,"abstract":"New Zealand introduced a substantial childcare subsidy just over a decade ago, providing 20 hours free early childhood education (ECE) to all three- and four-year-olds. We evaluate the impact of this policy shift on mothers’ labour market participation and earnings. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and population-wide administrative panel data, we follow mothers’ quarterly earnings from pre-pregnancy to six years post-childbirth. The estimated impact of the ECE reform varies depending on the number of children eligible. For mothers with one child, there is some evidence of a drop in labour market participation and earnings, which potentially indicates this group is using the savings in ECE expenditure, a gain in real income, to consume more non-work time. For mothers with two eligible children, there is an increase in labour market participation, potentially because these households find it more worthwhile to increase ECE consumption and return to work when there are two children who benefit from the policy.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"188 - 202"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791941","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43968132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Export tax and import-tariff avoidance: evidence from the trade data discrepancy in the China-New Zealand trade 出口税收与进口关税规避:来自中新贸易数据差异的证据
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2019.1624598
K. Das, Laura Meriluoto, Amy Rice
{"title":"Export tax and import-tariff avoidance: evidence from the trade data discrepancy in the China-New Zealand trade","authors":"K. Das, Laura Meriluoto, Amy Rice","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2019.1624598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2019.1624598","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse discrepancy in the trade data between China and New Zealand, where what China reports as its exports to New Zealand and what New Zealand reports as its imports from China reached an alarming level of US$2.5 billion in 2014. We investigate the roles that export-tax and import-tariff avoidance play in explaining this discrepancy. We find strong evidence of export-tax avoidance for China’s exports to New Zealand that explains 11–27% of the missing exports, equivalent to 3.9–8.8% of true export value. We find only weak evidence of import-tariff avoidance in either direction.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"161 - 189"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2019.1624598","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42538914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Loss aversion in New Zealand housing 新西兰住房的损失规避
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2019.1631877
Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, C. Haworth
{"title":"Loss aversion in New Zealand housing","authors":"Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, C. Haworth","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2019.1631877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2019.1631877","url":null,"abstract":"We examine whether New Zealand home sellers are loss averse. Our empirical method is based on a large dataset of residential real estate transactions that exploits the most recent substantive housing downturn of 2007–2009. Consistent with loss aversion, we find that houses predicted to sell at a nominal loss realised a premium compared to houses predicted to sell at a nominal gain. We show how this finding causes house price indices to be ‘downward sticky’, preventing house price indices from falling by an additional two and a half percentage points during the downturn.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"138 - 160"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2019.1631877","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47703596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The ‘disciplinary effect’ of the performance-based research fund process in New Zealand 新西兰基于绩效的研究基金程序的“学科效应”
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2019.1636122
R. Buckle, J. Creedy
{"title":"The ‘disciplinary effect’ of the performance-based research fund process in New Zealand","authors":"R. Buckle, J. Creedy","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2019.1636122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2019.1636122","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how the research quality of academic disciplines within New Zealand universities has evolved since the Performance-based Research Fund (PBRF) began in 2003. It uses a database consisting of an anonymous ‘quality category’ (QC) for each person in the 2003 and 2012 assessment rounds. Individuals are assigned to nine discipline groups and the paper measures the distribution of researchers across disciplines within universities. There has been little change in the distribution and their concentration within and across universities. Exceptions are increases in the shares of medicine and agriculture, and a reduction in the share of education. Average Quality Scores are derived for each discipline. All groups substantially increased their scores. Transition matrices show that there are significant differences in the dynamics of disciplines during the PBRF process. Changes in the discipline composition of universities explains little of the proportional improvement of research quality among New Zealand universities.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"107 - 126"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2019.1636122","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44314062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
House prices, (un)affordability and systemic risk 房价、负担能力和系统性风险
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-01-29 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1718185
E. Pavlidis, I. Paya, Alexandros Skouralis
{"title":"House prices, (un)affordability and systemic risk","authors":"E. Pavlidis, I. Paya, Alexandros Skouralis","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1718185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1718185","url":null,"abstract":"This is the first paper to examine the role of the real estate sector and housing unaffordability in the determination of systemic risk. We measure the systemic risk of the UK by employing the method developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier [(2016). CoVaR. American Economic Review, 106(7), 1705–1741] and we explore both its cross-sectional and time series behaviour. Regarding the former, we show that when the real estate sector is under distress the tail risk of the entire financial system increases significantly. With respect to the latter, the findings of our dynamic model suggest that sustainable house prices positively contribute to the stability of the financial sector; whilst house price exuberance and rapid increases in housing unaffordability amplify systemic risk. Finally, we examine the conjecture that the banking sector comprises a transmission channel from the housing market to systemic risk. Our empirical results are in line with this argument and highlight the key role of housing unaffordability.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"105 - 123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1718185","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49456385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Male height and wellbeing in nineteenth century New Zealand: an analysis of the Boer War contingents 19世纪新西兰男性身高与幸福:对布尔战争特遣队的分析
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-01-27 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1716835
Geoffrey T. F. Brooke, L. Cheung
{"title":"Male height and wellbeing in nineteenth century New Zealand: an analysis of the Boer War contingents","authors":"Geoffrey T. F. Brooke, L. Cheung","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1716835","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1716835","url":null,"abstract":"We report on the heights and physical characteristics of New Zealand soldiers who served in the Second Boer War. Adult heights are widely used as evidence of the standard of living. The adult NZ-born soldiers had a mean height of over 68 in., which is tall for the period and consistent with NZ having a high standard of living at the turn of the twentieth century. To explore the implications of using self-reported ages, we match soldiers to their birth records to establish their true age. We document a tendency for young soldiers to over-state their age. When we use self-reported ages, the youngest adult cohort are a statistically significant 0.35 in. shorter than the base cohort. When we use true ages, they are a statistically insignificant 0.18 in. shorter. This suggests that greater care is needed in the use and interpretation of historical enlistment data for estimating adult heights.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"190 - 209"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1716835","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45437804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A re-evaluation of the choice of an inflation target in the wake of the global financial crisis 全球金融危机后对通胀目标选择的重新评估
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1715469
Richard T. Froyen, Alfred V. Guender
{"title":"A re-evaluation of the choice of an inflation target in the wake of the global financial crisis","authors":"Richard T. Froyen, Alfred V. Guender","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1715469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1715469","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Through an appropriate choice of inflation objective – a real-exchange-rate-adjusted (REX) inflation target – the central bank can limit fluctuations in real economic activity which has become a cause of great concern in recent years in many small open economies. REX inflation targeting dominates CPI targeting from the standpoint of output gap stabilization. CPI inflation targeting dominates REX inflation targeting from the standpoint of stabilizing inflation, nominal interest rates and real exchange rates. These results help inform ongoing discussions of possible alternatives for the existing flexible inflation targeting framework.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"277 - 288"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1715469","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42324713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Visual imagination and the performance of undergraduate economics students 视觉想象与经济学本科学生的表现
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2019.1708433
D. Fielding, V. Kahui, Dennis Wesselbaum
{"title":"Visual imagination and the performance of undergraduate economics students","authors":"D. Fielding, V. Kahui, Dennis Wesselbaum","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2019.1708433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2019.1708433","url":null,"abstract":"There is known to be substantial variation in the quality of individuals’ visual imagery, but little is known about the effects of this variation on student learning outcomes. This is of particular concern in subjects such as economics that involve extensive use of graphical or pictorial representations. We present the results of a study comparing the quality of visual imagery with undergraduate examination performance. The quality of visual imagery was significantly associated with overall examination performance, but this result was driven entirely by the associations for male participants. Among males, the association was significantly larger for graphical questions than for mathematical questions, and a high mathematical question grade was associated with a significantly smaller association between the quality of visual imagery and the graphical question grade. Poor visual imagery can impair performance in undergraduate economics, at least among male students.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"127 - 137"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2019.1708433","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44618030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Productivity in New Zealand: the role of resource allocation among firms 新西兰生产力：企业间资源分配的作用
New Zealand Economic Papers Pub Date : 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2019.1573846
Lisa Meehan
{"title":"Productivity in New Zealand: the role of resource allocation among firms","authors":"Lisa Meehan","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2019.1573846","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2019.1573846","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper analyses the role of resource allocation in New Zealand's productivity performance by applying a three-factor revenue productivity measure of within-industry misallocation to firm-level data. It finds that if all market distortions were eliminated, total factor productivity could increase by more than a third. However, resource allocation has improved somewhat over the 2000s due to improvements in the manufacturing and service sectors, while allocation has worsened in the primary and utilities sectors. This paper is the first to use a three-factor decomposition method to examine which distortions have contributed to changes in allocative efficiency over time. These decompositions show that the worsening resource allocation in the primary and utilities sectors mainly reflects increased distortions in the allocation of capital. The results also suggest that many small firms are larger than their optimal size given their low productivity levels, which is consistent with previous research showing a comparatively poor ‘up-or-out’ dynamic among New Zealand firms.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"54 1","pages":"39 - 66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2019.1573846","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47075459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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