New Zealand Economic Papers最新文献

{"title":"Immediate employment and income impacts of Covid-19 in New Zealand: evidence from a survey conducted during the Alert Level 4 lockdown","authors":"Michael Fletcher, Kate C Prickett, S. Chapple","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870537","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 Level 4 lockdown represented an unprecedented and sudden shock to the New Zealand labour market. Using unique data collected during lockdown (n = 2002), this study examined the work circumstances of individuals and the economic shock in terms of income and job loss to both individuals and households. We found that the unemployment effectively doubled rising from 5.2% just prior to lockdown to 10.5% by week 3 of lockdown. Close to 44% of individuals lived in a household where members experienced job and/or income loss. While economic loss was widespread, some groups were harder hit, particularly those with lower incomes.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"73 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870537","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44838537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Work circumstances, job loss, and wellbeing during New Zealand’s Covid-19 Alert Level 4 lockdown","authors":"H. Habibi, Kate C Prickett, Michael Fletcher, S. Chapple","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1871064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1871064","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the way work is conducted resulted in widespread unemployment – both of which may have consequences for workers’ wellbeing. Using unique data collected during New Zealand’s Alert Level 4 lockdown, this paper examines differences in affective wellbeing among surveyed workers (n = 1,238) who lost jobs due to the lockdown and those who remained employed. We found that those who lost jobs, compared to those who remained employed, experienced poorer wellbeing. Essential workers also experienced more stress and worry than other workers. The findings can inform policy aimed at buffering workers from the negative consequence of pandemic-related restrictions.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"310 - 318"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1871064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41982457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A social cost–benefit framework for COVID-19 policy decisions","authors":"D. Heatley","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870538","url":null,"abstract":"Important public sector decisions should be informed by cost–benefit analysis (CBA), according to the New Zealand Treasury. This paper explores whether policy decisions about COVID-19 responses are tractable and amenable to ex ante CBA. It does so with a worked example: a CBA of the decision to extend alert level 4 restrictions by a further 5 days on 20 April 2020, using the information that was known at the time. The paper concludes that such analysis is both tractable and a worthwhile input into COVID-19 decision making.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"41 - 48"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870538","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43638267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of COVID-19 on changes in community mobility and variation in transport modes","authors":"Le Wen, M. Sheng, B. Sharp","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870536","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Using Google mobility data and Apple maps data we track changes in community mobility and transport modes during the COVID-19 Alert levels. Results show that Alert Level 4 – lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction in mobility and variation in transport mode. Mobility and transport mode progressively returned to pre-Alert Level 4 patterns with the exception of public transport. Regional heterogeneity in the variation of public transport use was evident in the data. Containment measures also had a significant negative effect on retail and recreation. Otago had a significantly delayed recovery in retail and recreation relative to other regions.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"98 - 105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870536","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46314603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The COVID-19 experience in the Fiji Islands: some lessons for crisis management for small island developing states of the Pacific region and beyond","authors":"Rup Singh, Sumeet Lal, Mohsin Khan, Arvind Patel, Ronal Chand, D. K. Jain","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870534","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID19 global pandemic has seriously disturbed Fiji, its people and the economy. Consequently, crisis management has been highly challenging in this small and vulnerable economy. Although the number of positive cases was low, the economic impact of COVID19 has been significant. In this paper, we identify several crisis management issues to better deal with the pandemic. These discussions can potentially improve Fiji’s response strategies and initiatives to safeguard public health and economic activity. Our evaluation indicates room for learning and innovation in Fiji’s health care services to ensure resilience and effective response mechanisms. The suggestions are not only useful for Fiji but also for other similar economies in the region. These suggestive strategies can work as proactive measures to combat second wave impact yet to come.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"67 - 72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870534","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44938670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"House prices and affordability","authors":"Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, P. Phillips","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328","url":null,"abstract":"The decade following the global financial crisis (GFC) has witnessed rampant house price appreciation in many cities of the developed world. The metropolitan centres of New Zealand showcase this phenomenon with house price appreciation persistently outpacing income growth. In Auckland, the ratio of prevailing median house prices to median household income rose from 6.4 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2016 (Demographia, 2011, 2017), before declining to 8.6 by 2019 as house prices flat-lined while household incomes increased (Demographia, 2020). However, a strong resurgence in house prices during 2020 means that this ratio has resumed its upward trajectory, with an increase of approximately 16% set against an increase in average household income of only 4.4% for the year through to June 2019 (Statistics New Zealand, 2020). Increases over the last decade of a similar or even larger magnitude have occurred in the cities of Tauranga, Hamilton, Napier, Wellington and Dunedin. A study by the authors (Greenaway-McGrevy & Phillips, 2016) analysed data for the main metropolitan centres over 2005–2016, finding strong evidence of repeated episodes of house price exuberance coupled with clear indications of spill-over effects among New Zealand cities. In response to these developments in the New Zealand housing market, an array of policy tools has been marshalled by the government and central bank designed to curb house price inflation. The measures have acted on both housing supply and demand but broadly have met with very limited success, as evidenced by the raw data in Figures 1 and 2. Empirical results from recursive econometric tests for speculative exuberance in theAuckland andWellingtonmarkets are shown in Figure 3. These recursive tests use the methods of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a, 2015b) for detection and real-time dating of asset price bubbles, and indicate the presence of real estate bubble episodes in bothAuckland andWellington housingmarkets over the two periods 2004–2006 and 2015–2016.Moreover, the latest data for Auckland and Wellington suggest a renewal of explosive behaviour in these two real estate markets in the final quarter of 2020, confirming widespread anecdotal and media evidence in late 2020 of intensive demand pressure and resulting FOMO1 in real estate activity in New Zealand. In response to these recurrent developments over the last two decades, central government has recent sought to restrain housing demand by reducing foreign investment (through the Overseas Investment Bill) and by restricting investor speculation (through the Taxation (Bright Lines Test for Residential Land) Bill).2 In addition, macro-prudential policies by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have sought to restrict access to credit through maximum load-to-value ratios (LVRs) that serve to cool down housing demand (Armstrong, Skilling, & Yao, 2019). These policies contributed to stabilizing house price appreciation for a few years after 2016, as evidenced in Figure 1. But the","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"1 - 6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48810866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The causes and economic consequences of rising regional housing prices in New Zealand","authors":"P. Nunns","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1791939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791939","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the causes and economic consequences of recent increases and divergences in regional house prices in New Zealand. It identifies large and increasing ‘wedges’ between house prices and underlying supply costs. These house price distortions arise from the collision of rising demand for housing with housing supply constraints, including zoning rules that limit new subdivision and redevelopment of existing sites. Regions with larger starting price distortions appear to have experienced larger increases in house prices and rents in response to migration shocks. This results in large economic costs due to misallocation of labour away from high-productivity regions in New Zealand and increased net migration to Australia. A calibrated spatial equilibrium model is used to investigate what would have happened if house price distortions had increased at a slower rate in recent decades due to relaxation of supply constraints. This model implies that comprehensively removing constraints to housing supply would have increased New Zealand’s total economic output by up to 8.4%, increased per-worker output by 0.9%, and eliminated recent net migration outflows to Australia. More plausible counterfactual scenarios would result in smaller, but still economically meaningful, gains on the order of one to five percent of gross domestic product.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"66 - 104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791939","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41764469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hard, not early: putting the New Zealand Covid-19 response in context","authors":"J. Gibson","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1842796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842796","url":null,"abstract":"A popular narrative that New Zealand’s policy response to Coronavirus was ‘go hard, go early’ is misleading. While restrictions were the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown in March and April, these were imposed after the likely peak in new infections. I use the time path of Covid-19 deaths for each OECD country to estimate inflection points. Allowing for the typical lag from infection to death, new infections peaked before the most stringent policy responses were applied in many countries, including New Zealand. The cross-country evidence shows that restrictions imposed after the inflection point in infections is reached are ineffective in reducing total deaths. Even restrictions imposed earlier have just a modest effect; if Sweden’s more relaxed restrictions had been used, an extra 310 Covid-19 deaths are predicted for New Zealand – far fewer than the thousands of deaths in some widely reported mathematical simulations.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"1 - 8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842796","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48847695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response","authors":"John Gibson","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786","url":null,"abstract":"The New Zealand policy response to Coronavirus was the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown. Up to 10 billion dollars of output (≈3.3% of GDP) was lost in moving to Level 4 rather than staying at Level 2, according to Treasury calculations. For lockdown to be optimal requires large health benefits to offset this output loss. Forecast deaths from epidemiological models are not valid counterfactuals, due to poor identification. Instead, I use empirical data, based on variation amongst United States counties, over one-fifth of which just had social distancing rather than lockdown. Political drivers of lockdown provide identification. Lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths. This pattern is visible on each date that key lockdown decisions were made in New Zealand. The apparent ineffectiveness of lockdowns suggests that New Zealand suffered large economic costs for little benefit in terms of lives saved.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"17 - 28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44134909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tourism sector in New Zealand – demand-side measures are necessary","authors":"M. Grančay","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1844787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844787","url":null,"abstract":"The paper argues that to support its tourism industry New Zealand must move beyond the current supply-side measures and take action to stimulate demand. In the absence of international guests, tourism recovery has to focus on domestic travel. We suggest a system of holiday vouchers is introduced – a concept which has been adopted by numerous countries in Europe already.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"114 - 117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844787","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42684919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}