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Real Option Approach For Comparing Lifetime Costs Of Alternative Diabetes Type I Treatment Methods 比较不同I型糖尿病治疗方法终生成本的实物期权方法
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.25102/fer.2016.02.04
T. Haahtela
{"title":"Real Option Approach For Comparing Lifetime Costs Of Alternative Diabetes Type I Treatment Methods","authors":"T. Haahtela","doi":"10.25102/fer.2016.02.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/fer.2016.02.04","url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares with cash flow simulation real option valuation method the costs of treating diabetes type 1 (T1D) with the commonly used multiple daily injection (MDI) method and the novel method of combining insulin pump and continuous glucose monitoring (CSII + CGM) into a hybrid closed-loop system. Both direct and indirect costs of T1D treatment are considered. Daily basic treatment costs are twice as high with CSII + CGM in comparison with the MDI method. However, overall lifetime costs with CSII + CGM are approximately only one third in comparison with the MDI method. This is due to expensive indirect complication costs related to insufficient therapeutic control of many diabetics using MDI, while advanced CSII+CGM users can avoid these complications nearly completely. At the same time, quality of life of type 1 diabetics improves significantly when using advanced CSII+CGM systems.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"857 1","pages":"71-91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69292000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Modeling Naïve Causality In Everyday Reasonig With Fuzzy Logic 用模糊逻辑建模Naïve日常推理中的因果关系
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.25102/fer.2016.01.04
L. Iandoli, C. Ponsiglione, G. Zollo
{"title":"Modeling Naïve Causality In Everyday Reasonig With Fuzzy Logic","authors":"L. Iandoli, C. Ponsiglione, G. Zollo","doi":"10.25102/fer.2016.01.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/fer.2016.01.04","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to present a new approach to the representation and elaboration of fuzzy causal reasoning. The proposed approach is based on some results obtained by several studies on causal explanation in the field of cognitive sciences. Drawing form such results, we present a fuzzy linguistic inference called generalized equivalence that permits to represent causal relationships contained in causal linguistic explanations though fuzzy relationships between antecedents and consequents. The generalized equivalence expresses the uncertainty of the causal link in an approximate way. The proposed model can be used to represent verbal explanation containing fuzzy evaluations of variables and of the relationships among them, such as in the statementusually bad weather causes a remarkable increase in car accidents, where usually, bad weather and remarkable increase are fuzzy constructs. The generalized equivalence can be applied to fuzzy causal maps to represent the intensity of causal relationships between fuzzy concepts.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"51-69"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aggregation Methods for Fuzzy Judgments 模糊判断的聚合方法
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.25102/FER.2016.01.01
A. Syed, Ismat Beg, Asma Khalid
{"title":"Aggregation Methods for Fuzzy Judgments","authors":"A. Syed, Ismat Beg, Asma Khalid","doi":"10.25102/FER.2016.01.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/FER.2016.01.01","url":null,"abstract":"Arrow (1963) established that a group cannot always reach logically consistent collective outcome. Subsequently many developments like premise based, conclusion based and distance based methods have emerged in literature to reach group consistency. This study is focused on the judgment aggregation in fuzzy logic based setting with novel involvement of family of t-norms. We compare three distance based methods due to Miller and Osherson (2009) using Lukasiewicz and min t-norm. These methods in fuzzy logic based settings give closer results to consistency of outcome. It also broaden the set of properties and authenticity of the methods. Distance methods in our study also satisfy Arrow’s axioms in solution method.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"3-21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A formalization of the theory of expertons. Theoretical foundations, properties and development of software for its calculation 专家理论的形式化。理论基础、性质及计算软件开发
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.25102/FER.2016.01.02
J. C. F. Comalat, S. L. Mustarós, D. C. Coll
{"title":"A formalization of the theory of expertons. Theoretical foundations, properties and development of software for its calculation","authors":"J. C. F. Comalat, S. L. Mustarós, D. C. Coll","doi":"10.25102/FER.2016.01.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/FER.2016.01.02","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this article is to present in a formal way the concept of the experton, which is commonly used in practice, and use this formalization to justify its properties and the equivalence between the concept of mathematical expectation of an experton and the expectation of expressed opinions. The work will clarify the relationship of the experton with certain probabilistic fuzzy sets and we have opted to define it as a phi-fuzzy set which meets certain requirements. Finally, the formalization carried out allows for software to be developed that enables an experton to be calculated using an evaluation table.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"23-39"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
MIXED MODELS FOR RISK AVERSION, OPTIMAL SAVING, AND PRUDENCE 风险规避、最优储蓄和审慎的混合模型
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.25102/FER.2016.02.03
I. Georgescu, J. Kinnunen
{"title":"MIXED MODELS FOR RISK AVERSION, OPTIMAL SAVING, AND PRUDENCE","authors":"I. Georgescu, J. Kinnunen","doi":"10.25102/FER.2016.02.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/FER.2016.02.03","url":null,"abstract":"The models of this paper refer to mixed risk situations: one parameter is a fuzzy number and the other is a random variable. Three notions of mixed expected utility are proposed as a mathematical basis of these models. The results of the paper describe risk aversion and prudence of an agent in front of a risk situation with mixed parameters and the changes of optimal saving as an effect of mixed risk.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"47-70"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
HOW DO DIFFERENT TIME SPANS AFFECT THE PREDICTION ACCURACY OF BUSINESS FAILURE 不同的时间跨度对企业失败预测的准确性有何影响
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.25102/fer.2015.01.04
X. Càmara-Turull, M. A. F. Izquierdo, M. T. S. Forradellas
{"title":"HOW DO DIFFERENT TIME SPANS AFFECT THE PREDICTION ACCURACY OF BUSINESS FAILURE","authors":"X. Càmara-Turull, M. A. F. Izquierdo, M. T. S. Forradellas","doi":"10.25102/fer.2015.01.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/fer.2015.01.04","url":null,"abstract":"The prediction of business failure has been widely studied by many authors. Most of the studies focused on improve the results by applying new methodologies or by using more suitable financial information. This study aims to analyze the impact of the input data timeframe on the prediction accuracy of business failure. Using an artificial neural network, the self-organizing maps (SOM), we compare the results obtained by using 9, 6 and 3 years of input data. We concluded that the 3-year case provides a better global results despite of the 6-year case presents the lowest error type I.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"71-89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Analysis Of Beta Coefficients In The Brazilian Stock Market Using Fuzzy Linear Regression Methodology 用模糊线性回归方法分析巴西股市的贝塔系数
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI: 10.25102/FER.2015.02.01
Yanina Laumann
{"title":"Analysis Of Beta Coefficients In The Brazilian Stock Market Using Fuzzy Linear Regression Methodology","authors":"Yanina Laumann","doi":"10.25102/FER.2015.02.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/FER.2015.02.01","url":null,"abstract":"With the aim of using all the information provided by the market to determine the systematic risk, we intend to continue the study of Terceno et al. (2011, 2014) using fuzzy linear regression to calculate the sectors betas of the Brazilian Stock Market. The analysis with fuzzy regression can be applied which crisp data, uncertain or with a mixture of both. The objective of this work is, precisely, to compare the obtained results using the fuzzy regression with crisp data and uncertain data. After that, we make a comparison with the results obtained by using ordinary least squares. The comparison allows us to determine which of the systems allows a better adaptation of reality. As we will show, fuzzy regression is in many ways more versatile than conventional linear regression because functional relationships can be obtained when the independent variables, dependent variables, or both, are not crisp values but intervals or fuzzy numbers.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"3-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
A Method for the Evaluation and Selection of an Appropriate Fuzzy Implication by Using Statistical Data 一种利用统计数据评价和选择合适模糊含义的方法
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI: 10.25102/FER.2015.02.02
G. Botzoris, K. Papadopoulos, B. Papadopoulos
{"title":"A Method for the Evaluation and Selection of an Appropriate Fuzzy Implication by Using Statistical Data","authors":"G. Botzoris, K. Papadopoulos, B. Papadopoulos","doi":"10.25102/FER.2015.02.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/FER.2015.02.02","url":null,"abstract":"In classic logic, there exists an implication of the form p=> q equiv n(p) v q (where n(p) is the negation of p and v the maximum). If we consider the fact that the propositions p and q take only the values 0 and 1, then the values of the classic implication are well-defined. In fuzzy logic, where the proposition can take any value in the closed interval [0, 1], there is an infinite number of fuzzy implications which can be used; hence, a method of selecting the most appropriate implication is required. In this paper, we propose a method of evaluation of the different fuzzy implications using available statistical data. The choice of the appropriate implication is based on the deviation of the truth value of the fuzzy implication from the real values, as described by the statistical data.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"42 1","pages":"19-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
WATER INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING IN SPAIN: POTENTIAL FOR SECURITIZATION 西班牙水利基础设施融资:证券化的潜力
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI: 10.25102/fer.2015.02.03
Xavier Ponce-Alifonso, S. García
{"title":"WATER INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING IN SPAIN: POTENTIAL FOR SECURITIZATION","authors":"Xavier Ponce-Alifonso, S. García","doi":"10.25102/fer.2015.02.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/fer.2015.02.03","url":null,"abstract":"Water scarcity is a persistent problem in Spain. There has consequently been a long-standing debate about the role that the public sector must play in water policies, as well as that of market-based instruments. In this paper we analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with public and private financing of water infrastructure projects. For this purpose, we discuss how water infrastructure financing has evolved in Spain over the past century and analyze the possibilities of using securitization to finance water infrastructure projects. We present an optimization program that could facilitate public securitization processes to determine the optimum volume of cash transfer in each period, and we solve this using fuzzy programming.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"31-43"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
FUZZY SIMILARITY AND COUNTERFACTUALS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF DEFAULT RISK: THE EUROZONE CRISIS AND THE ARGENTINEAN SOLUTION 违约风险评估中的模糊相似性与反事实:欧元区危机与阿根廷解决方案
Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2015-05-01 DOI: 10.25102/FER.2015.01.02
J. Pazzi, F. Tohmé
{"title":"FUZZY SIMILARITY AND COUNTERFACTUALS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF DEFAULT RISK: THE EUROZONE CRISIS AND THE ARGENTINEAN SOLUTION","authors":"J. Pazzi, F. Tohmé","doi":"10.25102/FER.2015.01.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25102/FER.2015.01.02","url":null,"abstract":"We present an approach, based on the notion of fuzzy similarity, to the comparison of economies under default risk. We run a counterfactual analysis of the perspectives of the most troubled countries in the Eurozone compared with Argentina in 2001. This allows us to assess the possibility that these economies will end up following the path of Argentina.","PeriodicalId":38703,"journal":{"name":"Fuzzy Economic Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"39-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69291568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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