不同的时间跨度对企业失败预测的准确性有何影响

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Fuzzy Economic Review Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI:10.25102/fer.2015.01.04

X. Càmara-Turull, M. A. F. Izquierdo, M. T. S. Forradellas

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引用次数: 1

摘要

许多作者对商业失败的预测进行了广泛的研究。大多数研究的重点是通过采用新的方法或使用更合适的财务资料来改善结果。本研究旨在分析输入数据时间框架对商业失败预测准确度的影响。利用人工神经网络自组织映射(SOM)，我们比较了使用9年、6年和3年输入数据得到的结果。我们的结论是，尽管6年的病例呈现最低的错误类型I，但3年的病例提供了更好的全局结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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HOW DO DIFFERENT TIME SPANS AFFECT THE PREDICTION ACCURACY OF BUSINESS FAILURE

The prediction of business failure has been widely studied by many authors. Most of the studies focused on improve the results by applying new methodologies or by using more suitable financial information. This study aims to analyze the impact of the input data timeframe on the prediction accuracy of business failure. Using an artificial neural network, the self-organizing maps (SOM), we compare the results obtained by using 9, 6 and 3 years of input data. We concluded that the 3-year case provides a better global results despite of the 6-year case presents the lowest error type I.

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来源期刊

Fuzzy Economic Review Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics

CiteScore

0.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量