{"title":"Balance sheet expansionary policies in the euro area: Macroeconomic impacts and a vulnerable versus non-vulnerable comparison","authors":"Francisco Gomes-Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the impacts and heterogeneity of the ECB's large-scale asset purchasing programs of sovereign securities on real GDP, inflation, long-term sovereign bond yields, systemic stress, and the unemployment rate. A structural Bayesian VAR model with six endogenous variables was estimated for 11 euro area countries over the period 2012:M1 to 2023:M12. To provide robustness to the results, a structural panel BVAR model is estimated, enabling a straightforward comparison of impulse responses of vulnerable and non-vulnerable countries. The results suggest that the magnitudes of impulse responses were more favorable in countries that were more economically and financially vulnerable. These findings underscore that financial and economic distress was a source of heterogeneity in the responses to large scale asset purchases within the euro area.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e00366"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S170349492400015X/pdfft?md5=e11a27685230aaddad2a81dfe2ff330b&pid=1-s2.0-S170349492400015X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140950727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring inflation dynamics in Canada: A threshold vector autoregressive approach","authors":"Yiguo Sun , Anastasia Dimiski","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00364","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Given the pivotal role of inflation expectations in contemporary monetary policy, we posit that if monetary policy has effectively influenced inflation expectations, thereby altering the trajectory of total inflation, a structural break in the path of total inflation should be observable. Conversely, if inflation expectations have remained stable and monetary policy has had limited impact, a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model should adequately describe the path of total inflation. To address these hypotheses, a non-linear specification of a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model is employed, offering a comprehensive analytical framework for the examination of these dynamics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e00364"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494924000136/pdfft?md5=0d33933ff5ebede5fe93f3d4654f9ceb&pid=1-s2.0-S1703494924000136-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140905448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Price linkages in major EU virgin olive oil markets","authors":"Pamela Theofanous , Ourania Tremma","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00360","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the price relationships between the three major EU olive oil markets; Spain, Italy and Greece. The empirical analysis utilises a series of linear and non-linear econometric techniques to explore long and short run relations examining market integration as well as the pattern of price transmission. The study utilises monthly wholesale data for virgin olive oil for the three countries, covering the period January 2000 to April 2022. Results from the Diks and Panchenko nonlinear causality test suggest Spain to be the central market and stable long-run relations are revealed between the examined price pairs through the non-linear Momentum Threshold Cointegration model, with the strongest relation being identified between Italy and Greece. Regarding the pattern of price transmission, it is found to be asymmetric for the pairs Spain-Greece and Spain-Italy, whereas for price pair Italy-Greece symmetry is confirmed, and the Law of One Price holds in its strong version. This suggests that while the markets are integrated, the EU olive oil market is characterised by inefficiencies indicating the need for further reforms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e00360"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140843182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asymmetric effects of uncertainty on investment: Empirical evidence from India","authors":"Masudul Hasan Adil , Amrita Roy","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Investment is envisaged as a prerequisite for improving productivity and growth in any economy. In India, investment has decelerated during the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008, especially after 2011–12, which has spurred a heated discussion regarding causes accountable for elongated slowdown. To this end, we empirically examine the causal nexus between investment and its covariates in an asymmetric framework. The present study finds asymmetric cointegration along with short-run impact asymmetry, long-run reaction asymmetry, and adjustment asymmetry between investment and its covariates. Furthermore, evidence of asymmetric Granger causality is also established. Our study's conclusions have important policy outcomes to combat the economy's downturn in investment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e00359"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140633265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do retail-oriented banks have less non-performing loans?","authors":"Matteo Farnè , Angelos Vouldis","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present empirical evidence that euro area banks following a retail-oriented financial intermediation business model exhibit a lower level of non-performing loans in their loan portfolio compared to the banks involved to a larger degree in market activities. This result is confirmed separately for the subsets of banks operating in distress and non-distress countries. We primarily utilise a business model classification that is underpinned by granular confidential supervisory data collected in the context of the EU Single Supervisory Mechanism. We control for macroeconomic developments, a number of bank-specific determinants and endogeneity, using an instrumental variables approach. Our results remain robust to the application of a wide range of specifications and estimation methods.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e00358"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140558024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting downside and upside realized volatility: The role of asymmetric information","authors":"Daiki Maki","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines which asymmetric variables lead to the better forecast performance of downside and upside risks. The models used in this study measure downside and upside risks using realized semivariance. In addition to their past values, the models utilize return, volume, and jump components as asymmetric variables. We apply these models to major exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and show that asymmetric return variables increase the forecast performance of downside and upside risks for all ETFs. For bond, commodity, and crude oil ETFs, asymmetric trading volume variables are also found to be an important factor in better forecast performance. These results indicate that asymmetric information plays an important role in forecasting downside and upside risks, enabling superior risk management and investment strategy formulation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e00357"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140000216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Monica Auteri , Marco Mele , Isabella Ruble , Cosimo Magazzino
{"title":"The double sustainability: The link between government debt and renewable energy","authors":"Monica Auteri , Marco Mele , Isabella Ruble , Cosimo Magazzino","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper innovatively explores the relationship between a country’s government debt and the use of renewable energy. Incorporating key socio-economic and financial variables, critical to the United Nations SDG-7, we build a panel dataset for G7 countries from 1990-2021. Using cointegrating regression methods (FMOLS and DOLS), Quantile Regressions (QR) and pairwise panel causality tests, we find bidirectional causality between government debt and renewable energy consumption (REC). The empirical findings emphasize the important policy implications for sustainable economic development. Escalating government debt can hinder investment in renewable energy infrastructure, while increased renewable energy has a positive impact on government debt dynamics. Policymakers are encouraged to prioritize fiscal responsibility to secure resources for renewable energy investments. Moreover, incentivizing renewable energy deployment promotes long-term fiscal benefits and creates a positive feedback loop. In fact, a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between government finances and environmental sustainability is crucial for an optimal balance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e00356"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494924000057/pdfft?md5=92407064fda91a6abdbc2b499d3e39b2&pid=1-s2.0-S1703494924000057-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139942324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel Ofori-Sasu , Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor , Dennis Nsafoah , Simplice A. Asongu
{"title":"Banking behaviour and political business cycle in Africa: The role of independent regulatory policies of the central bank","authors":"Daniel Ofori-Sasu , Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor , Dennis Nsafoah , Simplice A. Asongu","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the effect of regulatory independence of the central bank in shaping the impact of electoral cycles on bank lending behaviour in Africa. It employs the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) Two-Step estimator for a panel dataset of 54 African countries over the period, 2004–2022. The study found that banks lend substantially higher during election years, and reduce lending patterns thereafter. The study shows that countries that enforce monetary policy autonomy of the central bank induce a negative impact on bank lending behaviour while those that apply strong macro-prudential independent action and central bank independence reduce lending in the long term. The study provides evidence to support that regulatory independence of the central bank dampens the positive effect of elections on bank lending around election years while they amplify the reductive effects on bank lending after election periods. There is a wake-up call for countries with weak independent central bank regulatory policy to strengthen their independent regulatory policy frameworks and political institutions. This will enable them better strategize to yield a desirable outcome of bank lending to the real economy during election years.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e00355"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139936097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asymmetric impacts of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets: Contagion and macroeconomic determinants","authors":"Chokri Zehri , Zagros Madjd-Sadjadi , Latifa Saleh Iben Ammar","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Do fluctuations in U.S. short-term interest rates<span>, both decreases and increases, have distinct effects on the monetary policies of emerging market economies (EMEs)? We use various empirical techniques to examine the responses of EMEs' monetary decisions across distinct phases of U.S. monetary policy (USMP). Our analysis uses data from 17 economies with </span></span>inflation<span> goals and predominantly flexible exchange rate systems<span><span> from 2000 to 2020. Our findings underscore the asymmetric contagion effects of USMP. Both U.S. short-term rates decrease and increase, demonstrating a significant contagion effect in the near term. Conversely, U.S. long-term rates influence the domestic rates of EMEs when tighter, with no observed contagion during easing. Moreover, EMEs with higher GDP growth rates and trade balances demonstrate lower susceptibility to contagion. Conversely, in confirmation of the global financial cycle theory, an increase in </span>capital inflows and surging stock market indices is correlated with heightened contagion. Our study suggests that EMEs should closely monitor and react to USMP changes to maintain financial stability and recommends that U.S. policymakers consider the international impacts of its policies, advocating for increased dialogue and collaboration.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e00354"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139549103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}