Chiara Oldani , Giovanni S.F. Bruno , Marcello Signorelli
{"title":"Collapsing bubbles in the prices of cryptocurrencies","authors":"Chiara Oldani , Giovanni S.F. Bruno , Marcello Signorelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the existence of bubbles in the daily prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Ripple (XRP), employing the recursive methods of Phillips et al. (2015) and Phillips et al. (2011) for testing and date-stamping episodes of exuberant behaviour over a period spanning seven years (2018–2024), including the COVID-19 pandemic crisis (2020–2021). The critical values of the tests are computed through the composite wild bootstrap technique by Phillips and Shi (2020) to make them robust to time-varying unconditional heteroscedasticity and the multiplicity issue in recursive tests. Results indicate that the prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies traded on decentralized ledgers, BTC and ETH, exhibited multiple episodes of exuberant behaviour, unambiguously for BTC and depending on the tests for ETH. Bubbles detected in the prices of BTC were due to the halving of the crypto, to market exuberance and to the pandemic crisis; bubbles detected on ETH prices were due to the launch of NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain, and to the change in investors’ expectations (from exuberant to pessimistic); the change in the stance of monetary policy burst the bubbles of BTC and ETH prices in 2024. No test supports the exuberance of XRP that is traded on a centralized ledger; weekly data confirm the absence of multiple bubbles. By looking at the presence of bubbles in these different digital ecosystems, we also consider how the technological differences can impact, possibly asymmetrically, bubbles' formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00420"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Local financial distress and fiscal regimes: Evidence from Italy","authors":"Cristiana Fiorelli , Nicola Pontarollo , Carolina Serpieri","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how fiscal regulation may influence lower government finances by devolving greater responsibilities to local policymakers that limit free-riding behaviour and ensure fiscal sustainability. To this extent, the Italian case provides a suitable regulatory setting that has evolved over the years, as almost 600 Italian municipalities experienced financial distress from 1989 to 2018. The aim of this study is two-fold: i) to investigate the historical and geographical evolution of local government bankruptcy procedures and ii) to test whether the exogenous Italian legislation on local government defaults influenced the dynamics of the local financial distress phenomenon, identifying three different fiscal regulatory regimes. Our results show that the regulatory regimes until 2000, which prepared for the government bail-out of local defaults, encouraged municipalities to take advantage of the bankruptcy procedures and after 2001, when the legislative interventions had been updated, there is no longer such incentive. Asymmetric effects are observed when municipalities are analysed by population size, pointing to the need to go beyond a one-size-fits-all approach to fiscal policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00418"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Aid and growth: Asymmetric effects?","authors":"Leo M. Doerr","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores potential asymmetries in the relationship between development aid and economic growth. Our analysis reveals that while previous research identifies small positive growth effects of aid, these results stem from the adverse impact of aid reductions, with no corresponding positive effect from aid increases. This suggests that aid acts more as a substitute for domestic resources than as a catalyst for growth. Combining dynamic generalized method of moments techniques with asymmetric effect analysis, we provide a new methodological framework that addresses both unbalanced effects and endogeneity of aid, offering new insights into the aid-growth nexus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00417"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143835236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A.G. Malliaris , Mary Malliaris , Mark S. Rzepczynski
{"title":"Explaining the asymmetric S&P 500 equity index in five themes: The success and failure of macro narratives","authors":"A.G. Malliaris , Mary Malliaris , Mark S. Rzepczynski","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economists often use narratives that focus on a limited number of variables to describe stock market behavior. We use a neural network methodology to evaluate the appropriateness of five common narratives. Four narratives address the themes of monetary policy and financial conditions, the real macroeconomy, the global economy, and the stock market fundamentals. The fifth is a unified theme combining the best features from the previous four-macro narratives. Theme based neural network models highlight the successes and periodic failures of macro factor narratives. This paper confirms the usefulness of the narrative themes proposed to explain the asymmetric behavior of the S&P 500 Index. The monetary and unified themes perform the best.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00415"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Herding effect of both global and local crises in BRICS countries","authors":"Marija Tatomir, Norio Hibiki","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research addresses the asymmetric acknowledgment given to local versus global crises, particularly within the BRICS nations. Local crises often surpass global events in their impact but remain underexplored. Using a comprehensive approach combining Financial and Economic, Public Sentiment, and Governance data, the research applies a novel Axiom and Inference model to identify overlooked crises. Results indicate that local crises in BRICS countries have measurable impacts exceeding global benchmarks, with distinctive patterns of herding behaviour: China primarily responds to global crises, India reacts equally to both, and Brazil, Russia, and South Africa exhibit stronger herding during local crises. The findings challenge traditional crisis frameworks, emphasizing the need to recognize and address local and non-financial crises to mitigate their potential escalation into global phenomena.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00407"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Energy uncertainty and Firm Performance: Does ESG matter?","authors":"Siddhartha Barman, Jitendra Mahakud","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00413","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the influence of ESG performance on the relationship between firm performance and global energy uncertainty (EUI). Our primary objective is to examine the manner in which the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors influences the relationship between firm performance and EUI. This objective was accomplished by employing a comprehensive dataset that encompassed 50 nations, and spanned eight years (2014–2021). The results reveal that EUI has a detrimental effect on the performance of firms, as the uncertainties induced by EUI foster a culture of risk aversion, which in turn causes firms to postpone their investment in long-term projects. In contrast, the analysis emphasises a positive correlation between ESG and EUI-firm performance relationship, suggesting that firms with robust ESG performance are more likely to invest due to improved reputation, cost reduction, and sustainable market access even in times of energy related uncertainty such as oil price volatility and other energy price surges. The novelty of this research lies in its holistic approach to examining the interconnected dynamics between EUI and firm performance, and the moderating influence of ESG. The findings offer practical guidance for investors and corporate managers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00413"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143642829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Factors influencing asymmetries in Saudi Arabia's housing market","authors":"Amirouche Chelghoum , Fayçal Boumimez , Mouyad Alsamara","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The article aims to examine the determinants of the asymmetries in the housing prices index (HPI) in 13 Saudi Arabian administrative regions. The authors employ a panel Vector Auto-regressions during the period 2014Q1-2023Q4 to measure the role of speculative and fundamental determinants in <em>HPI</em> growth across 13 regions. Furthermore, we use Least Square Dummy Variable method for the period 2015–2021 to analyze the asymmetry impact of region-specific determinants (economic, demographic, urbanization, geographic, and cultural variables) on <em>HPI</em> growth in 13 admirative regions. The results from the panel VAR model show that the reginal house prices growth is determined by the backward-speculative component (HPI's past values), the forward-looking speculation (Consumer Confidence Index), and the fundamentals variables (oil prices, employment, real estate loans, regional inflation, money supply, and building cost index). Furthermore, cross-section analysis using <em>LSDV</em> method reveals that the asymmetries in the <em>HPI</em> growth across 13 administrative regions is determined by the region-specific variables. These include backward-looking behavior, inflation, labor participation, population, health services quality, household size, inverse land supply, seaside density, temperature, and culture density. This study offers three key contributions to the literature. First, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study that analyzes the asymmetries across Saudi Arabian regional housing markets. Second, while most studies focus on backward-looking speculation, overlooking forward-looking speculative factor, this analysis includes both. Third, the climate, geographical, and cultural determinants are largely ignored by the literature but this study incorporates these variables in the cross-section analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00412"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143577504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Henrik Müller , Boris Blagov , Torsten Schmidt , Jonas Rieger , Carsten Jentsch
{"title":"The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks","authors":"Henrik Müller , Boris Blagov , Torsten Schmidt , Jonas Rieger , Carsten Jentsch","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political shocks impact the economy in different ways, depending of their nature. To capture these effects effectively, we present the Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) based on German newspaper content. This approach combines the time-inherent stability of simple counts of articles with the thematic openness and flexibility of topic models. Using the dynamic RollingLDA technique facilitates the close-to-real-time identification of both the magnitude of an uncertainty shock and its specific characteristics. Hence, the UPI could prove highly useful for economic forecasters and policymakers, since it renders possible more timely and targeted policy reactions.</div><div>Employing a Bayesian VAR approach, we analyze the effects of various UPI shocks on fixed investment and other macroeconomic variables. Our results document the asymmetric nature of uncertainty shocks, as their consequences are dependent on the respective sources of uncertainty. We find that international shocks only have weak effects on the German macroeconomy, while domestic policy shocks prove to be highly significant. These results markedly differ from earlier studies that, in the case of Germany, tend to maintain the opposite.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00410"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shoaib Ali , Ghulame Rubbaniy , Costas Syriopoulos , Kienpin Tee
{"title":"Asymmetric relationship between diversification and liquidity creation: Empirical evidence from GCC","authors":"Shoaib Ali , Ghulame Rubbaniy , Costas Syriopoulos , Kienpin Tee","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how bank diversification affects liquidity creation by using the bank level data of GCC countries. We use data from 205 banks in GCC over the period of 2005–2019. To test the hypothesized relationship, we employ the GMM methodological framework. The findings of the study reveal that both income and asset diversification adversely affect the narrow and broad measure of banks' liquidity creation. However, funding diversification positively(negatively) influences the broad(narrow) measure of liquidity creation. The results highlight that bank diversification is a double-edged sword; although it can help in reducing risk, but it also vanishes the banks' ability to create liquidity. However, the in-depth and detailed analyses reveal that the impact is asymmetrical across large, small, well-capitalized, and undercapitalized banks. Furthermore, comparing the normal and crisis periods highlights that banks behave differently in different economic conditions. The results have several implications for the bank managers and decision makers; they must consider the trade-off between liquidity creation and level of diversification. Additionally, the asymmetry in results implies that managers must consider the level/bank's specific characteristics while making such strategic decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00409"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can fear of currency appreciation gear up reserve accretion?","authors":"Keerthana Sunny George , M. Ramachandran","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00408","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00408","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in the foreign exchange market has preference asymmetry and also attempts to find out whether reserve accumulation is significantly an outcome of such an asymmetric intervention. In this regard, we construct quarterly models of reserve demand wherein shocks to rupee appreciation and depreciation with their pace are included to capture the asymmetry in intervention, apart from incorporating certain key control variables as determinants. The econometric estimates obtained from the autoregressive distributed lag model confirm that intervention reflects asymmetric preference; the authority seems to tame rupee appreciation more aggressively than rupee depreciation of the same magnitude. Moreover, the reaction to pace of rupee appreciation is found to be much stronger than to pace of rupee depreciation; thus, providing additional support for the asymmetry in intervention. Further, the empirical results are subjected to robustness check and the evidence remains robust to an alternative definition of reserves. The overall evidence, thus, suggests that there is a fear of currency appreciation, which appears to be one of the important factors behind the large stockpile of reserves in India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00408"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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