Journal of Economic Asymmetries最新文献

Conditional forecast for public debt and threshold effects: Evidence from South EU countries 公共债务的条件预测和门槛效应：来自南欧国家的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00430

Dimitrios Asteriou , Dimitrios Koufopoulos , Konstantinos Spanos

{"title":"Conditional forecast for public debt and threshold effects: Evidence from South EU countries","authors":"Dimitrios Asteriou , Dimitrios Koufopoulos , Konstantinos Spanos","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we employ a Bayesian Seemingly Unrelated regression (SUR) model for the South EU countries to make a conditional forecast for the public debt in a medium term-horizon (six years ahead). Our forecast incorporates multiple macroeconomic shocks, specifically: (i) fiscal austerity, captured through changes in government budget balances; (ii) the international business cycle, proxied by US GDP growth; and (iii) energy cost shocks, proxied by fluctuations in global oil prices. Adopting various scenarios, the results show that lower budget deficit and higher economic growth lead to the fastest downward debt trajectory. The findings also suggest that the optimum level of budget deficit limit is 2.7 % of GDP and is achieved when government expenditures and revenue are lower than 40.9 % and 38.19 % respectively. Interestingly, the international business cycle plays a fundamental role, since economic growth of the South EU countries exerts even more pressure to debt reduction when US GDP growth is higher than 3 %. The effect of inflation on debt conditioned by energy cost, the results indicate that inflation may cause more debt when oil price is high, but this effect seems to be for a short-term period. The main policy implication from the results is that the downward trajectory of debt hinges on sustainable fiscal limits and economic expansion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00430"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144536128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Product market power, informational asymmetries and stock liquidity: Evidence from Indian firms 产品市场力量、信息不对称与股票流动性：来自印度公司的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00429

Tinu Iype Jacob , Sunil Paul

{"title":"Product market power, informational asymmetries and stock liquidity: Evidence from Indian firms","authors":"Tinu Iype Jacob , Sunil Paul","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of product market power on stock liquidity against the backdrop of rising market power and global financial market integration. It also explores the nonlinearities associated with this relationship. In addition, we examine the interaction of firm size and leverage with market power and how it shapes the market power–stock liquidity relationship. The study uses a firm-year panel of 865 NSE-listed firms from India over the period 2011–2021, and employs panel regression techniques to analyze these. Product market power is measured using price-cost markups, and stock liquidity is captured using the inverse of the illiquidity ratio and share turnover. The analysis indicates an inverted U-shaped relationship between product market power and stock liquidity. Results also highlight the role of informational asymmetries and strategic opacity in this relationship. Further, the asymmetric role of leverage and firm size in the influence of product market power on stock liquidity is confirmed. The impact of product market power on stock liquidity and the moderating/mediating influence of informational asymmetries and leverage can have significant implications for the design of policies by the firms and authorities that monitor the competitiveness of markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00429"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144522327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The macroeconomic effects of climate policy uncertainty: Evidence from Portugal 气候政策不确定性的宏观经济影响：来自葡萄牙的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00426

Hugo Morão

引用次数: 0

On the link between U.S. national debt and income distribution: Asymmetric evidence from state level data 论美国国债与收入分配之间的关系：来自州一级数据的不对称证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00428

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee , Mehrnoosh Hasanzade , Huseyin Karamelikli

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risks on energy Trade: Divergent vulnerabilities in emerging vs. advanced economies 地缘政治风险对能源贸易的不对称影响：新兴经济体与发达经济体的不同脆弱性

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00427

Chokri Zehri , Abdullah Alsadan , Latifa Saleh ben Ammar

{"title":"Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risks on energy Trade: Divergent vulnerabilities in emerging vs. advanced economies","authors":"Chokri Zehri , Abdullah Alsadan , Latifa Saleh ben Ammar","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the system-wide consequences of rising geopolitical risks (GPR) on global energy trade, emphasizing asymmetric vulnerabilities between emerging market economies (EMEs) and advanced economies (AEs)—a critical gap in existing scholarship. Combining autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and impulse response analyses on 55 countries (1990–2023), we assess how geopolitical tensions disrupt energy trade dynamics, accounting for global volatility and domestic economic conditions. Our findings uncover marked asymmetries: while geopolitical risks persistently suppress energy trade, with long-term effects outweighing transient shocks, EMEs are disproportionately destabilized due to their heavy reliance on energy exports and weaker institutional capacity. AEs, conversely, demonstrate greater resilience through diversified economies, strategic reserves, and policy flexibility, though post-2008 geopolitical fragmentation and financial instability intensify disruptions across all economies. Impulse response simulations reveal that geopolitical shocks trigger sharper declines in energy trade flows for EMEs, with steeper and more prolonged contractions than AEs. Compounding these unequal burdens, escalating trade taxes strain EMEs’ fiscal stability and energy security, whereas AEs deploy fiscal buffers to cushion shocks. By exposing how geopolitical risks cascade through energy systems, the study underscores the urgency of multilateral cooperation to address structurally embedded asymmetries, particularly the fragility of EMEs in global energy frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00427"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144242925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes: A global cross-country analysis 面对不确定性冲击的能源价格动态和汇率制度的作用：全球跨国分析

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00425

António Afonso , José Alves , João Jalles , Sofia Monteiro

{"title":"Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes: A global cross-country analysis","authors":"António Afonso , José Alves , João Jalles , Sofia Monteiro","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00425","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00425","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) and global uncertainty (WUI) on energy prices across 185 economies from 1980 to 2023, while accounting for the role of exchange rate regimes. Using a panel fixed-effects model and a panel SVAR framework, we examine whether uncertainty shocks translate into energy price inflation and how exchange rate regimes influence these dynamics. The results indicate that geopolitical risk and global uncertainty have significant effects on energy prices, with stronger price reactions under flexible exchange rate regimes. We further decompose the effects by country classification, revealing that oil-exporting economies and emerging markets exhibit distinct responses. Our findings highlight the importance of exchange rate policies in mitigating uncertainty-driven energy price volatility. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a global empirical perspective on uncertainty-energy price interactions, with relevant implications for policymakers managing exchange rate regimes and energy market stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00425"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Monetary alignment or divergence? - Exchange rates and economic dynamics in non-euro European countries 货币政策趋同还是分化？-非欧元欧洲国家的汇率和经济动态

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00421

Apostolos Kiohos , Nikolaos Stoupos

{"title":"Monetary alignment or divergence? - Exchange rates and economic dynamics in non-euro European countries","authors":"Apostolos Kiohos , Nikolaos Stoupos","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00421","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00421","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The far-reaching impacts of the euro's introduction in 1999 have reshaped Europe's monetary landscape, extending integration even to non-euro economies. The primary aim of this paper is to examine whether the non-euro European economies are monetarily linked to the Euro Area. Using economic indicators from nine European countries, alongside the Eurozone, and employing SVECM models, this research assesses the degree of monetary integration. The empirical findings strongly indicate that the economies of Poland, Romania, Sweden and Norway have been positively bound and highly integrated with the Eurozone since the euro's launch. Moreover, the economies of Czechia and Hungary have demonstrated a steady and increasing level of monetary integration with the Eurozone over time. In contrast, the economies of Iceland, Switzerland, and the UK exhibit monetary divergence from the Eurozone. Based on these findings, the research proposes that Poland and Romania may need to explore the possibility of joining the Euro Area, while Norway and Sweden may (re)consider their stance on potential EU or EMU membership, respectively. The results underscore that the creation of the Eurozone and the circulation of the euro have played a significant role in facilitating and advancing monetary integration across Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00421"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is fiscal countercyclicality growth enhancing? Evidence from developing countries over the period 1990–2019 财政逆周期增长增强了吗？来自发展中国家1990-2019年的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00416

Sami Kallal

{"title":"Is fiscal countercyclicality growth enhancing? Evidence from developing countries over the period 1990–2019","authors":"Sami Kallal","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00416","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00416","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this paper is to analyze the time-varying effect of improving fiscal countercyclicality on growth for a sample of 35 developing countries over the period 1990–2019. By estimating a time-varying coefficient for fiscal countercyclicality, incorporated as a variable in a panel model, we first examine how the public debt ratio and electoral motivations influence the ability to adopt countercyclical policies. Secondly, we show that greater countercyclicality positively affects economic growth and contributes to reducing the output gap, particularly during recessions, by channeling production towards its potential path. Finally, our findings are confirmed across two sub-samples, demonstrating a positive effect on growth before the 2008 crisis and a reduction in the output gap both before and after the crisis. The effect is stronger in the sub-sample characterized by high income, low debt, and strong control of corruption, suggesting that the effectiveness of countercyclical policies depends on macroeconomic and institutional factors.</div><div>Countercyclical fiscal management should therefore be given greater consideration by fiscal policymakers in developing countries, both upstream and downstream.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00416"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143907025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does economic convergence diverge along the income distribution? Evidence from a decile-based analysis 经济趋同是否沿着收入分配而分化？来自十分位数分析的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00419

Marco Amendola

引用次数: 0

Collapsing bubbles in the prices of cryptocurrencies 加密货币价格泡沫破裂

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00420

Chiara Oldani , Giovanni S.F. Bruno , Marcello Signorelli

{"title":"Collapsing bubbles in the prices of cryptocurrencies","authors":"Chiara Oldani , Giovanni S.F. Bruno , Marcello Signorelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the existence of bubbles in the daily prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Ripple (XRP), employing the recursive methods of Phillips et al. (2015) and Phillips et al. (2011) for testing and date-stamping episodes of exuberant behaviour over a period spanning seven years (2018–2024), including the COVID-19 pandemic crisis (2020–2021). The critical values of the tests are computed through the composite wild bootstrap technique by Phillips and Shi (2020) to make them robust to time-varying unconditional heteroscedasticity and the multiplicity issue in recursive tests. Results indicate that the prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies traded on decentralized ledgers, BTC and ETH, exhibited multiple episodes of exuberant behaviour, unambiguously for BTC and depending on the tests for ETH. Bubbles detected in the prices of BTC were due to the halving of the crypto, to market exuberance and to the pandemic crisis; bubbles detected on ETH prices were due to the launch of NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain, and to the change in investors’ expectations (from exuberant to pessimistic); the change in the stance of monetary policy burst the bubbles of BTC and ETH prices in 2024. No test supports the exuberance of XRP that is traded on a centralized ledger; weekly data confirm the absence of multiple bubbles. By looking at the presence of bubbles in these different digital ecosystems, we also consider how the technological differences can impact, possibly asymmetrically, bubbles' formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00420"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143877358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0