Journal of Economic Asymmetries最新文献_第2页

Conditional forecast for public debt and threshold effects: Evidence from South EU countries 公共债务的条件预测和门槛效应：来自南欧国家的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00430

Dimitrios Asteriou , Dimitrios Koufopoulos , Konstantinos Spanos

{"title":"Conditional forecast for public debt and threshold effects: Evidence from South EU countries","authors":"Dimitrios Asteriou , Dimitrios Koufopoulos , Konstantinos Spanos","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00430","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we employ a Bayesian Seemingly Unrelated regression (SUR) model for the South EU countries to make a conditional forecast for the public debt in a medium term-horizon (six years ahead). Our forecast incorporates multiple macroeconomic shocks, specifically: (i) fiscal austerity, captured through changes in government budget balances; (ii) the international business cycle, proxied by US GDP growth; and (iii) energy cost shocks, proxied by fluctuations in global oil prices. Adopting various scenarios, the results show that lower budget deficit and higher economic growth lead to the fastest downward debt trajectory. The findings also suggest that the optimum level of budget deficit limit is 2.7 % of GDP and is achieved when government expenditures and revenue are lower than 40.9 % and 38.19 % respectively. Interestingly, the international business cycle plays a fundamental role, since economic growth of the South EU countries exerts even more pressure to debt reduction when US GDP growth is higher than 3 %. The effect of inflation on debt conditioned by energy cost, the results indicate that inflation may cause more debt when oil price is high, but this effect seems to be for a short-term period. The main policy implication from the results is that the downward trajectory of debt hinges on sustainable fiscal limits and economic expansion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00430"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144536128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The asymmetric effects of medical tourism and information technology on economic growth: evidence from panel quantile regression 医疗旅游和信息技术对经济增长的不对称影响：来自面板分位数回归的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00433

Chor-Foon Tang , Karoon Suksonghong

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risks on energy Trade: Divergent vulnerabilities in emerging vs. advanced economies 地缘政治风险对能源贸易的不对称影响：新兴经济体与发达经济体的不同脆弱性

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00427

Chokri Zehri , Abdullah Alsadan , Latifa Saleh ben Ammar

{"title":"Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risks on energy Trade: Divergent vulnerabilities in emerging vs. advanced economies","authors":"Chokri Zehri , Abdullah Alsadan , Latifa Saleh ben Ammar","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00427","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the system-wide consequences of rising geopolitical risks (GPR) on global energy trade, emphasizing asymmetric vulnerabilities between emerging market economies (EMEs) and advanced economies (AEs)—a critical gap in existing scholarship. Combining autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and impulse response analyses on 55 countries (1990–2023), we assess how geopolitical tensions disrupt energy trade dynamics, accounting for global volatility and domestic economic conditions. Our findings uncover marked asymmetries: while geopolitical risks persistently suppress energy trade, with long-term effects outweighing transient shocks, EMEs are disproportionately destabilized due to their heavy reliance on energy exports and weaker institutional capacity. AEs, conversely, demonstrate greater resilience through diversified economies, strategic reserves, and policy flexibility, though post-2008 geopolitical fragmentation and financial instability intensify disruptions across all economies. Impulse response simulations reveal that geopolitical shocks trigger sharper declines in energy trade flows for EMEs, with steeper and more prolonged contractions than AEs. Compounding these unequal burdens, escalating trade taxes strain EMEs’ fiscal stability and energy security, whereas AEs deploy fiscal buffers to cushion shocks. By exposing how geopolitical risks cascade through energy systems, the study underscores the urgency of multilateral cooperation to address structurally embedded asymmetries, particularly the fragility of EMEs in global energy frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00427"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144242925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Green transitions and asymmetric volatility spillovers: A time-varying GAS copula analysis of clean and fossil energy markets 绿色转型和不对称波动溢出：清洁能源和化石能源市场的时变GAS耦合分析

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00439

Mehdi Mili , Ebrahim Sohrab , Tahar Hamza

{"title":"Green transitions and asymmetric volatility spillovers: A time-varying GAS copula analysis of clean and fossil energy markets","authors":"Mehdi Mili , Ebrahim Sohrab , Tahar Hamza","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00439","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00439","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the asymmetric and time-varying volatility connectedness between clean and fossil energy markets, focusing on nonlinear dependencies and tail risk dynamics. Using a GJR-GARCH model combined with a time-varying GAS copula, we analyze co-movements and tail dependence between clean energy indices and three major fossil fuel markets: Brent Crude, Natural Gas, and Heating Oil. This approach captures features like fat tails, volatility clustering, and asymmetric spillovers, offering deeper insights into inter-market relationships under stress. Results reveal stronger tail co-movements and volatility spillovers during downturns — patterns that static models often miss. The GAS copula framework effectively tracks evolving correlations and volatilities, outperforming constant Copula models. Risk assessments using Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall emphasize the asymmetric nature of downside risk, showing that diversification benefits vary across market regimes. These findings emphasize the need to model asymmetries for more resilient portfolio construction and climate-sensitive risk management in energy finance. They carry important implications for energy portfolio diversification, climate policy design, and the management of systemic financial risk in energy markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00439"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does female participation improve firm value? Board gender diversity reform and asymmetric market responses 女性参与是否能提升公司价值？董事会性别多元化改革和不对称的市场反应

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00440

Sofia Vidalis , Iordanis Petsas , Jinghan Cai , Runqing Guan , Yunzhi Lu , Aram Balagyozyan

引用次数: 0

Regime-switching model estimates the impact of bank liquidity on bank performance across G20 countries: a moderate role for solvency, total loans, and total debt 制度转换模型估计了银行流动性对G20国家银行绩效的影响：偿付能力、贷款总额和债务总额的作用适中

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00442

Malek Abaab , Mohamed Drira , Kamel Helali

{"title":"Regime-switching model estimates the impact of bank liquidity on bank performance across G20 countries: a moderate role for solvency, total loans, and total debt","authors":"Malek Abaab , Mohamed Drira , Kamel Helali","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00442","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00442","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs a Panel Smooth Transition Autoregressive (PSTAR) model to investigate the impact of bank liquidity on bank performance, using a sample of 113 banks across 14 G20 countries from 2000 to 2022. The empirical findings reveal a nonlinear relationship characterized by two LDR thresholds at 51.558 and 54.022. In the first regime, bank liquidity exerts an adverse effect on performance, reflecting the costs of excessive idle reserves. In the second regime, the impact of liquidity turns positive, albeit moderate, indicating that banks begin to deploy their liquid resources more efficiently. In the third regime, the positive effect intensifies, with a stronger coefficient, demonstrating that optimal liquidity levels can significantly enhance profitability. Robustness checks using the system GMM approach confirm this nonlinear, inverted-U relationship, with a positive effect of 0.067 and a negative squared term of 0.64e<sup>−3</sup>, highlighting diminishing marginal returns to liquidity at higher levels. Furthermore, the analysis uncovers significant, positive interaction effects: liquidity combined with solvency strengthens bank performance; liquidity deployed through loans amplifies profitability; and the interaction between liquidity and debt ratios also positively affects performance. These findings indicate that regulators and central banks should adopt flexible liquidity policies that encourage banks to deploy excess funds productively while maintaining adequate buffers, with substantial capital and prudent leverage frameworks enhancing financial stability and sustainable profitability across G20 banking systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00442"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145464864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stock market sensitivities to European monetary policy 股市对欧洲货币政策的敏感性

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00437

Juan M. Nave, Javier Ruiz

引用次数: 0

Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes: A global cross-country analysis 面对不确定性冲击的能源价格动态和汇率制度的作用：全球跨国分析

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00425

António Afonso , José Alves , João Jalles , Sofia Monteiro

{"title":"Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes: A global cross-country analysis","authors":"António Afonso , José Alves , João Jalles , Sofia Monteiro","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00425","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00425","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) and global uncertainty (WUI) on energy prices across 185 economies from 1980 to 2023, while accounting for the role of exchange rate regimes. Using a panel fixed-effects model and a panel SVAR framework, we examine whether uncertainty shocks translate into energy price inflation and how exchange rate regimes influence these dynamics. The results indicate that geopolitical risk and global uncertainty have significant effects on energy prices, with stronger price reactions under flexible exchange rate regimes. We further decompose the effects by country classification, revealing that oil-exporting economies and emerging markets exhibit distinct responses. Our findings highlight the importance of exchange rate policies in mitigating uncertainty-driven energy price volatility. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a global empirical perspective on uncertainty-energy price interactions, with relevant implications for policymakers managing exchange rate regimes and energy market stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00425"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The macroeconomic effects of climate policy uncertainty: Evidence from Portugal 气候政策不确定性的宏观经济影响：来自葡萄牙的证据

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00426

Hugo Morão

引用次数: 0

Portfolio investment analysis and asymmetric shock transmission among green investment, fixed income, and commodity markets 证券投资分析与绿色投资、固定收益和商品市场的不对称冲击传导

Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00432

Abdul Qadeer , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Mina Sami , Lieven De Moor

{"title":"Portfolio investment analysis and asymmetric shock transmission among green investment, fixed income, and commodity markets","authors":"Abdul Qadeer , Ahmed Imran Hunjra , Mina Sami , Lieven De Moor","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores asymmetric volatility transmission and connectedness across green investment, fixed income, and commodity markets using the novel R<sup>2</sup> decomposed DCC-GARCH connectedness measures. We further evaluate the implications of connectedness patterns for portfolio analysis and risk management. We find that bond indices act as dominant transmitters of volatility, while green and commodity indices mostly absorb shocks. The connectedness patterns shift significantly during periods of global stress, which confirms the time-varying and asymmetric nature of volatility across markets. We report that the S&P Global Clean Energy Index shows greater sensitivity to negative shocks and higher volatility during crisis episodes. The portfolio analysis, Sharpe ratios, and downside risk measures consistently favor the FTSE World Government Bond Index, which receives the highest weight allocation. The results support the construction of stable and low risk portfolios by assigning core weight to bonds and cautious exposure to green and commodity sectors. This study provides meaningful implications for portfolio managers and policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"32 ","pages":"Article e00432"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0