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Dynamic Information Aggregation: Learning from the Past 动态信息聚合:从过去学习
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3687529
Zhengxin Huo, Marcelo Pedroni
{"title":"Dynamic Information Aggregation: Learning from the Past","authors":"Zhengxin Huo, Marcelo Pedroni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3687529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3687529","url":null,"abstract":"In an environment with dispersed information, how much can agents learn from past endogenous aggregate outcomes such as prices or output? We show that, in a rational expectations equilibrium, two possible regimes can arise endogenously: a perfect revealing regime and a confounding regime. The economic fundamental can be perfectly inferred in the former but is only partially revealed in the latter. The confounding regime arises only when general equilibrium feedback effects are strong enough. Then, even when the past aggregate outcomes are perfectly observed, the effects of informational frictions are persistent over time. Furthermore, in the confounding regime, the aggregate outcomes do not permit a finite-state representation, and they display an initial under-reaction relative to their perfect information counterparts followed by a delayed overreaction. In a standard New Keynesian model, we show that the confounding regime is more likely to arise under a dovish monetary policy rule.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"164 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132245984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Economic Crisis in Azerbaijan: Delayed Reforms, Fluctuating Oil Prices, and the Pandemic 阿塞拜疆的经济危机:改革推迟、油价波动和疫情
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-07-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3787082
G. Ibadoghlu
{"title":"Economic Crisis in Azerbaijan: Delayed Reforms, Fluctuating Oil Prices, and the Pandemic","authors":"G. Ibadoghlu","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3787082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3787082","url":null,"abstract":"The Azerbaijani economy is facing a massive crisis due to the systemic failure of the government to enact reforms. Global oil prices drop and the COVID-19 pandemic is widening the chasm between the haves and have-nots.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114504580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States 新冠肺炎引发的经济不确定性:英国和美国的比较
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3637652
U. Pata
{"title":"COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States","authors":"U. Pata","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3637652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3637652","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country and the increase in the number of cases and deaths outside the country may vary. To examine this, the study employs the bootstrap ARDL cointegration approach from March 8, 2020 to May 24, 2020. According to the bootstrap ARDL results, a long-run equilibrium relationship is confirmed for five out of the ten models. The long-term coefficients obtained from the ARDL models suggest that an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths outside of the UK and the US has a significant effect on economic policy uncertainty. The US is more affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. The UK, on the other hand, is more negatively affected by the increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths outside the country than the increase in the number of cases. Moreover, another significant finding from the study demonstrates that COVID-19 is a factor of great uncertainty for both countries in the short-term.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121221280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
The Money View vs. the Accounting View: The Capitol Hill Babysitting Cooperative Revisited 金钱观与会计观:重新审视国会山保姆合作社
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3628707
Oliver Davey, Antti Jokinen
{"title":"The Money View vs. the Accounting View: The Capitol Hill Babysitting Cooperative Revisited","authors":"Oliver Davey, Antti Jokinen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3628707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3628707","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new way of looking at transactions involving goods and money. Building on earlier work in which money is identified as a recordkeeping device or “memory”, we re-interpret the basic transaction — traditionally viewed as an exchange of goods and money — as a one-sided “gift” of goods that is recorded on a shared ledger. Money is no longer an object or “medium” that is exchanged. In fact, there is no recognizable concept of money in the theory we develop, yet all monetary phenomena, such as bank accounts and currency (tokens), remain intact and form the recordkeeping apparatus. This enables us to describe environments, which have hitherto been considered monetary, in terms of a pure credit economy. It also appears that this approach solves some common monetary puzzles.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"354 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134004742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Análisis Macroeconómico De Francia (Macroeconomic Analysis of France) 法国宏观经济分析(法国宏观经济分析)
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3670700
Asier Gómez Marroquín
{"title":"Análisis Macroeconómico De Francia (Macroeconomic Analysis of France)","authors":"Asier Gómez Marroquín","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3670700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3670700","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish abstract:</b> En esta monografía se realiza un análisis macroeconómico de Francia siguiendo la siguiente estructura: resumen ejecutivo; situación actual; riesgos y perspectivas; y análisis de la política económica. Coincide con la estructura típica del informe del Fondo Monetario Internacional, artículo IV.<br><br><b>English abstract:</b> This monograph describes a macroeconomic analysis of France. It is carried out following the following structure: executive summary; current situation; risks and prospects; and analysis of economic policy. It matches the typical structure of the IMF report, article IV.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126841608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
American Society Through the Prism of the Walker Tariff of 1846 透过1846年沃克关税的棱镜看美国社会
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12404
C. Rowe
{"title":"American Society Through the Prism of the Walker Tariff of 1846","authors":"C. Rowe","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12404","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses the reduction in duties under US President James Polk, enshrined in the Walker Tariff of 1846, as a proxy for understanding the interrelationship between the executive, the legislature, and broader societal developments. It concludes that congressional debates on the subject were constrained by three parameters: the perceived threat of sectionalism, fears of international belligerence, and the legacy of colonialism. First, memories of the earlier Nullification Crisis of 1833 determined that the political discourse was characterised by a striking emphasis on national unity. Second, contrary to the usual association of free trade with peace, the Walker Tariff was necessarily debated in terms of compatibility with ongoing warfare. Lastly, Britain's shadow coloured congressional language, with both sides exploiting simultaneous reductions of tariffs in the former colonising power to advance their rhetorical ends.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130009529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policies for Transactional De-Dollarization: A Laboratory Study 交易性去美元化政策:实验室研究
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3606014
Johar Arrieta Vidal, David Florián Hoyle, Kristian López Vargas, V. Morales
{"title":"Policies for Transactional De-Dollarization: A Laboratory Study","authors":"Johar Arrieta Vidal, David Florián Hoyle, Kristian López Vargas, V. Morales","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3606014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3606014","url":null,"abstract":"Partial currency substitution typically occurs in small economies amid economic crises, when the local currency loses some of its essential functions and a foreign currency, usually the US Dollar, is widely adopted. Interestingly, the coexistence of two currencies often persists after macroeconomic stability has been restored, which imposes challenges to the conduct of monetary policy. Central banks have responded by applying de-dollarization policies. This paper studies the effectiveness of three of them: (1) taxes on transactions in foreign currency among domestic agents, (2) storage costs on foreign currency holdings, and (3) information on the acceptance rate of the foreign currency among local agents. We extend the model in Matsuyama et al. (1993) to study the effects of these policies, both theoretically and experimentally. We contribute to the theoretical literature by characterizing a new circulation regime where agents use the foreign currency solely for international trade and settle domestic transactions exclusively in local currency. Our experimental evidence suggests that both taxes and storage costs reduce the overall acceptability of foreign currency in international and domestic transactions (around 40 percent in both cases). Information treatment does not have a significant impact relative to baseline.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132411094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Central Bank Digital Currency with Adjustable Interest Rate in Small Open Economies 小型开放经济体中利率可调的央行数字货币
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3605918
Ammu George, Taojun Xie, J. Alba
{"title":"Central Bank Digital Currency with Adjustable Interest Rate in Small Open Economies","authors":"Ammu George, Taojun Xie, J. Alba","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3605918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3605918","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the economic consequences of an interest-bearing design of the Central-Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), and extend the discussion to an open-economy context with trade and capital flows. We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to simulate a baseline scenario with only a primary monetary policy rule, and two counter-factual scenarios with a primary monetary rule together with a secondary CBDC rule associated with adjustable interest-bearing CBDC — the price rule or the quantity rule. Our simulations show that 1) CBDC with an adjustable interest rate is welfare-improving; 2) a quantity rule delivers the best welfare outcome for society, but with uneven distributional effects between households and financial investors; 3) exchange rate movements and inflation are more stable with the adjustable interest rate; 4) imperfect substitutability between CBDC and bank deposits is the key for the effectiveness of using the CBDC as a secondary monetary policy instrument.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129292132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
How to Deal with a Coronavirus Economic Recession? 如何应对冠状病毒引发的经济衰退?
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3604351
V. Popov
{"title":"How to Deal with a Coronavirus Economic Recession?","authors":"V. Popov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3604351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3604351","url":null,"abstract":"2020 world economic downturn associated with the restrictions intended to fight COVID-19 pandemic is a structural recession caused by adverse supply shock. It is similar to recessions caused (or aggravated) by post war conversion of defense industries, by oil price shocks (1973, 1979, 2007), and by the transition to the market in post-communist countries in the 1990s (transformational recession). Whereas traditional Keynesian policy (absorption of adverse supply shock by means of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy) can help, best results are achieved by government industrial policies promoting restructuring – transferring resources (capital and labor) from the contracting industries to the expanding. The experience of China and some other East Asian countries that seem to be more successful in overcoming the coronavirus recession provides additional evidence.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123415961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Sidedness and the Urgency to Borrow in the Interbank Market 银行间市场借贷的紧迫性
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3578858
Celso Brunetti, J. Harris, Shawn Mankad
{"title":"Sidedness and the Urgency to Borrow in the Interbank Market","authors":"Celso Brunetti, J. Harris, Shawn Mankad","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3578858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3578858","url":null,"abstract":"We study the motivations of traders in the interbank market around the 2007-09 subprime crisis. We develop a new methodology that measures the funding liquidity needs of banks and reveals the underlying urgency to trading. We find that the dispersion of beliefs and urgency to borrow lead sovereign CDS spreads and react to non-standard central bank interventions introduced during the crisis. Our results map the linkages between the interbank market and sovereigns and shed light on the channels that give rise to the sovereign-bank nexus.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"77 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133468817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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