ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Determinacy and E-stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound","authors":"Yunjong Eo, Nigel McClung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3832472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3832472","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the uniqueness and learnability of rational expectations equilibrium when the policy rate is occasionally pegged at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We consider a model that features recurring, transient ZLB regimes and compare various interest rate rules which respond to inflation, price level, and average inflation in addition to output. In this environment, determinacy conditions ensure a unique equilibrium, given the recurrence of ZLB events, and E-stability conditions can rule out deflationary spirals under learning. We find that price level targeting, including nominal income targeting as its special case, promotes determinacy and E-stability the most effectively among the policy frameworks. Average inflation targeting can promote determinacy and E-stability very effectively, provided that the measure of average inflation is sufficiently backward looking.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"216 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121624309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Let's Face It: Quantifying the Impact of Nonverbal Communication in FOMC Press Conferences","authors":"Filippo Curti, Sophia Kazinnik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3782239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3782239","url":null,"abstract":"We apply facial recognition analysis to FOMC press conference videos and quantify one of the most important aspects of nonverbal communication - facial expressions. Using minute-level data, we align our nonverbal communication measure with a set of financial assets to estimate the impact of the Fed Chairs' facial expressions on investor expectations. We find that investors adversely react to negative expressions revealed during the press conference, even when controlling for the verbal component of the press conference and additional explanatory variables. This work sets forth a new way of capturing soft information embedded in central bank communication.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132738998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic and Financial Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Review and Analysis","authors":"S. Hammer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3772327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3772327","url":null,"abstract":"One year ago, both the World Health Organization and the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services declared the outbreak of COVID-19 to be a public health emergency. Within weeks, confirmed cases were announced in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Responses in the form of lockdowns, travel restrictions, widespread cancellation of events, facility and workplace closures, and agricultural disruption resulted in vast social and economic disruption. These disruptions led to stress and volatility in the financial markets and the largest global recession since the Great Depression. While regulatory measures instituted since the Great Financial Crisis have increased resiliency in the core of the financial system, the COVID-19 shocks nevertheless revealed systemic financial problems. The crisis also saw unprecedented intervention by central banks in the form of credit and liquidity facilities. Combined with additional fiscal and monetary policy responses, as well as regulatory intervention, the government responses reached truly unprecedented levels.<br><br>This paper provides a review and framework for policymakers, regulators and educators to evaluate the U.S. financial and economic policy responses undertaken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, it examines several critical areas of financial stability concern that were brought to light during the pandemic: stresses in central clearing counterparties, pre-emptive redemption of money market fund shares by investors in response to broaching of weekly liquid asset levels, and extreme dysfunction in credit and U.S. Treasury markets. Finally, this paper touches on the critical equity and financial inclusion impacts of COVID-19, as an area that deserves urgent attention and the full force of economic and financial policy.<br><br>","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132880193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Post Global Financial Crisis Export Inefficiencies of India: a Baseline for Post COVID Analyses","authors":"Adil Khan Miankhel, K. Kalirajan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3739730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3739730","url":null,"abstract":"During crises, governments resort to extraordinary fiscal and financial measures to mitigate the recessionary impacts of crises. These macroeconomic intervention measures along with aggregate demand and supply shocks and policy choices would affect the exporting environment of a country through many channels. Therefore, to analyze any post COVID pandemic inefficiencies generated due to the government’s policy choices to minimize the impact of COVID, it is important to distinguish the already inherent inefficiencies in the exporting environment to provide a baseline line for comparative purposes. This study investigates the prevalence of inefficiencies during the post GFC period (2010-18) in India. A stochastic frontier gravity model is employed to determine the existence of inefficiencies, its pattern over time and the level of efficiency with respect to each partner country. The first stage found that inefficiencies were already present in the post GFC period, which has increased over time. In the second stage, structural equation modelling was employed with each country efficiency level as dependent variable and five dimensions of the Economic Freedom Index (EFI) as explanatory variables for India and at an aggregate level for importing countries. The second stage found that sound money dimension of EFI affected adversely the exporting environment of India during the period of analysis, which can be mainly attributed to the November 2016 sudden implementation of the demonetization policy by the Indian Government without any prior arrangements for smooth transition to the post policy change situation.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117151505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government Spending Efficiency, Measurement and Applications: A Cross-country Efficiency Dataset","authors":"António Afonso, J. Jalles, Ana Venâncio","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3734216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3734216","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter conducts a review of the literature dealing with overall public sector performance and efficiency, it defines a methodology to assess public sector efficiency and it creates a novel and large cross-sectional panel dataset of government indicators and public sector efficiency scores. The focus is on a balanced sample covering all 36 OECD countries over the time period between 2006 and 2017. First, we define a set of economic and sociodemographic metrics necessary to construct performance composite indicators. Second, we calculate and report a full set of (input and output oriented) efficiency scores based on the performance indicators previously computed.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"12 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126090452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State-dependent Distribution Friction and Monetary Policy","authors":"Dong Cheng, Nam T. Vu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3730638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3730638","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the quantitative importance of endogenous distribution frictions using a dynamic multi-sector model motivated by Corsetti and Dedola (2005). Our benchmark model features distribution frictions that depend on the state of the economy and predicts counter-cyclical distribution margins, which is consistent with the empirical evidence from Brazilian fuel price data. Estimating an augmented model with price and wage rigidities, we attribute the lion's share of such countercyclicality to productivity shocks arising from the service sector. From a policy perspective, we find the endogenous distribution friction significantly amplifies money neutrality as the distribution cost dampens the consumption response to a monetary policy shock. Our counterfactual analyses demonstrate that a model with exogenous distribution frictions cannot replicate this result.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129593357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macroeconomic Analysis of Policies Addressing Coronavirus Pandemic.","authors":"Gohar Sedrakyan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3880005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3880005","url":null,"abstract":"During last two quarters, active macroeconomic policies have been a significant component of the overall response of the U.S. government to the coronavirus pandemic. An analysis of current government policies addressing this short-term shock and the resulting economic impact would be helpful in developing future policies, should similar circumstances arise down the road. We conjecture that the combination of expansionary macroeconomic policies preceding the coronavirus pandemic likely shifted the level of U.S. aggregate economic output beyond the point of macroeconomic equilibrium with full employment. In other words, the start of the Coronavirus pandemic coincided with the macroeconomic phenomenon known as demand-pull inflation. In such economic conditions the level of aggregate output is much higher than the economy can sustain in the long run, but the overheated economy enjoys all the benefits of higher than natural level of national production and low unemployment in the short term. The following economic shutdown driven by growing worries over the limited hospital capacity, which would have become unable to meet the growing needs of hospitalization by Coronavirus patients, caused a severe shift in the demand for economic output, along with sharp declines in personal consumption, business investments, and exports of goods and service. The $2 trillion economic relief package known as the CARES Act of March 2020 softened the adverse economic impact of this shock to some extent. The observation in this brief suggests that the overheated economy absorbed some of the shock produced by the economic shutdown, therefore limiting the devastating impact of the sharp economic contraction.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131671190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Von Reagan lernen – Wirtschaftsexperten misstrauen? (Learn from Reagan – Suspect Economists?)","authors":"J. Straus","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3724154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3724154","url":null,"abstract":"<b>German Abstract:</b> Unter dem Titel „Von Reagan lernen“ haben in der Wochenzeitung „Die Zeit“ vom 18. Dezember 2019 die Ökonomen Kai Konrad und Jörg Rocholl einen Vorschlag zur nachhaltigen Belebung der deutschen Wirtschaft unterbreitet. In Anlehnung an Reagan schlagen sie vor, Unternehmen zu erlauben, „Investitionen sofort oder zumindest deutlich beschleunigt gegen Gewinne zu verrechnen – und nicht erst dann, wenn die Investitionsgüter sich tatsächlich verbrauchen“. Reagan habe damit den USA einen gewaltigen Boom beschert. Der Vorschlag ist überzeugend begründet und wird hoffentlich bei den für die deutsche Wirtschaft Verantwortlichen die nötige Beachtung finden. Den eigentlichen Grund für den vorliegenden Beitrag liefert allerdings nicht der Inhalt, sondern der Titel des Zeit-Artikels, der nicht nur an Ronald Reagan und seine wirtschaftsrelevanten Positionen erinnert, sondern Anlass dazu bietet, auch an Reagans Einschätzung der Rolle der Ökonomen in der Politik zu erinnern und sich mit einigen aktuellen Fragen der Ökonomie, wie Negativzinsen und Abschaffung des Bargeldes, auseinanderzusetzen.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> Under the title “Learn from Reagan”, the economists Kai Konrad and Jörg Rocholl in the weekly newspaper “Die Zeit” of 18 December 2019 published a proposal for a sustainable stimulation of the German economy. Following Reagan, they proposed to allow companies “to offset their investments immediately, or at least significantly accelerated, against their profits – and not only then, when the capital goods are actually used up.” Thanks to Reagan’s move, the USA had experienced an enormous boom. The proposal is convincingly reasoned and will hopefully enjoy the necessary attention by those responsible for the German economy. The actual reason for this contribution, however, is not the substance of “Die Zeit” article, but its title. It does not only remind us of Ronald Reagan’s economy relevant positions, but gives reason to recall Reagan’s assessment of the role, economists play in the politics. Moreover, also to address some topical issues of the current economy, such as negative interest rates or ideas on abolition of cash.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129245285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Maker's Credibility with Predetermined Instruments for Forward-Looking Targets","authors":"Jean-Bernard Chatelain, K. Ralf","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3743010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3743010","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the present paper is to provide criteria for a central bank of how to choose among different monetary-policy rules when caring about a number of policy targets such as the output gap and expected inflation. Special attention is given to the question if policy instruments are predetermined or only forward looking. Using the new-Keynesian Phillips curve with a cost-push-shock policy-transmission mechanism, the forward-looking case implies an extreme lack of robustness and of credibility of stabilization policy. The backward-looking case is such that the simple-rule parameters can be the solution of Ramsey optimal policy under limited commitment. As a consequence, we suggest to model explicitly the rational behavior of the policy maker with Ramsey optimal policy, rather than to use simple rules with an ambiguous assumption leading to policy advice that is neither robust nor credible.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"29 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123589211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Industrial Interaction and Credit Constraint: An Implication of Industrial Credit Policy in China","authors":"Zhongchao Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3691012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3691012","url":null,"abstract":"I construct a multi-industry model to study the effects of industrial credit policies. This model features both industrial interaction and firm heterogeneity, and is calibrated to China's data. According to the calibrated parameters, in China, downstream firms face tighter credit constraint than upstream firms do. Based on China's current credit conditions, industrial credit policy experiments reveal three main results. First, upstream and downstream credit subsidies generate similar capital and labor productivity. Second, credit subsidy in a certain industry will substitute labor with capital in this industry, which is different from the case without credit constraint. Third, industrial credit policy will lead to resource reallocation among industries, and the extent of reallocation depends on the elasticity of substitution among intermediate inputs.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"520 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121977029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}