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Viral Shocks to the World Economy 对世界经济的病毒性冲击
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4120217
K. Kholodilin, Malte Rieth
{"title":"Viral Shocks to the World Economy","authors":"K. Kholodilin, Malte Rieth","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4120217","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4120217","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a news-based viral disease index and study the dynamic impact of epidemics on the world economy, using structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks have persistently negative effects, both directly and indirectly, on affected countries and on world output. The shocks lead to a significant fall in global trade, employment, and consumer prices for three quarters, and the losses are permanent. In contrast, retail sales increase. Country studies suggest that the direct effects are four times larger than the indirect effects and that demand-side dominate supply-side contractions. Overall, the findings indicate that expansionary macroeconomic policy is an appropriate crisis response.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116476211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A Critical COVID-19 Economic Policy Tool: Retrospective Insurance COVID-19关键的经济政策工具:追溯保险
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-03-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3558667
A. Milne
{"title":"A Critical COVID-19 Economic Policy Tool: Retrospective Insurance","authors":"A. Milne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3558667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3558667","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic is a major economic shock. With no comparable event having occurred since the 1918 Spanish Flu, and a rapidly changing public health situation, economic policy makers are largely having to improvise their responses. This note assesses the scale of this large shock, suggesting that it is about 10% of global GDP so around five times as large as the credit and liquidity problems that created the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. It then examines the economic policy response, suggesting that to be as effective as possible the response must address two distinct objectives: offset the deflationary economic shock and provide targeted support to those most directly affected. It proposes a surprisingly inexpensive framework – “retrospective insurance” at a net additional cost only 2% of GDP – that can guide the allocation of public resources to ensure no business goes under as a result of the pandemic and all who merit protection get support.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134235646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
eBook Short Notes on the Economy during the COVID-19 Crisis. Vol-1 2019冠状病毒病危机期间的经济简记。卷1
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3632153
S. Zaidi, Numair Jadoon, A. Haider, Wali Ullah, A. Hyder, Shagufta Shabbar, Asim Bashir Khan
{"title":"eBook Short Notes on the Economy during the COVID-19 Crisis. Vol-1","authors":"S. Zaidi, Numair Jadoon, A. Haider, Wali Ullah, A. Hyder, Shagufta Shabbar, Asim Bashir Khan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3632153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3632153","url":null,"abstract":"This eBook is an effort for extraordinary times. COVID-19 has already spread and still spreading human woes around the globe. The loss and damage to the human life, the economic impact, emotional and psychological burden, losses in businesses and many other impacts are unknowable. The objects of this eBook are: to provide policy advise on upcoming global recession, to measure the impact on trade, to examine and to provide analysis of emotional and psychological burden on households and society, commentary and suggestive measures for monetary and fiscal policy; and even much more. We are living in exceptionally difficult times with too much uncertainty—even once this pandemic is gone the pains, sufferings and losses will remain for a longer period of time. <br>","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124059752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
«Эффект колеи» в развитии социально-экономического пространства региона. Часть 1: «Эффект колеи» и локальный кризис в Челябинской области (‘Path Dependence’ in Developing Socio-Economic Space of the Region. Part 1: ‘Path Dependence’ and the Local Crisis in the Chelyabinsk Region)
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-02-17 DOI: 10.22394/1996-0522-2019-5-84-97
S. Gordeev, S. Ziryanov, A. Podoprigora
{"title":"«Эффект колеи» в развитии социально-экономического пространства региона. Часть 1: «Эффект колеи» и локальный кризис в Челябинской области (‘Path Dependence’ in Developing Socio-Economic Space of the Region. Part 1: ‘Path Dependence’ and the Local Crisis in the Chelyabinsk Region)","authors":"S. Gordeev, S. Ziryanov, A. Podoprigora","doi":"10.22394/1996-0522-2019-5-84-97","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1996-0522-2019-5-84-97","url":null,"abstract":"Russian Abstract: В статье рассматривается присущая многим регионам России в кризисных условиях неоднородность, а в ряде случаев и разнонаправленность основных тенденций их социально-экономического развития. В значительной мере это обусловлено проявлением так называемого «эффекта колеи» или институциональной инерции, препятствующей необходимым и актуальным изменениям из-за доминирования при вхождении региона в кризисную ситуацию прежней траектории и парадигмы его развития. \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: The article considers the heterogeneity inherent in many Russia’s regions in the context of the crisis, and in some cases the multidirectionality of the main trends in their socio-economic development. To a large extent, this is due to the manifestation of the so-called “path dependence” or institutional inertia, which impedes the necessary and relevant changes due to the dominance of the previous trajectory and paradigm of its development when the region enters the crisis.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"78 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129342119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries 冲突和政治不稳定对发展中国家银行危机的影响
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513530055.001.A001
Rasmane Ouedraogo, Montfort Mlachila, Windemanegda Sandrine Sourouema, A. Compaoré
{"title":"The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries","authors":"Rasmane Ouedraogo, Montfort Mlachila, Windemanegda Sandrine Sourouema, A. Compaoré","doi":"10.5089/9781513530055.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513530055.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of banking crises in developing countries. The paper provides strong evidence that conflicts and political instability are indeed associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively associated with rising probability of a banking crisis. Interestingly, the paper also finds that conflicts and political instability in one country can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries’ banking systems. The paper provides evidence that the primary channel of transmission is the occurrence of fiscal crises following a conflict or political instability.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123299631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
Payment vs. Funding: The Law of Reflux for Today 付款vs.融资:当今的回流法则
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.36687/inetwp113
Perry Mehrling
{"title":"Payment vs. Funding: The Law of Reflux for Today","authors":"Perry Mehrling","doi":"10.36687/inetwp113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp113","url":null,"abstract":"The analytical tension in post-Keynesian thought between the theory of endogenous (credit) money and the theory of liquidity preference, brought to our attention by Dow and Dow (1989), can be viewed through the lens of the money view (Mehrling 2013) as a particular case of the balance between the elasticity of payment and the discipline of funding. Further, updating Fullarton’s 1844 “law of reflux” for the modern condition of financial globalization and market based credit, the same money view lens offers a critical entry point into Tobin’s fateful 1963 intervention “Commercial Banks as Creators of ‘Money’” which established post-war orthodoxy, and also to the challenge offered by so-called Modern Money Theory.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131807083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach 前瞻性指导与期望形成:一种叙事方法
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3522229
Christopher S. Sutherland
{"title":"Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach","authors":"Christopher S. Sutherland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3522229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3522229","url":null,"abstract":"Les indications prospectives des banques centrales sont une declaration dans laquelle ces dernieres donnent des informations directes sur l’orientation probable de la politique monetaire. Elles ont pour objectif d’influencer les anticipations de taux d’interet. Mais comment y parviennent-elles au juste?  \u0000 \u0000Pour etudier cette question, j’ai produit des donnees comprenant les indications prospectives et leurs attributs, les projections et les assouplissements quantitatifs de banques centrales, que je combine ensuite avec des donnees d’enquete.  \u0000 \u0000Je constate qu’en reaction a une modification des indications prospectives, les previsionnistes modifient en moyenne de 5 points de base (0,05 %) leurs previsions de taux d’interet dans la direction voulue. Le resultat n’est pas attribuable aux effets des informations des banques centrales : pour former leurs anticipations a l’egard des taux, les previsionnistes ne tiennent compte que de leurs propres previsions d’inflation et de croissance, negligeant celles de la banque centrale. Je demontre aussi que les indications prospectives odysseennes (avec engagement) sont extremement rares, mais qu’elles peuvent beaucoup amplifier les effets sur la formation des anticipations.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132077993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The Empirics of Canadian Government Securities Yields 加拿大政府债券收益率的实证分析
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3520906
Tanweer Akram, A. Das
{"title":"The Empirics of Canadian Government Securities Yields","authors":"Tanweer Akram, A. Das","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520906","url":null,"abstract":"Keynes argued that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate. This paper empirically models the relationship between short-term interest rates and long-term government securities yields in Canada, after controlling for other important financial variables. The statistical analysis uses high-frequency daily data from 1990 to 2018. It applies both the cointegration technique and Granger causality within the vector error correction (VEC) framework. The empirical results suggest that the action of the monetary authority is an important determinant of Canadian government securities yields, which supports the Keynesian perspective. These findings have important implications for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133405804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil 经济不确定性波动与货币政策冲击传导:使用巴西每日调查的证据
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3479470
Rafael Burjack, Ritong Qu, A. Timmermann
{"title":"Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil","authors":"Rafael Burjack, Ritong Qu, A. Timmermann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3479470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3479470","url":null,"abstract":"We use a unique Brazilian dataset on daily survey expectations to obtain direct measures of shocks to central bank target rates and changes in economic uncertainty. Using these measures, we gauge the effect of monetary policy shocks on economic uncertainty, term premia, inflation expectations, and bond yields in Brazil. We find strong evidence that inflation uncertainty is key to transmitting monetary policy shocks to the yield curve via time-varying term premia. Finally, Fed announcements have sizeable spillover effects on the Brazilian bond market, as positive shocks to US yields significantly raise term premia in Brazil through elevated exchange rate risk.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"286 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127720521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
(Dis)Solving the Zero Lower Bound Equilibrium Through Income Policy (四)通过收入政策解决零下限均衡
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3756405
G. Ascari, Jacopo Bonchi
{"title":"(Dis)Solving the Zero Lower Bound Equilibrium Through Income Policy","authors":"G. Ascari, Jacopo Bonchi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3756405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3756405","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the possibility to reflate an economy experiencing a long-lasting zero lower bound episode with subdued or negative inflation, by imposing a minimum level of wage inflation. Our proposed income policy relies on the same mechanism behind past disinflationary policies, but it works in the opposite direction. It is formalized as a downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) such that wage inflation cannot be lower than a fraction of the inflation target. This policy allows to dissolve the zero lower bound steady state equilibrium in an OLG model featuring “secular stagnation” and in a infinite-life model, where this equilibrium emerges due to deflationary expectations.","PeriodicalId":382093,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies (Topic)","volume":"235 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122440923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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