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Impact of restrictions on the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Poland 限制措施对波兰COVID-19大流行形势的影响
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0034
Sergiusz Herman
{"title":"Impact of restrictions on the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Poland","authors":"Sergiusz Herman","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on public health all over the world. In order to prevent the spread of the virus, the majority of countries introduced restrictions which entailed considerable economic and social costs. The main goal of the article is to study how the lockdown introduced in Poland affected the spread of the pandemic in the country. The study used synthetic control method to this end. The analysis was carried on the basis of data from the Local Data Bank and a government website on the state of the epidemic in Poland. The results indicated that the lockdown significantly curbed the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Restrictions led to the substantial drop in infections – by 9500 cases – in three weeks. The results seem to stay the same despite the change of assumptions in the study. Such conclusion can be drawn from the performance of the placebo-in-space and placebo-in-time analyses.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"127 - 146"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46515929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interval shrinkage estimation of the parameter of exponential distribution in the presence of outliers under loss functions 损失函数下存在异常值时指数分布参数的区间收缩估计
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0030
P. Nasiri
{"title":"Interval shrinkage estimation of the parameter of exponential distribution in the presence of outliers under loss functions","authors":"P. Nasiri","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0030","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we studied estimators based on an interval shrinkage with equal weights point shrinkage estimators for all individual target points ¯θ ∈ (θ0,θ1) for exponentially distributed observations in the presence of outliers drawn from a uniform distribution. Estimators obtained from both shrinkage and interval shrinkage were compared, showing that the estimators obtained via the interval shrinkage method perform better. Symmetric and asymmetric loss functions were also used to calculate the estimators. Finally, a numerical study and illustrative examples were provided to describe the results.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"65 - 78"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46116329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Poisson area-biased Ailamujia Distribution and its applications in environmental and medical sciences 泊松区域偏倚的Ailamujia分布及其在环境和医学中的应用
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0036
Ahmad Aijaz, S. Q. Ain, Ahmad Afaq, Rajnee Tripathi
{"title":"Poisson area-biased Ailamujia Distribution and its applications in environmental and medical sciences","authors":"Ahmad Aijaz, S. Q. Ain, Ahmad Afaq, Rajnee Tripathi","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, a new Poisson area-biased Ailamujia distribution has been formulated to analyse count data. It was created by combining two distributions: the Poisson and area-biased Ailamujia distributions, using the compounding technique. Several distributional properties of the formulated distribution were studied. Its ageing characteristics were determined and expressed explicitly. A variety of diagrams were used to demonstrate the characteristics of the probability mass function (pmf) and the cumulative distribution function (cdf). The parameter of the developed model was estimated by employing the maximum likelihood estimation approach. Finally, two data sets were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the investigated distribution.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"167 - 184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45631268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Triads or tetrads? Comparison of two methods for measuring the similarity in preferences under incomplete block design 三和弦还是四和弦?不完全块设计下两种偏好相似性测量方法的比较
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0037
A. Zaborski
{"title":"Triads or tetrads? Comparison of two methods for measuring the similarity in preferences under incomplete block design","authors":"A. Zaborski","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0037","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The measurement of preferences can be based on historical observations of consumer behaviour or on data describing consumer intentions. In the latter case, the measure-ment of preferences is performed using methods which express consumer attitudes at the time of research. However, most of these methods are very laborious, especially when a large number of objects is tested. In such cases incomplete analyses may prove useful. An incomplete analysis involves the division of objects into subgroups, so that each pair of objects appears at exactly the same frequency and all objects are in each subgroup. The purpose of the work is to compare two incomplete methods for measuring the similarity of preferences, i.e. the triad method and the tetrad method. These methods can be used whenever similarities are measured on an ordinal scale. They have been com-pared in terms of their labour intensity and ability to map the known structure of ob-jects, even when all pairs of objects in subgroups cannot be presented equally frequent-ly.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"185 - 198"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44953330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the effect of new data sources on the consumer price index: a deterministic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity 评估新数据来源对消费者价格指数的影响:不确定性和敏感性的确定性方法
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0027
Jacek Białek, T. Panek, J. Zwierzchowski
{"title":"Assessing the effect of new data sources on the consumer price index: a deterministic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity","authors":"Jacek Białek, T. Panek, J. Zwierzchowski","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract One of the greatest challenges facing official statistics in the 21st century is the use of alternative sources of data about prices (scanned and scraped data) in the analysis of price dynamics, which also involves selecting the appropriate formula of the price index at the elementary group (5-digit) level. When consumer price indices of goods and services are constructed, a number of subjective decisions are made at different stages, e.g. regarding the choice of data sources and types of indices used for the purpose of estimation. All of these decisions can affect the bias of consumer price indices, i.e. the extent to which they contribute to the overall uncertainty about the resulting index values. By measuring how robust consumer price indices are, one can assess the impact that the decisions made at the different stages of index construction have on the index values. This assessment involves analysing uncertainty and sensitivity. The purpose of the study described in the article was to determine how much and in which direction the consumer price index changes when including scanner and scraped data in the analysis, in addition to the data on prices collected by enumerators. The impact of these new data sources was assessed by analysing uncertainty and sensitivity under the deterministic approach. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is a novel application of robustness analysis to measure inflation using new data sources. The empirical study was based on data for February and March 2021, while scanner and scraped data about selected categories of food products were obtained from one retail chain operating hundreds of points of sale in Poland and selling products online. It was found that the choice of a data source has the most significant impact on the final value of the index at the elementary group level, while the choice of the aggregation formula used to consolidate different data sources is of secondary importance.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"1 - 25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43800585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimation of P(X ≤ Y) for discrete distributions with non-identical support 具有非完全支持的离散分布的P（X≤Y）的估计
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0029
M. Choudhury, Rahul Bhattacharya, Sudhansu S. Maiti
{"title":"Estimation of P(X ≤ Y) for discrete distributions with non-identical support","authors":"M. Choudhury, Rahul Bhattacharya, Sudhansu S. Maiti","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased (UMVU) and the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimations of R = P(X ≤ Y) and the associated variance are considered for independent discrete random variables X and Y. Assuming a discrete uniform distribution for X and the distribution of Y as a member of the discrete one parameter exponential family of distributions, theoretical expressions of such quantities are derived. Similar expressions are obtained when X and Y interchange their roles and both variables are from the discrete uniform distribution. A simulation study is carried out to compare the estimators numerically. A real application based on demand-supply system data is provided.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"43 - 64"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44914599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comparison of the method of moments estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the success probability in the Fibonacci-type probability distribution Fibonacci型概率分布中成功概率的矩估计和最大似然估计方法的比较
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0028
Yeil Kwon
{"title":"A comparison of the method of moments estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the success probability in the Fibonacci-type probability distribution","authors":"Yeil Kwon","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0028","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A Fibonacci-type probability distribution provides the probabilistic models for establishing stopping rules associated with the number of consecutive successes. It can be interpreted as a generalized version of a geometric distribution. In this article, after revisiting the Fibonacci-type probability distribution to explore its definition, moments and properties, we proposed numerical methods to obtain two estimators of the success probability: the method of moments estimator (MME) and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). The ways both of them performed were compared in terms of the mean squared error. A numerical study demon-srated that the MLE tends to outperform the MME for most of the parameter space with various sample sizes.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"27 - 47"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47363583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Laureates of the Jerzy Spława-Neyman Medal Jerzy Spława Neyman奖章获得者
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0025
C. Domański
{"title":"Laureates of the Jerzy Spława-Neyman Medal","authors":"C. Domański","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41561172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ARFURIMA models: simulations of their properties and application ARFURIMA模型:其特性和应用的模拟
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0017
S. A. Jibrin, Rosmanjawati Binti Abdul Rahman
{"title":"ARFURIMA models: simulations of their properties and application","authors":"S. A. Jibrin, Rosmanjawati Binti Abdul Rahman","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article defines the Autoregressive Fractional Unit Root Integrated Moving Average (ARFURIMA) model for modelling ILM time series with fractional difference value in the interval of 1 < d < 2. The performance of the ARFURIMA model is examined through a Monte Carlo simulation. Also, some applications were presented using the energy series, bitcoin exchange rates and some financial data to compare the performance of the ARFURIMA and the Semiparametric Fractional Autoregressive Moving Average (SEMIFARMA) models. Findings showed that the ARFURIMA outperformed the SEMIFARMA model. The study’s conclusion provides another perspective in analysing large time series data for modelling and forecasting, and the findings suggest that the ARFURIMA model should be applied if the studied data show a type of ILM process with a degree of fractional difference in the interval of 1 < d < 2.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"69 - 87"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45664185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regression model of water demand for the city of Lodz as a function of atmospheric factors 罗兹市需水量随大气因子的回归模型
Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/stattrans-2022-0021
C. Domański, R. Kubacki
{"title":"Regression model of water demand for the city of Lodz as a function of atmospheric factors","authors":"C. Domański, R. Kubacki","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract One of the Sustainable Development Goals (Goal 6) set by the United Nations is to provide people with access to water and sanitation through sustainable water resources management. Water supply companies carrying out tasks commissioned by local authorities ensure there is an optimal amount of water in the water supply system. The aim of this study is to present the results of the work on a statistical model which determined the influence of individual atmospheric factors on the demand for water in the city of Lodz, Poland, in 2010-2019. In order to build the model, the study used data from the Water Supply and Sewage System Company (Zakład Wodociągów i Kanalizacji Sp. z o.o.) in the city of Lodz complemented with data on weather conditions in the studied period. The analysis showed that the constructed models make it possible to perform a forecast of water demand depending on the expected weather conditions.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"153 - 161"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46259469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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