Impact of restrictions on the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Poland

Q4 Mathematics

Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.2478/stattrans-2022-0034

Sergiusz Herman

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on public health all over the world. In order to prevent the spread of the virus, the majority of countries introduced restrictions which entailed considerable economic and social costs. The main goal of the article is to study how the lockdown introduced in Poland affected the spread of the pandemic in the country. The study used synthetic control method to this end. The analysis was carried on the basis of data from the Local Data Bank and a government website on the state of the epidemic in Poland. The results indicated that the lockdown significantly curbed the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Restrictions led to the substantial drop in infections – by 9500 cases – in three weeks. The results seem to stay the same despite the change of assumptions in the study. Such conclusion can be drawn from the performance of the placebo-in-space and placebo-in-time analyses.

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限制措施对波兰COVID-19大流行形势的影响

摘要新冠肺炎大流行对世界各地的公共卫生产生了重大影响。为了防止病毒传播，大多数国家采取了限制措施，这需要付出相当大的经济和社会代价。这篇文章的主要目的是研究波兰实施的封锁如何影响疫情在该国的传播。为此，本研究采用了综合控制方法。这项分析是根据当地数据库和波兰政府网站的数据进行的。结果表明，封锁显著遏制了新冠肺炎疫情在波兰的传播。限制措施导致感染人数在三周内大幅下降，减少了9500例。尽管研究中的假设发生了变化，但结果似乎保持不变。这一结论可以从安慰剂在空间和时间分析中的表现中得出。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Statistics in Transition Decision Sciences-Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

9 weeks

期刊介绍： Statistics in Transition (SiT) is an international journal published jointly by the Polish Statistical Association (PTS) and the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO/GUS), which sponsors this publication. Launched in 1993, it was issued twice a year until 2006; since then it appears - under a slightly changed title, Statistics in Transition new series - three times a year; and after 2013 as a regular quarterly journal." The journal provides a forum for exchange of ideas and experience amongst members of international community of statisticians, data producers and users, including researchers, teachers, policy makers and the general public. Its initially dominating focus on statistical issues pertinent to transition from centrally planned to a market-oriented economy has gradually been extended to embracing statistical problems related to development and modernization of the system of public (official) statistics, in general.