International Journal of Microsimulation最新文献

{"title":"Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Monetary Child Poverty in Morocco","authors":"T. Abdelkhalek, D. Boccanfuso, L. Savard","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00268","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 pandemic had a very quick and damaging impact on several economies around the world, including in Morocco. This economy was hit hard with some sectors strongly exposed to the impact on the households and their children. In this article, we built a micro-simulation model and use it jointly with an input-output model to assess the distributional impact of COVID-19 and mitigation measures targeting households in Morocco with a focus on children living in poor households. Our original results show that the crisis has led to a fairly significant increase in poverty, with more pronounced effects in the urban area. Children under 5 years of age and young adults (over 18 years of age) are the most affected. Just over half a million children under the age of 18 would fall into poverty as a result of the pandemic. The mitigation measures put in place by the government and additional measures we designed and simulated further reduce the negative impact of the pandemic. In addition, the number of vulnerable rural population has decreased in both rural and urban areas. However, the two scenarios focusing on mitigation of the effects of the pandemic do not fully compensate for the negative effects of the pandemic in the urban area as opposed to rural areas. When we focus our analysis by age category, the incidence rates of vulnerability decrease to their initial rates for children under 5 years of age and decrease very slightly for youth aged 5 to 17 years at the national level. However, we find that this vulnerability is deeper and more severe even after the implementation of compensatory measures © 2022, Abdelkhalek et al","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48529561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulations of Policy Responses and Interventions to Promote Inclusive Adaptation to and Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis in Ecuador","authors":"C. Canelas, J. Robalino","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00271","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 has had a devastating effect on the economy and the health of households around the world. In this study, we evaluate the economic impact of COVID-19, as well as the effect of government interventions aimed at alleviating it, on the welfare of Ecuadorian households in terms of income shocks, poverty rates, and inequality. The empirical strategy used is to measure mean income shock by gender and economic sector based on cross-sectional data from December 2019, May 2020, and September 2020, and use these estimates to simulate individual income shocks from the December 2019 data. This allows us to disaggregate our analysis by demographic and employment profile in order to identify groups at risk and help guide future government COVID recovery programs. We find that by May 2019, poverty had more than doubled, reaching 57%, and average income had fallen by more than 50%. Informal workers, rural populations, indigenous households, and households with young kids were among those most affected. Government interventions thus far have had a negligible effect in the aggregate, but they may have been crucial for the subsistence of households below the poverty line © 2022, Canelas and Robalino","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44666702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Locally-Led Simulation Analyses: Covid-19 Impacts and Responses for Equity in Developing Countries","authors":"L. Savard, L. Tiberti","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00266","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has been a global catastrophe with radical impacts triggering policy responses worldwide.1 Literature on the topic has been unanimous on the deleterious effects of this crisis on the global and national economies, and on poverty, particularly in low-income countries (Miguel and Mobarak, 2022). With varying degrees in terms of the size and nature of packages, countries have put in place measures to mitigate some of the likely devastating impacts of the pandemic. To avoid critical waste of time and resources, simultaneous efforts needed to be invested in assessing the impacts and effectiveness of these interventions, including through the development of country-adapted analytical tools that can produce periodic updates for policy adjustments © 2022, Savard and Tiberti","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48203419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agent-based Multi-layer Network Simulations for Financial Systemic Risk Measurement: a Proposal for Future Developments","authors":"Luca Riccetti","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00262","url":null,"abstract":"The paper addresses the topic of measuring the systemic risk and of identifying Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) with an agent- based multi- layer network simulation. The paper starts from the shortcomings of the models currently proposed in the literature and suggests directions for future researches and guidelines to realize a methodology able to accurately model the direct network contagion channel (interconnectedness of balance sheet of financial institutions, including direct losses and liquidity hoarding), also integrating the indirect contagion channel (fire sales and bank runs), in order to reach the full representation of the financial systemic risk.","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46530481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Development of a Microsimulation Model (MitoMOD) to Estimate the Economic Impact of Mitochondrial Disease in Adults","authors":"Deborah Schofield, Ka-Tong Lim, Owen Tan, R. Shrestha, S. Haque, Karen Crawley, Sarah West, Adam M. Percival, Jayamala Parmar, Joshua Kraindler, Jinjing Li, R. Tanton, C. Sue","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00265","url":null,"abstract":"Mitochondrial diseases (MITO) are serious and debilitating conditions, often multisys-temic and requiring life- long monitoring and treatment of symptoms to reduce the risk of a life-threatening episode or acute illness. The disease is caused by mutations either in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) or nuclear DNA (nDNA), resulting in impaired production of cellular energy from the affected mitochondrial organelles. MITO closely resembles other conditions due to its wide clinical presentation and genetic heterogeneity. While mitochondrial diseases are relatively common serious conditions with likely large medical and social costs to patients, carers and government, there is no microsimulation model of the impacts of this condition. Further, there is relatively little data on the medical costs of mitochondrial diseases and almost no data on social costs. What data there is on health costs has serious limitations and costs may be significantly underestimated. We aim to address this gap with the development of a microsimulation model called MitoMOD to estimate the costs of mitochondrial diseases using a cohort of clinically diagnosed adult patients with mitochondrial diseases as the base population. In this paper, we describe the construction of MitoMOD which is designed to capture economic impacts on adults clinically diagnosed with mitochondrial diseases, their carer and government. To date, this is the first microsimulation model of its kind. from a cohort of clinically diagnosed adult MITO participants. We took a broad perspective antici-pating a large range of economic and social impacts of MITO occurring at the patient, family, health service, and whole- of- government level. Our microsimulation model can be used in future studies to report the health and social costs of MITO and to estimate the cost- effectiveness of whole genome sequencing (WGS) compared to current diagnostic tests.","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49289581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combining Microsimulation and Numerical Maximization to Identify Optimal Tax-Transfer Rules","authors":"U. Colombino, N. Islam","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00261","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we propose a computational approach to empirical optimal taxation. We develop and estimate a microeconometric model that is run to simulate household labour supply decisions and the implied economic, fiscal and welfare effects. The microsimulation is embedded into a numerical optimization routine that identifies the tax- transfer rule that maximizes a social welfare function. We consider the class of tax- transfer rules where net available income is computed as a 4th degree polynomial transformation of taxable income plus a transfer. We present the results for six European countries: Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and the United Kingdom. For most values of the inequality aversion parameter k that characterizes the social welfare function, the optimized rules provide a higher social welfare than the current rule, with the exception of Luxembourg. The optimized tax- transfer rules are close to a Flat Tax plus a Universal Basic Income (or equivalently a Negative Income Tax).","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43911649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Spatially-explicit Microsimulation Analysis of a Proposed Sugar Tax in the Australian Capital Territory","authors":"A. Richardson, Aparna Lal, B. Phillips, Richard Webster","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00242","url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to estimate the spatially explicit impact of a 20% proposed tax on sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption across small areas within the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The study is important in the context of informing ongoing debate around a proposal to introduce a 20% tax on the sugar content of SSBs. A microsimulation analysis was used to estimate current expenditure on SSBs and the impact of a tax at a small area level across the ACT. Population data from the Census was used to weight survey data from the Household Expenditure Survey. A microsimulation model was then applied to the data to estimate current expenditure on SSBs, and the tax impact of a 20% sugar tax on SSBs. The impact of a sugar tax falls unequally across regions of the ACT with the tax impact representing a higher proportion of income for areas with lower socioeconomic advantage. The current expenditure ($/household/annum) averaged around $300 and the tax impact of the proposed sugar tax as a percentage of income averaged around 0.12%/household/ annum. The unequal distribution of tax impact estimated by the model suggests that coupling the tax with targeted exercise and nutrition programs as well as systemic change will both be required to reduce inequalities and increase the likelihood of positive health outcomes around overweight and obesity and related conditions. at a small- area level. We also examine the differences in impact according to area- level socio- economic disadvantage.","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46786147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Incidence of Value Added Tax on Households Income: New Evidence from Italy","authors":"C. Cirillo, Lucia Imperioli, Marco Manzo","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00243","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the incidence of the Value Added Tax (VAT) on Italian households income. To address this question, we developed a non- behavioural microsimulation model, the Value Added Tax Simulation Model (VATSIM- DF II). The goals of VATSIM- DF (II) are to estimate actual and expected VAT revenues, assess the VAT incidence on households disposable income, and simulate the distributional effects of changes in fiscal policies in Italy. Compared to existing models, the main achievements of this study are: (i) the creation of a unique original dataset, which includes tax register data; (ii) the implementation of a matching procedure, based on Tax Register data, which outperforms other data fusion strategies used in the existing literature. These innovations allow us to create a reliable and unique dataset to simulate changes in VAT and to produce results consistent with the most updated macroeconomic data. We tested our model, at current VAT legislation, and we show the VAT burden on Italian households confirming the regressivity of VAT. Finally, we analyse the effect of a revenue neutral reform, with two VAT rates, which applies the reduced VAT rate also to female and babies sanitary products. (ii) the adjustment of survey data on income and consumption to National Accounts data at the year of the simulation, which makes our estimations on VAT extremely coherent with the most updated macroeconomic data. To the best of our knowledge, there are not existing models in Italy with these features and this makes VATSIM- DF (II) a promising tool for reliable microsimulations about the distributional effects of VAT. We show that the procedure we used to create the dataset VATIC 2019, outperforms other methods used in the literature about microsimulation models in Italy. Also, we show an application of our model by testing a revenue neutral reform with two VAT rates. The reform consists only of two rates: a reduced VAT rate of 7% and an ordinary VAT rate of 20%. In addition to other basic goods, the reduced VAT rate is also applied to female sanitary towels and babies nappies. We show that this reform does not strongly affect the VAT burden on households. Conversely, it benefits low- income households reducing the VAT burden for basic goods and services (e.g. food and non-alcoholic beverages; clothing and footwear; and housing, water, gas, electricity and other fuels). However, the VAT burden on households visibly increases for restaurants and hotels, in particular for low- income households. A further extension of the VATSIM- DF (II) model, which will be described in a forthcoming paper, focuses on the behavioural effects produced by tax- shifts and changes in fiscal policies.","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49597492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial","authors":"","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00238","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42859933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Partition of the Life Course: An Extended Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis","authors":"","doi":"10.34196/ijm.00241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00241","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37916,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Microsimulation","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44364585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}