调查增值税对家庭收入的影响:来自意大利的新证据

Q3 Social Sciences
C. Cirillo, Lucia Imperioli, Marco Manzo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了增值税对意大利家庭收入的影响。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个非行为微观模拟模型,即增值税模拟模型(VATSIM-DF II)。VATSIM-DF(II)的目标是估计实际和预期的增值税收入,评估增值税对家庭可支配收入的影响,并模拟意大利财政政策变化的分配效应。与现有模型相比,本研究的主要成果是:(i)创建了一个独特的原始数据集,其中包括税务登记数据;(ii)基于税务登记处数据实施匹配程序,该程序优于现有文献中使用的其他数据融合策略。这些创新使我们能够创建一个可靠且独特的数据集,以模拟增值税的变化,并产生与最新宏观经济数据一致的结果。我们在当前的增值税立法中测试了我们的模型,我们展示了意大利家庭的增值税负担,证实了增值税的回归性。最后,我们分析了两种增值税税率的收入中性改革的效果,该改革将降低的增值税税率也适用于女性和婴儿卫生用品。(ii)将收入和消费调查数据调整为模拟当年的国民账户数据,这使得我们对增值税的估计与最新的宏观经济数据极为一致。据我们所知,意大利还没有具有这些特征的现有模型,这使得VATSIM-DF(II)成为一个很有前途的工具,可以对增值税的分配效应进行可靠的微观模拟。我们表明,我们用于创建数据集VATIC 2019的程序优于意大利微观模拟模型文献中使用的其他方法。此外,我们通过测试两种增值税税率的收入中性改革,展示了我们的模型的应用。这项改革只包括两个税率:7%的减征增值税税率和20%的普通增值税税率。除了其他基本商品外,降低的增值税税率也适用于女性卫生巾和婴儿尿布。我们表明,这项改革不会对家庭的增值税负担产生强烈影响。相反,它有利于低收入家庭减轻基本商品和服务(如食品和非酒精饮料;服装和鞋类;住房、水、气、电和其他燃料)的增值税负担。然而,餐馆和酒店的家庭增值税负担明显增加,尤其是低收入家庭。VATSIM-DF(II)模型的进一步扩展,将在即将发表的论文中进行描述,重点关注税收变化和财政政策变化所产生的行为影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Investigating the Incidence of Value Added Tax on Households Income: New Evidence from Italy
This paper analyses the incidence of the Value Added Tax (VAT) on Italian households income. To address this question, we developed a non- behavioural microsimulation model, the Value Added Tax Simulation Model (VATSIM- DF II). The goals of VATSIM- DF (II) are to estimate actual and expected VAT revenues, assess the VAT incidence on households disposable income, and simulate the distributional effects of changes in fiscal policies in Italy. Compared to existing models, the main achievements of this study are: (i) the creation of a unique original dataset, which includes tax register data; (ii) the implementation of a matching procedure, based on Tax Register data, which outperforms other data fusion strategies used in the existing literature. These innovations allow us to create a reliable and unique dataset to simulate changes in VAT and to produce results consistent with the most updated macroeconomic data. We tested our model, at current VAT legislation, and we show the VAT burden on Italian households confirming the regressivity of VAT. Finally, we analyse the effect of a revenue neutral reform, with two VAT rates, which applies the reduced VAT rate also to female and babies sanitary products. (ii) the adjustment of survey data on income and consumption to National Accounts data at the year of the simulation, which makes our estimations on VAT extremely coherent with the most updated macroeconomic data. To the best of our knowledge, there are not existing models in Italy with these features and this makes VATSIM- DF (II) a promising tool for reliable microsimulations about the distributional effects of VAT. We show that the procedure we used to create the dataset VATIC 2019, outperforms other methods used in the literature about microsimulation models in Italy. Also, we show an application of our model by testing a revenue neutral reform with two VAT rates. The reform consists only of two rates: a reduced VAT rate of 7% and an ordinary VAT rate of 20%. In addition to other basic goods, the reduced VAT rate is also applied to female sanitary towels and babies nappies. We show that this reform does not strongly affect the VAT burden on households. Conversely, it benefits low- income households reducing the VAT burden for basic goods and services (e.g. food and non-alcoholic beverages; clothing and footwear; and housing, water, gas, electricity and other fuels). However, the VAT burden on households visibly increases for restaurants and hotels, in particular for low- income households. A further extension of the VATSIM- DF (II) model, which will be described in a forthcoming paper, focuses on the behavioural effects produced by tax- shifts and changes in fiscal policies.
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来源期刊
International Journal of Microsimulation
International Journal of Microsimulation Mathematics-Modeling and Simulation
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: The IJM covers research in all aspects of microsimulation modelling. It publishes high quality contributions making use of microsimulation models to address specific research questions in all scientific areas, as well as methodological and technical issues. IJM concern: the description, validation, benchmarking and replication of microsimulation models; results coming from microsimulation models, in particular policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis; technical or methodological aspect of microsimulation modelling; reviews of models and results, as well as of technical or methodological issues.
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