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Accounting for U.S. Post-War Economic Growth 美国战后经济增长的核算
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-05-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3611817
Fernando del Río, Francisco-Xavier Lores
{"title":"Accounting for U.S. Post-War Economic Growth","authors":"Fernando del Río, Francisco-Xavier Lores","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3611817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3611817","url":null,"abstract":"We develope a growth accounting method using the whole neoclassical growth model. We obtain three primary findings from our analysis of the U.S. economy during 1954-2017. First, the efficiency wedges in the entire period accurately account for the evolution of U.S. productivity and labor share. Second, the labor wedge was the main force driving the recovery of output and worked \u0000hours per capita in the eighties and nineties as well as after the Great Recession. Finally, if factor shares adjust competitively, the main force driving the U.S. growth slowdown of both the seventies and the first decade of this century was the capital-efficiency wedge \u0000and the forces driving the U.S. Great Recession are not very different from the forces working in other OECD economies and those driving the $1982$ Recession in the United States.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124068786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mathematical Model of the Supply Shock Crisis (COVID – 19) 供给冲击危机的数学模型(COVID - 19)
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3586627
A. Krouglov
{"title":"Mathematical Model of the Supply Shock Crisis (COVID – 19)","authors":"A. Krouglov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3586627","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3586627","url":null,"abstract":"Presented here is a simplified mathematical model describing a supply side crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID – 19). Model of a single-product economy is presented where the supply shock has a constant acceleration. If amount of the supply shock has a modest positive acceleration the product earnings are positive and increasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic growth. If amount of the supply shock has a large positive acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. If amount of the supply shock has a negative acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. Economic mechanism of the supply side crisis is conceptually close to a mechanism of economic growth caused by investment. Moreover, economic system is able to overcome a modest supply-side shock and provide economic growth there. Further, the system with the passage of time produces and delivers enough amount of product to both satisfy the demand and compensate for the supply-side shock.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121929972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International Risk Sharing in Emerging Economies 新兴经济体的国际风险分担
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3606501
Carlos A. Yépez
{"title":"International Risk Sharing in Emerging Economies","authors":"Carlos A. Yépez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3606501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3606501","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the apparent lack of insurance against country-specific risk observed internationally. Using a sample of 21 emerging and 21 advanced economies over the period 1980-2014, I document new evidence from international co-movements of prices and quantities suggesting that risk sharing is worse in emerging economies than in advanced economies. I then extend a standard international business cycle model to assess the implications of the “cycle is the trend” hypothesis for international risk sharing. I show that shocks to trend productivity growth provide a compelling explanation for the distinct risk-sharing features of emerging market economies. The findings of this study are relevant for the conduct of stabilization policy, as it critically depends on the nature of the shocks that affect an economy.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"355 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121710190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Interest Rates and Selection Along the Business Cycle 经济周期中的利率和选择
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2020-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3572799
Anastasios Dosis
{"title":"Interest Rates and Selection Along the Business Cycle","authors":"Anastasios Dosis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3572799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3572799","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of interest rates on market selection. Consistent with the evidence, I demonstrate that busts exhibit adverse selection, whereas booms ac- companied by ultra-low rates exhibit advantageous selection. Interestingly, booms accompanied by intermediate interest rates simultaneously exhibit adverse and ad- vantageous selection. Changes in interest rates affect selection and, hence, the quan- tity and quality of loans. When interest rates are endogenous, multiple equilibria arise, although higher interest rate equilibria imply more and better loans. Adverse selection attenuates the stimulatory effects of monetary policy, and zero interest rates can lead banks to hoard cash. Several extensions and robustness checks are applied.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129505680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women&Apos;S Employment 变化的商业周期:女性就业的角色
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25655
S. Albanesi
{"title":"Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women&Apos;S Employment","authors":"S. Albanesi","doi":"10.3386/W25655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25655","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the impact of changing trends in female labor supply on productivity, TFP growth and aggregate business cycles. We find that the growth in women’s labor supply and relative productivity added substantially to TFP growth from the early 1980s, even if it depressed average labor productivity growth, contributing to the 1970s productivity slowdown. We also show that the lower cyclicality of female hours and their growing share can account for a large fraction of the reduced cyclicality of aggregate hours during the great moderation, as well as the decline in the correlation between average labor productivity and hours. Finally, we show that the discontinued growth in female labor supply starting in the 1990s played a substantial role in the jobless recoveries following the 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions. Moreover, it depressed aggregate hours, output growth and male wages during the late 1990s and mid 2000s expansions. These results suggest that continued growth in female employment since the early 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130259405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia (Two Traditions in the Measurement of the Economic Cycle: General History and Developments in Colombia) 衡量经济周期的两种传统:哥伦比亚的通史和发展
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.21789/24222704.1432
Revista tiempo&economia, E. López
{"title":"Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia (Two Traditions in the Measurement of the Economic Cycle: General History and Developments in Colombia)","authors":"Revista tiempo&economia, E. López","doi":"10.21789/24222704.1432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21789/24222704.1432","url":null,"abstract":"Este trabajo analiza dos grandes tradiciones en la medicion del ciclo economico: los indicadores ciclicos y el calculo de variables agregadas no observadas (producto potencial, tasa de interes natural, tasa de desempleo natural y tasa de cambio de equilibrio) y de sus brechas asociadas. La primera tradicion, tambien conocida como la vision empirica del ciclo, debe mucho al esfuerzo del NBER y tuvo un gran desarrollo sobre todo en las economias avanzadas. En Colombia, se han hecho muchos trabajos en esa direccion. Sin embargo, pocos de estos sobreviven, con lo cual el pais ha perdido un instrumento valioso en el analisis de la coyuntura economica. El presente documento es la primera parte del trabajo completo y narra la historia de la primera tradicion.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123629627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bubbly Recessions 泡沫经济衰退
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-02-22 DOI: 10.21144/wp18-05
S. Biswas, A. Hanson, T. Phan
{"title":"Bubbly Recessions","authors":"S. Biswas, A. Hanson, T. Phan","doi":"10.21144/wp18-05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/wp18-05","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a tractable bubbles model with financial friction and downward wage rigidity. Competitive speculation in risky bubbles can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts, where post-bubble aggregate economic activities collapse below the pre-bubble trend. Risky bubbles can reduce ex ante social welfare, and leaning-against-the-bubble policies that balance the boom-bust trade-off can be warranted. We further show that the collapse of a bubble can push the economy into a “secular stagnation” equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent recession, such as the Japanese “lost decades.” (JEL E22, E24, E32, E44, L26)","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116840013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 29
A New Approach to Austrian Business Cycle Theory 奥地利经济周期理论新探
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3055121
D. Gorbatenko
{"title":"A New Approach to Austrian Business Cycle Theory","authors":"D. Gorbatenko","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3055121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3055121","url":null,"abstract":"The most prominent previous versions of Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) are analyzed with the conclusion that, while containing interesting insights, were excessively aggregative and based on confusing constructs. This work develops a more realistic version of ABCT centered on the actual mistaken investment projects that should lie at the heart of the cycle and the errors that lead to them. The resulting theory is then illustrated by means of a computer model in order to verify the logical coherence of the core mechanism and unearth the potential tacit assumptions. Finally, a methodology is proposed for applying it to particular historical episodes, and the U.S. Great Recession and the run-up to it are considered in its light. There is considerable evidence from those events suggesting that there was a cluster of ABCT-described projects in non-residential construction and a cluster of associated troubled loans. While the cluster appears to be insufficient in itself to explain the scale of the U.S. Great Recession, the finding is still significant given that the bulk of excess credit during the preceding phase was not allocated to it.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121646424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
To Be or Not to Be During Recession: Do Economic Fluctuations Have an Influence on the Suicide Mortality Rate? 在经济衰退中生存还是死亡:经济波动对自杀死亡率有影响吗?
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3033913
D. Kolesnik
{"title":"To Be or Not to Be During Recession: Do Economic Fluctuations Have an Influence on the Suicide Mortality Rate?","authors":"D. Kolesnik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3033913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3033913","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the influence of economic upturns and downturns on suicide mortality rate of men in Russian regions in the period from 2006 to 2013. The author uses real GRP per head, Gini coefficient, alcohol sales, demographic burden (and squared), birth rate, unemployment rate, GRP growth rate (current and lagged), number of physicians and divorce rate as independent variables in fixed effects models. In result the hypothesis of the role of economic fluctuations confirms. In addition, demographic burden and birth rate are significant for suicide behavior. Moreover, this paper reflects the difference between urban and rural population in terms of significance of variables and shows the double effect that demographic burden cause to the suicide behavior.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125374487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Effect of Credit Supply Shocks on Economic Activity: A Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach 信贷供给冲击对经济活动的影响:一个阈值向量自回归方法
ERN: Business Cycles (Topic) Pub Date : 2017-06-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3330077
Joshua R. Wojnilower
{"title":"The Effect of Credit Supply Shocks on Economic Activity: A Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach","authors":"Joshua R. Wojnilower","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3330077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3330077","url":null,"abstract":"Following the recent U.S. financial crisis, a new generation of macroeconomic models considers theoretical constraints to the supply of credit. Concurrently, a growing body of literature demonstrates existence of a nonlinear relationship between credit market conditions, monetary policy, and real economic activity. This paper uses threshold vector autoregressions (TVARs) to determine if the relationship between the supply of credit and the real economy changed over time and under different credit market conditions during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that a quantitatively important relationship between the supply of credit and real economic activity existed during the entire era and separate from periods of financial stress. Findings, however, also offer evidence that the indirect effect of changes in the supply of credit on real economic activity, operating through their effect on macro risk premia, became quantitatively more important during periods of financial stress in the twenty-first century.","PeriodicalId":379040,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Business Cycles (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129834429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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